207
FXUS21 KWNC 261919
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EST FEBRUARY 26 2026
SYNOPSIS: THERE IS VERY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS INDICATING HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST AND CENTRAL
CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS), LEADING TO INCREASED RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FROM
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL CONUS DURING WEEK-2. THIS HAZARD MAY LEAD TO
FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI, OHIO, AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS ASSOCIATED WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. A SERIES OF
SURFACE LOWS ACROSS THE WEST MAY SUPPORT EPISODES OF HIGH WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION AND POSSIBLY HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE CASCADES AND NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
ROCKIES AT THE BEGINNING OF WEEK-2. THERE IS AN INCREASED RISK OF MUCH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES PREDICTED ACROSS WESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA SOUTH OF THE
BROOKS RANGE. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA MAY LEAD TO HIGH
WINDS ACROSS SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA DURING WEEK-2, WITH HEAVY
PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA LINGERING FROM THE END OF WEEK-1 INTO
THE START OF WEEK-2.
HAZARDS
HIGH RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE, MIDDLE AND
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS AND SOUTHERN PLAINS, FRI-MON, MAR 6-9.
MODERATE RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS, LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION, AND THE MIDDLE AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI, TENNESSEE, AND OHIO VALLEYS, FRI-TUE, MAR 6-10.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS, MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI, TENNESSEE, AND OHIO VALLEYS, SOUTHEAST,
AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION, FRI-THU, MAR 6-12.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE CASCADES AND NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES,
FRI-SUN, MAR 6-8.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS, FRI-THU, MAR
6-12.
SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS WESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA
SOUTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE, FRI-MON, MAR 6-9.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS ACROSS SOUTHERN COASTAL MAINLAND ALASKA AND SOUTHEAST
ALASKA, FRI-THU, MAR 6-12.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA, FRI, MAR 6.
POSSIBLE FLOODING ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI, OHIO, AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR SUNDAY MARCH 01 - THURSDAY MARCH 05:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR FRIDAY MARCH 06 - THURSDAY MARCH 12: COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, THE 0Z ECMWF,
GEFS, AND CMCE ENSEMBLES INDICATE MORE AMPLIFIED 500-HPA TROUGHING ACROSS THE
INTERIOR WESTERN CONUS DURING WEEK-2. THIS TRANSLATES INTO MODEL GUIDANCE AND
TOOLS HAVING INCREASED SIGNALS FOR POTENTIALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION. A HIGH RISK
(>60% CHANCE) OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS DESIGNATED FOR PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE,
MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS AND SOUTHERN PLAINS, MAR 6-9. THIS
INCLUSION IS BASED ON GOOD DAY TO DAY MODEL CONSISTENCY, VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
AMONG MODELS INDICATING A MORE AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS, UNCALIBRATED ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE, AND THE ECENS PROBABILISTIC EXTREMES
TOOL (PET) INDICATING AT LEAST A 60% CHANCE OF 3-DAY PRECIPITATION TOTALS
EXCEEDING THE 85TH PERCENTILE CLIMATOLOGICALLY AND ONE INCH (TWO INCHES
LOCALLY). THE CORRESPONDING MODERATE RISK (40-60% CHANCE) AREA IS SLIGHTLY
EXPANDED COMPARED TO YESTERDAY TO INCLUDE PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST, CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS, LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION, AND THE MIDDLE AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI, TENNESSEE, AND OHIO VALLEYS THROUGH MAR 10. A BROADER SLIGHT RISK
(20-40% CHANCE) AREA INCLUDES EXTENSION INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION FOR
THE ENTIRETY OF WEEK-2. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION ARE POSSIBLE,
WITH INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND THUNDERSTORMS,
PARTICULARLY OVER MORE SOUTHERN AREAS. WEEKLY TOTALS MAY EXCEED 3 INCHES (4
INCHES LOCALLY). FOR THE OHIO VALLEY, RAIN WITH EXPECTED SNOWMELT FROM A SYSTEM
IN WEEK-1 WILL ELEVATE STREAMFLOWS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED RIVER
FLOODING IN WEEK-2. FOR THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND OZARKS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE IN WEEK-1 IS ANTICIPATED TO MOISTEN DRY SOILS, INCREASING THE RISK OF
FLASH AND ISOLATED RIVER FLOODING IN WEEK-2. THEREFORE, A POSSIBLE FLOOD RISK
IS DESIGNATED FOR PARTS OF THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI, OHIO, AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS.
