130
FXUS21 KWNC 042101
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EST MARCH 04 2026
SYNOPSIS: MULTIPLE MODEL ENSEMBLES DEPICT LOW PRESSURE AT MID-LEVELS AND THE
SURFACE OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) AT THE OUTSET OF WEEK-2,
ALONG WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND MID-LEVELS NEAR THE WEST
COAST AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. THIS SETUP IS FAVORED TO BRING
POTENTIALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION TO APPROXIMATELY THE EASTERN QUARTER OF THE
CONUS VERY EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD, ALONG WITH HIGH WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LOWER 48 STATES. FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS
OF THE MISSISSIPPI, TENNESSEE, AND OHIO VALLEYS AS A RESULT OF THIS HEAVY
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. FURTHER FLOODING IS POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHEAST AND LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AS ANOMALOUSLY WARM TEMPERATURES BEGIN
TO MELT SNOWPACK ACCUMULATED OVER THE WINTER. STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENTS ACROSS
THE WESTERN CONUS ARE FAVORED TO ENHANCE WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE GREAT BASIN AND
ROCKY MOUNTAINS. INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
NORTHERN ROCKIES ELEVATES THE CHANCES OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST, AND HEAVY SNOWFALL OVER MOST OF THE CASCADES AND NORTHERN ROCKIES.
OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ALASKA, HAZARDS ARE POSTED FOR MUCH
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGH WINDS.
HAZARDS
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION, THE UPPER OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS, MOST OF THE APPALACHIANS, AND THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAIN, THU-FRI, MAR 12-13.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, THU-MON, MAR
12-16.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW OVER MOST OF THE CASCADES, THU-MON, MAR 12-16.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, THU-SAT, MAR 12-14.
SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
ALASKA, THU-MON, MAR 12-16.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND ROCKIES,
THU-SUN, MAR 12-15.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS FROM THE UPPER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY (AND
ADJACENT PARTS OF THE PLAINS) EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION, OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS, MOST OF THE APPALACHIANS, AND THE ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAIN
FROM MAINE TO SOUTH CAROLINA, THU-SUN, MAR 12-15.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN COAST OF ALASKA, THU-MON, MAR 12-16.
POSSIBLE FLOODING FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI, TENNESSEE,
AND OHIO VALLEYS TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND NORTHEAST.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR SATURDAY MARCH 07 - WEDNESDAY MARCH 11:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR THURSDAY MARCH 12 - WEDNESDAY MARCH 18: MULTIPLE MODEL ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS
FOR 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER NORTH AMERICA DEPICT AN AMPLIFIED SYNOPTIC
PATTERN AT THE OUTSET OF WEEK-2, WITH A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE
EAST-CENTRAL CONUS BOOKENDED BY AMPLIFIED RIDGES SITUATED NEAR THE WEST COAST
AND OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. THIS SETUP FAVORS INCREASED STORMINESS
OVER THE EASTERN QUARTER OF THE CONUS. THE PRIMARY STORM SYSTEM IS PREDICTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE EAST COAST STATES ON DAY 8, WITH ONE OR TWO SHORTWAVES
FOLLOWING IN THE FEW DAYS THEREAFTER. UNCALIBRATED PROBABILITIES FROM THE GEFS
AND ECENS, THE PROBABILISTIC EXTREMES TOOL (PET) FOR PRECIPITATION, AND DAILY
MODEL RUNS GENERALLY SUPPORT A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION, THE UPPER OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS,
MOST OF THE APPALACHIANS, AND THE ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAIN, THU-FRI, MAR 12-13.
THERE IS AT LEAST A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS EXCEEDING THE
85TH CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE, AND ABOUT ONE INCH.
