647
FXUS21 KWNC 251933
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EST FEBRUARY 25 2026
SYNOPSIS: DURING WEEK-2, A SIGNIFICANTLY WETTER PATTERN COMPARED TO THE PRIOR
FEW MONTHS IS FORECAST ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS INTO THE EAST-CENTRAL CONTIGUOUS
U.S. TIED TO AMPLIFYING MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE WEST, AND AN
ASSOCIATED PROGRESSION OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS LEADING TO INCREASED CHANCES OF HEAVY
PRECIPITATION AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS. A SUBSTANTIAL WARM-UP AND SPRING-LIKE
WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S TIED TO MID-LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF MAINLAND
ALASKA, WITH ONSHORE FLOW RESULTING IN DECREASING CHANCES OF HAZARDOUS COLD
OVER SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA, IN ADDITION TO ELEVATED CHANCES OF HEAVY
PRECIPITATION AND HIGH WINDS.
HAZARDS
MODERATE RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI, TENNESSEE, AND OHIO
VALLEYS, THU-SAT, MAR 5-7.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS, MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI, TENNESSEE, AND OHIO VALLEYS, AND THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES, THU-WED, MAR 5-11.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS, THU-WED, MAR
5-11.
SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHEASTERN
MAINLAND ALASKA, THU-WED, MAR 5-11.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS ACROSS SOUTHERN COASTAL MAINLAND ALASKA AND SOUTHEAST
ALASKA, THU-WED, MAR 5-11.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA, THU-FRI, MAR 5-6.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR SATURDAY FEBRUARY 28 - WEDNESDAY MARCH 04:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR THURSDAY MARCH 05 - WEDNESDAY MARCH 11: COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, THE 0Z ECMWF
AND GEFS ENSEMBLES INDICATE MORE AMPLIFIED 500-HPA TROUGHING ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS DURING WEEK-2. MID-LEVEL RIDGES ARE FORECAST ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS
FEATURE, OFF THE WEST COAST AND OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THIS EVOLUTION FAVORS A
MUCH WETTER PATTERN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS INTO THE EAST-CENTRAL
CONUS. WEEK-2 TOTAL PRECIPITATION IS OVER 3-INCHES FOR SOME OF THESE AREAS IN
THE 0Z GEFS ENSEMBLE, WITH THE ECMWF PROBABILISTIC EXTREMES TOOL (PET)
INDICATING AT LEAST A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF 3-DAY PRECIPITATION TOTALS EXCEEDING
THE 85TH CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE AND 1-INCH EARLY IN WEEK-2. MULTIPLE ROUNDS
OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION ARE POSSIBLE, WITH INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY AND THUNDERSTORMS, PARTICULARLY OVER MORE SOUTHERN AREAS. AS A RESULT
OF THESE INCREASED SIGNALS, A MODERATE RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS
HIGHLIGHTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND THE MIDDLE
AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI, TENNESSEE, AND OHIO VALLEYS, MAR 5-7. A BROADER AREA OF
SLIGHT RISK EXTENDS THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BASED ON UNCALIBRATED
PRECIPITATION TOTALS, AND IS VALID FOR ALL OF WEEK-2.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR A VERY WARM, SPRING-LIKE WEATHER PATTERN EMERGING
OVER THE EASTERN U.S., WITH MANY LOCATIONS HAVING TEMPERATURES 10-20 DEG F
ABOVE-NORMAL BASED ON THE UNCALIBRATED GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES. WHILE SOME
RELATIVELY COLDER WEATHER REMAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST AND
NEW ENGLAND LATE IN WEEK-1 INTO THE START OF WEEK-2, IT IS BECOMING MUCH LESS
LIKELY THAT COLD HAZARD CRITERIA WILL BE REACHED, ALLOWING A DISCONTINUATION OF
THE SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SOME SNOW OR WINTRY WEATHER
ALSO CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER THESE AREAS TIED TO PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES. HOWEVER, THE PROSPECTS FOR A WIDESPREAD, SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
DECREASE HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF MARCH GIVEN THE POSITIVE PHASE OF THE NORTH
ATLANTIC OSCILLATION (+NAO) AND THE TREND TOWARD WARMER TEMPERATURES.
ELEVATED WIND SPEEDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS TIED TO THE INCREASE
IN TROUGHING. THE ECMWF AND GEFS PETS DEPICT A BROAD REGION WITH AT LEAST A 20
PERCENT CHANCE OF WIND SPEEDS EXCEEDING THE 85TH CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE AND
20-MPH (25-MPH ALONG THE WEST COAST AND OVER PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS). THE
UNCALIBRATED MODELS GENERALLY AGREE WITH THE PETS, BUT ALSO SHOW A MORE
PRONOUNCED SIGNAL ACROSS COASTAL CALIFORNIA LIKELY TIED TO AN INCREASED
PRESSURE GRADIENT. GIVEN THE EXTENSIVE SPATIAL COVERAGE IN THE TOOLS, A SLIGHT
RISK FOR HIGH WINDS IS POSTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS FOR
ALL OF WEEK-2.
TROUGHING IS FORECAST ACROSS ALASKA DURING WEEK-2. WHILE THIS FAVORS A
PERSISTENCE OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF MAINLAND ALASKA,
HAZARDOUS COLD TEMPERATURES ARE LESS LIKELY OVER SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN
ALASKA TIED TO SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND INCREASING
ONSHORE FLOW. THERE IS INCREASING UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE AMPLITUDE OF THE
COLD ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA AS THE GEFS CONTINUES TO BE ABOUT 10 DEG F
COLDER THAN THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE, WITH A STRONGER SIGNAL IN ITS CORRESPONDING
PET. A SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAINS HIGHLIGHTED
THROUGHOUT WEEK-2 ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHEASTERN MAINLAND ALASKA, WITH
SOUTHERN COASTAL AND SOUTHEASTERN AREAS OF THE MAINLAND REMOVED.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA, ALONG WITH SUPPORT FROM THE ECMWF
WIND PET, JUSTIFY A SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND AND
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FOR ALL OF WEEK-2. PRECIPITATION SIGNALS REMAIN ELEVATED
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA IN THE PETS TIED TO THE INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW. BOTH
THE GEFS AND ECMWF PETS INDICATE PROBABILITIES OF GREATER THAN 20 PERCENT FOR
3-DAY PRECIPITATION TOTALS EXCEEDING THE 85TH CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE AND
2-INCHES. THEREFORE A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS CONTINUED ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ALASKA VALID MAR 5-6, CORRESPONDING WITH THE HIGHEST DAILY TOTALS IN
THE ENSEMBLES AND A SOMEWHAT DECREASED SIGNAL IN THE PETS THEREAFTER. SOME OF
THIS ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW MAY EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS,
ALTHOUGH SIGNALS IN THE PETS ARE WEAK FOR THIS REGION PRECLUDING ANY ADDITIONAL
RELATED HAZARDS AT THIS TIME.
FORECASTER: THOMAS COLLOW
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