488
FXUS21 KWNC 281954
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EST FEBRUARY 28 2026
SYNOPSIS: MULTIPLE MODEL ENSEMBLES DEPICT LOW PRESSURE AT MID-LEVELS AND THE
SURFACE OVER THE CENTRAL CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) AT THE OUTSET OF WEEK-2, ALONG
WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND MID-LEVELS OVER BOTH COASTS. THIS
SETUP IS FAVORED TO BRING POTENTIALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI, TENNESSEE, AND OHIO VALLEYS, AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHEAST U.S. AND HIGH WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS.
FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSISSIPPI, TENNESSEE, AND OHIO
VALLEYS AS A RESULT OF THIS HEAVY PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA IS DEPICTED PUSHING PACIFIC MOISTURE INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST, FAVORING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF THE CASCADES,
AND THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES.
HAZARDS
HIGH RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF THE OHIO, TENNESSEE, MIDDLE
AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS AND SOUTHERN PLAINS, SUN-MON, MAR 8-9.
MODERATE RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS, LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION, AND THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI,
TENNESSEE, AND OHIO VALLEYS, SUN-TUE, MAR 8-10.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS, MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI, TENNESSEE, AND OHIO VALLEYS, LOWER GREAT
LAKES, MID-ATLANTIC, NORTHEAST, AND SOUTHEAST U.S., SUN-WED, MAR 8-11.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES,
SUN-TUE, MAR 8-10.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS, SUN-WED,
MAR 8-11.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, GREAT BASIN, AND
ROCKY MOUNTAINS, SUN-THU, MAR 8-12.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF
ALASKA, SUN-WED, MAR 8-11.
SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF WESTERN MAINLAND
ALASKA, SUN-MON, MAR 8-9.
FLOODING POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI, OHIO, AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR TUESDAY MARCH 03 - SATURDAY MARCH 07:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR SUNDAY MARCH 08 - SATURDAY MARCH 14: MULTIPLE MODEL ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS FOR
500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER NORTH AMERICA DEPICT AN AMPLIFIED SYNOPTIC
PATTERN AT THE OUTSET OF WEEK-2, WITH A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
PLAINS AND AMPLIFIED RIDGES SITUATED OVER BOTH COASTS. THIS SETUP STRONGLY
FAVORS CYCLOGENESIS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AS WELL AS ENHANCED BAROCLINICITY
ACROSS THE EAST, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS ACROSS TO THE NORTHEAST U.S. MODEL ENSEMBLE DAILY MSLP
FORECASTS INDICATE ONE SUCH ROUND OF CYCLOGENESIS DURING THE WEEK-1 PERIOD,
FOLLOWED BY A SECOND SURFACE LOW FORMING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AROUND THE
START OF WEEK-2. UNCALIBRATED PROBABILITIES FROM THE GEFS AND ECENS BOTH
INDICATE AT LEAST A 30% CHANCE OF DAILY PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATIONS TO EXCEED 1
INCH NEAR THE OHIO/MISSISSIPPI RIVER CONFLUENCE FOR DAYS 8 AND 9 (MAR 8-9), AS
WELL AS AT LEAST A 40% CHANCE OF DAILY PRECIPITATION TOTALS TO EXCEED A HALF
INCH FOR A LARGE SWATH FROM THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST STRETCHING NORTHEASTWARD AS
FAR AS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND THE NORTHEAST U.S. FOR MAR 8-10.
BOTH THE ECENS AND GEFS INDICATE FURTHER POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION ON
MAR 11 FOR MUCH OF THE AREA DESCRIBED ABOVE, HOWEVER BOTH SIGNAL STRENGTH AND
MODEL AGREEMENT ARE DIMINISHED RELATIVE TO THE START OF WEEK-2. GIVEN THE
STRONG SIGNAL AND GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT, A HIGH RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION
REMAINS POSTED FOR PORTIONS OF THE OHIO, TENNESSEE, MIDDLE AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS AND SOUTHERN PLAINS FOR MAR 8-9, A MODERATE RISK OF HEAVY
PRECIPITATION COVERING MORE OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI, TENNESSEE, AND OHIO
VALLEYS, EXTENDING FURTHER WEST INTO THE PLAINS, AND SOUTHWARD TO THE GULF
COAST NEAR THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER VALID MAR 8-10, AND A SLIGHT RISK OF
HEAVY PRECIPITATION EXTENDING OUT FROM THESE TWO HAZARDS TO INCLUDE MUCH OF
CENTRAL TEXAS, EASTWARD TO INCLUDE THE APPALACHIANS, AND NORTHWARD TO INCLUDE
PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST U.S., FOR THE PERIOD MAR 8-11. MODEL
SOLUTIONS DEPICT STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT AND SHARP PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WITH THESE CYCLOGENESIS EVENTS, RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH
WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS. ENSEMBLE MEAN WIND SPEEDS FROM THE ECENS
AND GEFS BOTH EXCEED 20MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
ACROSS THE EAST AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EASTWARD DURING THE FIRST HALF
OF WEEK-2, WARRANTING A BROAD AREA HIGHLIGHTED FOR A SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CONUS FOR MAR 8-11. FINALLY, COMBINED
PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATIONS FROM THE WEEK-1 AND WEEK-2 SYSTEMS OVER 6 INCHES
ARE LIKELY IN MANY LOCATIONS. THIS QUANTITY OF WATER IS NOT EASILY ACCOMMODATED
BY RIVER SYSTEMS, AND RIVER, STREAM, AND URBAN FLASH FLOODING ARE ALL POSSIBLE
AS A RESULT. A LARGE AREA IS HIGHLIGHTED FOR FLOODING POSSIBLE DURING THE
WEEK-2 PERIOD PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI, OHIO, AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE BEYOND THESE REGIONS, PARTICULARLY IN LOW-LYING AREAS.
