875
FXUS21 KWNC 241928
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EST FEBRUARY 24 2026
SYNOPSIS: A PROGRESSIVE MID-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IS FORECAST ACROSS THE
CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) FAVORING ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER MANY AREAS,
ALTHOUGH ANOMALOUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHEAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD. ENHANCED PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND INTERIOR EASTERN CONUS TIED TO FRONTAL ACTIVITY,
WITH SOME REMAINING CONCERN FOR WINTRY WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AS THESE
SYSTEMS QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN
FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF MAINLAND ALASKA AND THE ALASKA PENINSULA, WITH ONSHORE
FLOW RESULTING IN RELATIVELY WARMER TEMPERATURES OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA, IN
ADDITION TO ELEVATED CHANCES OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND HIGH WINDS.
HAZARDS
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS, AND THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI, TENNESSEE, AND OHIO VALLEYS,
WED-SUN, MAR 4-8.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST,
WED, MAR 4.
SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST,
WED-THU, MAR 4-5.
SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF MAINLAND ALASKA
AND THE ALASKA PENINSULA, WED-TUE, MAR 4-10.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS ACROSS SOUTHERN COASTAL MAINLAND ALASKA AND SOUTHEAST
ALASKA, WED-TUE, MAR 4-10.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA, WED-FRI, MAR 4-6.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR FRIDAY FEBRUARY 27 - TUESDAY MARCH 03:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR WEDNESDAY MARCH 04 - TUESDAY MARCH 10: DURING WEEK-2, RIDGING AND POSITIVE
500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE PREDICTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS. CONVERSELY
NEGATIVE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT ANOMALIES AND BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ARE FAVORED ACROSS
CANADA EXTENDING INTO ALASKA. THIS SET-UP LEADS TO A PROGRESSIVE MID-LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS AND DECREASING CONFIDENCE REGARDING HAZARDOUS WEATHER.
PERIODIC SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES ARE FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS THE COUNTRY, WITH
FRONTALLY FOCUSED PRECIPITATION LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS EXTENDING INTO THE EAST-CENTRAL CONUS. GIVEN ANOMALOUSLY WARM
TEMPERATURES FORECAST, AREAS OF CONVECTION AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
BOTH THE GEFS AND ECMWF PROBABILISTIC EXTREMES TOOLS (PETS) DEPICT AT LEAST A
20 PERCENT CHANCE 3-DAY PRECIPITATION TOTALS EXCEED THE 85TH CLIMATOLOGICAL
PERCENTILE AND 1-INCH OVER THESE AREAS. THE UNCALIBRATED ECMWF ENSEMBLE DEPICTS
WEEK-2 TOTAL PRECIPITATION EXCEEDING 2-INCHES, WHILE THE GEFS AND CANADIAN
ENSEMBLES ARE SLIGHTLY DRIER. AS A RESULT, A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION
IS HIGHLIGHTED EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO PARTS OF THE
MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI, TENNESSEE, AND OHIO VALLEYS, MAR 4-8.
DYNAMICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A SHORT PERIOD OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. BEGINNING LATE IN WEEK-1 INTO THE EARLY PART OF
WEEK-2. THE ECMWF AND GEFS PETS DEPICT SOME AREAS OF NEW ENGLAND WITH AT LEAST
A 20 PERCENT CHANCE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW THE 10TH CLIMATOLOGICAL
PERCENTILE. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN IS REMAINING SNOW COVER TILTING TEMPERATURES
COLDER AND HIGH WINDS RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS WIND CHILL VALUES. THE ECMWF PET
DEPICTS AT LEAST A 20 PERCENT CHANCE WIND SPEEDS EXCEED THE 85TH CLIMATOLOGICAL
PERCENTILE AND 20-MPH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST EARLY IN WEEK-2, WITH
THE STRONGEST SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT PREDICTED ON DAY-8 (MAR 4)
CORRESPONDING WITH A SLIGHT RISK FOR HIGH WINDS. GIVEN THE INCREASED WINDS, THE
UNCALIBRATED ECMWF AND GEFS ENSEMBLES INDICATE AT LEAST A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF
WIND CHILL VALUES FALLING BELOW 0 DEG F ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER NORTHEAST,
WITH ELEVATED CHANCES FOR WIND CHILLS BELOW -20 DEG F OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. THEREFORE, A SLIGHT RISK FOR MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS
HIGHLIGHTED OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST AND NEW ENGLAND, MAR 4-5.
WITH THIS COLD AIR IN PLACE, THERE IS AN ELEVATED CONCERN FOR WINTRY WEATHER AS
UPSTREAM FRONTAL SYSTEMS IMPACTING THE CENTRAL U.S. QUICKLY MOVE EASTWARD.
HOWEVER, THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION IS FORECAST TO BE POSITIVE (+NAO), AND
WITH NO BLOCKING, ANY COLD AIR MAY BE EASILY DISPLACED. TIMING IS SUCH THAT A
SYSTEM IS PREDICTED TO MOVE THROUGH JUST PRIOR TO THE PERIOD, AND THEN AGAIN
AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE PERIOD (MAR 6-7). HOWEVER, GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED
CONCERNS, ALONG WITH A PREDICTED WARMING TREND HEADING FURTHER INTO MARCH, AND
GREATER UNCERTAINTY REGARDING A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL, NO RELATED
SNOW HAZARD IS POSTED.
TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE WESTWARD ACROSS ALASKA DURING
WEEK-2. WHILE THIS FAVORS A PERSISTENCE OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS
MUCH OF MAINLAND ALASKA AND THE ALASKA PENINSULA, RELATIVELY WARMER
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA TIED TO SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW. THERE IS INCREASING
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE AMPLITUDE OF THE COLD ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA AS
THE GEFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES ARE ABOUT 10-15 DEG F COLDER COMPARED TO THE
ECMWF ENSEMBLE. THE CORRESPONDING GEFS PET WOULD SUPPORT AN EXTENSION OF THE
MODERATE RISK OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES, HOWEVER, PAUSE IS GIVEN DUE TO
THE WEAKER SIGNAL IN THE ECMWF PET IN ADDITION TO AN INCREASING TEMPERATURE
CLIMATOLOGY MAKING IT HARDER TO REACH THE WINTER HAZARDS THRESHOLDS. A SLIGHT
RISK OF MUCH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAINS HIGHLIGHTED THROUGHOUT WEEK-2
ACROSS MOST OF THE MAINLAND INTO THE ALASKA PENINSULA.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA, ALONG WITH SUPPORT FROM THE ECMWF
PET, JUSTIFY A SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND AND
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FOR ALL OF WEEK-2. PRECIPITATION SIGNALS ALSO INCREASE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ALASKA IN THE PETS TIED TO THE INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW. BOTH THE GEFS
AND ECMWF PETS INDICATE PROBABILITIES OF GREATER THAN 20 PERCENT FOR 3-DAY
PRECIPITATION TOTALS EXCEEDING THE 85TH CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE AND 2-INCHES.
THE SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA IS VALID MAR
4-6, CORRESPONDING WITH THE HIGHEST DAILY TOTALS IN THE ENSEMBLES AND A
SOMEWHAT DECREASED SIGNAL IN THE PETS THEREAFTER. SOME OF THIS ENHANCED ONSHORE
FLOW MAY EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE
PERIOD, ALTHOUGH SIGNALS IN THE PETS ARE WEAK, PRECLUDING ANY RELATED HAZARDS
AT THIS TIME.
FORECASTER: THOMAS COLLOW
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