AN IMPRESSIVE 3-5 INCHES (LOCALLY 7+ INCHES) OF PRECIPITATION IS PREDICTED
DURING WEEK-1 FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION,
AND AN ADDITIONAL 1 INCH IS FORECAST DURING WEEK-2. THE TOTAL PRECIPITATION
PREDICTED DURING THE NEXT TWO WEEKS MAY RESULT IN RIVER, STREAM, AND URBAN
FLASH FLOODING OVER MUCH OF THIS BROAD AREA. ADDITIONALLY, TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE DRAMATICALLY DURING WEEK-1 AND INTO WEEK-2. MANY AREAS OF
UPSTATE NEW YORK AND THE MOUNTAINS OF NEW HAMPSHIRE AND VERMONT HAVE OVER 5
INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT IN ACCUMULATED SNOW PACK, AND MUCH OF THIS IS
FAVORED TO MELT AWAY DURING THE COMING WEEKS. POSSIBLE FLOODING HAZARDS ARE
POSTED FOR THESE HIGHLIGHTED AREAS.
PREDICTED WIND SPEEDS FROM THE ECENS AND GEFS DYNAMICAL MODELS, AND PERCENTILES
BASED OFF THE WIND PET SUPPORT WIND SPEEDS EXCEEDING THE 85TH HISTORICAL
PERCENTILE AND 20 MPH FROM THE UPPER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY (AND
ADJACENT PARTS OF THE PLAINS) EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION, OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS, MOST OF THE APPALACHIANS, AND THE ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAIN
FROM MAINE TO SOUTH CAROLINA, THU-SUN, MAR 12-15. THIS WARRANTS A SLIGHT CHANCE
(20-40 PERCENT) OF HIGH WINDS IN THIS REGION. SYNOPTICALLY, THESE WINDS ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE PRIMARY STORM SYSTEM, AND ONE OR MORE
SHORTWAVE THEREAFTER.
MULTIPLE MODEL ENSEMBLES MAINTAIN SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA
AND MOIST ONSHORE FLOW OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA, ALTHOUGH STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC GENERALLY LIMITS THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS
MOIST INFLOW TO WASHINGTON STATE AND MUCH OF OREGON. UNCALIBRATED PROBABILITIES
FROM THE GEFS AND ECENS, AND THE PRECIPITATION PET, SUPPORT 1.5-2.0 INCHES OF
PRECIPITATION (LIQUID EQUIVALENT) OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, JUSTIFYING A
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION, THU-MON, MAR 12-16. ANALOGOUS FORECASTING
TOOLS USED TO ESTIMATE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS INDICATE A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF
AT LEAST 6 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES (MAR 12-14), AND AT LEAST A
30 PERCENT CHANCE OF AT LEAST 12 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE CASCADES (MAR 12-16).
ACCORDINGLY, SLIGHT RISKS OF HEAVY SNOW ARE POSTED FOR THESE AREAS. WIND
GUIDANCE FROM THE PET AND UNCALIBRATED ECENS/GEFS SUPPORTS A SLIGHT RISK OF
HIGH WINDS (EXCEEDING THE 85TH HISTORICAL PERCENTILE AND AT LEAST 20 MPH) OVER
MUCH OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND ROCKIES, THU-SUN, MAR 12-15.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA IS FAVORED TO ENHANCE WINDS ALONG
THE SOUTHERN COAST OF ALASKA, AS WELL AS MAINTAIN COLD EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE
INTERIOR. THOUGH WIND SPEEDS ARE PREDICTED TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW HAZARDOUS
THRESHOLDS, THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS INDICATED FROM MAR 12-16, IN
LARGE PART DUE TO THE EXPECTATION OF FREEZING SPRAY CONTINUING OVER THIS AREA.
THIS PATTERN IS FAVORED TO BRING ANOMALOUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES INTO MUCH OF THE
STATE DURING WEEK-1. A SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAINS
POSTED FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN MAINLAND OF ALASKA (INCLUDING THE
ALASKA PENINSULA), VALID MAR 12-16. THE PROBABILISTIC EXTREMES TOOLS (PETS) FOR
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FROM THE GEFS AND ECENS BOTH INDICATE AT LEAST A 20%
CHANCE OF MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW THE 15TH CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE
ALONG WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE WEEK-2
PERIOD, WITH THE ECENS CONCENTRATING THE HAZARDOUS COLD OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
PORTION OF THE STATE.
FORECASTER: ANTHONY ARTUSA
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