MODEL ENSEMBLES MAINTAIN SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND MOIST
ONSHORE FLOW OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA, ALTHOUGH STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC GENERALLY LIMITS THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS MOIST
INFLOW NEAR THE U.S.-CANADIAN BORDER. DESPITE THIS, UNCALIBRATED PROBABILITIES
FROM THE GEFS AND ECENS SHOW A STRONG SIGNAL FOR 3-DAY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO
EXCEED 6 INCHES FOR THE NORTHERN CASCADES EARLY IN WEEK-2, AND THE BULLISH
ENECS INDICATES A 20% CHANCE OF ACCUMULATIONS TO EXCEED A FOOT. WITH STRONG
CYCLOGENESIS LIKELY OVER THE GREAT PLAINS MODELS FAVOR GOOD PENETRATION OF THE
MOISTURE FURTHER INTO THE WEST. BOTH THE ECENS AND GEFS INDICATE AT LEAST 20%
CHANCE OF 3-DAY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO EXCEED 6 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL ROCKIES, WITH HIGHER CHANCES FOR THE NORTHERN RANGES, AND ONCE AGAIN
WITH THE ECENS INDICATING HIGHER CHANCES THAN THE GEFS. THESE SIGNALS ARE
SOMEWHAT WEAK WITH RESPECT TO HAZARD THRESHOLDS IN THIS REGION, BUT PATTERN
RECOGNITION OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVERALL INDICATES ENHANCED SNOWFALL
POTENTIAL ACROSS THE WEST, PARTICULARLY EARLY IN WEEK-2. A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY
SNOW FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES VALID MAR 8-10. NO HAZARD FOR HEAVY
SNOW IS INDICATED FOR THE CASCADES, ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY ACCUMULATIONS REMAIN
POSSIBLE. HIGH WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
PATTERN. ENSEMBLE MEAN WIND SPEEDS OVER 20MPH ARE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND INTERIOR WEST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF WEEK-2, AND 20-40% CHANCES OF
WIND SPEEDS EXCEEDING 30MPH ARE NOTED NEAR THE WYOMING I-80 CORRIDOR. A SLIGHT
RISK OF HIGH WINDS IS POSTED FOR MUCH OF THE CONUS WEST OF AND INCLUDING THE
ROCKIES MOUNTAINS EXCEPT FOR MOST OF CALIFORNIA, VALID MAR 8-12.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA IS ALSO FAVORED TO ENHANCE WINDS
ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF ALASKA, AS WELL AS MAINTAIN COLD
EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE INTERIOR. THIS PATTERN IS FAVORED TO BRING EXTREMELY
COLD TEMPERATURES INTO MUCH OF THE STATE DURING WEEK-1. WEAKER EASTERLY FLOW
AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE DEPICTED BY MODEL ENSEMBLES BY WEEK-2, HOWEVER
THE POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDOUS COLD REMAINS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN ALASKA EARLY
IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. BASED ON BEST MODEL AGREEMENT, A SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAINS POSTED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN COAST OF
ALASKA, VALID MAR 8-9. THE PROBABILISTIC EXTREMES TOOLS (PETS) FOR MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES FROM THE GEFS AND ECENS BOTH INDICATE AT LEAST A 20% CHANCE OF
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW THE 15TH CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE ALONG THE
WESTERN COAST OF THE STATE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF WEEK-2. THE GEFS SHOWS A
WEAKER AND LONGER LASTING SIGNAL, WHILE THE ECENS INITIALLY DEPICTS
PROBABILITIES EXCEEDING 60% ON DAY-8 BEFORE DROPPING BELOW 40% BY DAY-10. THE
PETS FOR MAXIMUM WIND SPEEDS DEPICT A SIMILAR PICTURE, WITH THE GEFS
MAINTAINING A 20% CHANCE OF MAXIMUM WIND SPEEDS TO EXCEED THE 85TH PERCENTILE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, WHILE THE ECENS DEPICTS 40% CHANCES
OF EXCEEDING THE 85TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS REGION INITIALLY, WEAKENING TO A 20%
CHANCE BY THE END OF WEEK-2. A SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS IS MAINTAINED FOR MUCH
OF THE SOUTHERN ALASKAN COAST AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA FOR MAR 8-11.
FORECASTER: DANNY BARANDIARAN
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