TIED TO THE AFOREMENTIONED AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO ENHANCE ONSHORE FLOW,
HEAVY SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGH ELEVATIONS OF THE INTERIOR WEST. A SLIGHT
RISK OF HEAVY SNOW IS DESIGNATED FOR ACROSS THE CASCADES AND NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL ROCKIES, MAR 6-8. THE GEFS SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT PET SHOWS AT LEAST A
20% CHANCE OF 3-DAY LIQUID EQUIVALENT EXCEEDING THE 85TH PERCENTILE AND HALF AN
INCH (ONE INCH LOCALLY). A BROAD AREA ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS REMAINS
HIGHLIGHTED WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF EPISODIC HIGH WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
PATTERN ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE. THERE MAY BE SOME ENHANCED RISK FOR WILDFIRES
WHERE WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THE NATIONAL INTERAGENCY FIRE CENTER SHOWS A LOW RISK OF
SIGNIFICANT FIRE POTENTIAL AT THE END OF WEEK-1 LEADING INTO THE WEEK-2 PERIOD.
THE PETS SHOW AT LEAST A 20% CHANCE OF WIND SPEEDS EXCEEDING THE 85TH
PERCENTILE AND 20-MPH (25-MPH LOCALLY).
MID-LEVEL RIDGES ARE FORECAST ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS TROUGHING FEATURE, OFF THE
WEST COAST AND OVER THE EASTERN U.S. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR A VERY WARM,
SPRING-LIKE WEATHER PATTERN EMERGING OVER THE EASTERN U.S., WITH MANY LOCATIONS
HAVING TEMPERATURES 16 DEG F ABOVE-NORMAL BASED ON THE UNCALIBRATED GEFS AND
ECMWF ENSEMBLES. THE POSITIVE PHASE OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION (+NAO) IS
FAVORED FOR EARLY TO MID-MARCH SUPPORTING THE TREND TOWARD WARMER TEMPERATURES.
MID-LEVEL TROUGHING CONTINUES TO BE FORECAST ACROSS ALASKA DURING WEEK-2. THE
AREA DESIGNATED WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES HAS BEEN
REDUCED IN SPACE AND TIME TODAY DUE TO DECREASING SIGNALS OF COLD TEMPERATURES
REACHING HAZARDOUS CRITERIA. THIS HAZARD REMAINS DESIGNATED FOR THE WESTERN
MAINLAND SOUTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE MAR 6-9, WHERE PETS INDICATE AT LEAST A 20%
CHANCE OF MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FALLING TO THE LOWEST 10TH PERCENTILE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY AND LESS THAN -20 DEG F.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA, ALONG WITH SUPPORT FROM THE WIND
PETS SUPPORTS A SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND AND
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FOR ALL OF WEEK-2. PRECIPITATION SIGNALS REMAIN ELEVATED
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA IN THE PETS TIED TO THE INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW. BOTH
THE GEFS AND ECMWF PETS INDICATE PROBABILITIES OF GREATER THAN 20 PERCENT FOR
3-DAY PRECIPITATION TOTALS EXCEEDING THE 85TH CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE AND
2-INCHES. THEREFORE A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS CONTINUED ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ALASKA VALID FOR MAR 6, CORRESPONDING WITH THE HIGHEST DAILY TOTALS
IN THE ENSEMBLES AND A DECREASED SIGNAL IN THE PETS THEREAFTER.
FORECASTER: MELISSA OU
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