957
FXUS21 KWNC 052008
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EST MARCH 05 2026
SYNOPSIS: MULTIPLE MODEL ENSEMBLES DEPICT LOW PRESSURE AT MID-LEVELS AND THE
SURFACE OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) AT THE OUTSET OF WEEK-2,
ALONG WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND MID-LEVELS NEAR THE WEST
COAST AND THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN. THIS SETUP IS FAVORED TO
BRING POTENTIALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION FROM THE VICINITY OF THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS EASTWARD TO THE NORTHEAST COAST, HEAVY SNOW TO THE
INTERIOR NORTHEAST, AND HIGH WINDS TO MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LOWER 48
STATES. FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSISSIPPI, TENNESSEE,
AND OHIO VALLEYS AS A RESULT OF THIS HEAVY PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. FURTHER
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST AND LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION
AS ANOMALOUSLY WARM TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MELT SNOWPACK ACCUMULATED OVER THE
WINTER. STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES, ARE FAVORED TO ENHANCE WINDS OVER MUCH OF
THOSE AREAS. SEVERAL DAYS OF ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND NORTHERN ROCKIES ELEVATES THE CHANCES OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST, AND HEAVY SNOWFALL OVER MOST OF THE CASCADES AND NORTHERN
ROCKIES. OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ALASKA, HAZARDS ARE POSTED FOR
MUCH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGH WINDS.
HAZARDS
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION, THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY, NORTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, AND THE ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAIN
FROM MAINE TO MARYLAND, FRI-SUN, MAR 13-15.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, FRI-SUN, MAR
13-15.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW OVER MOST OF THE CASCADES, FRI-SUN, MAR 13-15.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, FRI-SUN, MAR 13-15.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTERIOR
NORTHEAST, FRI-SUN, MAR 13-15.
SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
ALASKA, FRI-TUE, MAR 13-17.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS OVER MOST OF THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION, AND
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES, FRI-SUN, MAR 13-15.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS FROM THE UPPER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY (AND
ADJACENT PARTS OF THE PLAINS) EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION, OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS, MOST OF THE APPALACHIANS, AND THE ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAIN
FROM MAINE TO SOUTH CAROLINA, FRI-MON, MAR 13-16.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN COAST OF ALASKA, FRI-TUE, MAR 13-17.
POSSIBLE FLOODING FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI, TENNESSEE,
AND OHIO VALLEYS TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND NORTHEAST.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR SUNDAY MARCH 08 - THURSDAY MARCH 12:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR FRIDAY MARCH 13 - THURSDAY MARCH 19: MULTIPLE MODEL ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS FOR
500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER NORTH AMERICA DEPICT AN AMPLIFIED SYNOPTIC
PATTERN AT THE OUTSET OF WEEK-2, WITH A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE
EAST-CENTRAL CONUS BOOKENDED BY AMPLIFIED RIDGES SITUATED NEAR THE WEST COAST
AND OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN. THIS SETUP IS CONSISTENT WITH
LINGERING STORMINESS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. THOUGH THE PRIMARY STORM
SYSTEM IS PREDICTED TO MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST AND OUT OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC ON DAYS 8 AND 9, SEVERAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES ARE FORECAST TO FOLLOW
IN ITS WAKE DURING THE FOLLOWING FEW DAYS. UNCALIBRATED PROBABILITIES FROM THE
GEFS AND ECENS (AI) ENSEMBLE MEANS, THE PROBABILISTIC EXTREMES TOOL (PET) FOR
PRECIPITATION, AND DAILY MODEL RUNS GENERALLY SUPPORT A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY
PRECIPITATION FOR THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION, THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY, NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, AND THE ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAIN FROM MAINE TO
MARYLAND, FRI-SUN, MAR 13-15. THERE IS AT LEAST A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS EXCEEDING THE 85TH CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE, AND ABOUT
ONE INCH. IN ADDITION, A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW IS ALSO POSTED OVER THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTERIOR NORTHEAST, FRI-SUN, MAR 13-15. THE
UNCALIBRATED ECENS SNOW AMOUNTS FAVOR AT LEAST 6 INCHES OF SNOW IN A 3-DAY
PERIOD OVER THIS REGION, THOUGH THE GEFS SIGNAL IS SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER.
AN IMPRESSIVE 1.5-5.0 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION IS PREDICTED DURING WEEK-1 FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION, WITH 5-7 INCHES
POSSIBLE OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION. AN ADDITIONAL 1-INCH OF PRECIPITATION IS
FORECAST OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST CONUS DURING WEEK-2. THE TOTAL
PRECIPITATION PREDICTED DURING THE NEXT TWO WEEKS MAY RESULT IN RIVER, STREAM,
AND URBAN FLASH FLOODING OVER MUCH OF THIS BROAD AREA. ADDITIONALLY,
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE DRAMATICALLY DURING WEEK-1. MANY AREAS OF
UPSTATE NEW YORK AND THE MOUNTAINS OF NEW HAMPSHIRE AND VERMONT HAVE 2-6 INCHES
OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT IN ACCUMULATED SNOWPACK, AND MUCH OF THIS IS FAVORED TO
MELT AWAY DURING THIS BRIEF BUT DRAMATIC WARMUP. POSSIBLE FLOODING HAZARDS ARE
POSTED FOR THESE HIGHLIGHTED AREAS.
PREDICTED WIND SPEEDS FROM THE ECENS AND GEFS (AI) DYNAMICAL MODELS, AND
PERCENTILES BASED OFF THE WIND PET SUPPORT WIND SPEEDS EXCEEDING THE 85TH
HISTORICAL PERCENTILE AND 20 MPH FROM THE UPPER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
(AND ADJACENT PARTS OF THE PLAINS) EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION, OHIO
AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS, MOST OF THE APPALACHIANS, AND THE ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAIN
FROM MAINE TO SOUTH CAROLINA, FRI-MON, MAR 13-16. THIS WARRANTS A SLIGHT CHANCE
(20-40 PERCENT) OF HIGH WINDS IN THIS REGION. SYNOPTICALLY, THESE WINDS ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE PRIMARY STORM SYSTEM, AND ONE OR MORE
SHORTWAVES THEREAFTER.
AFTER A BRIEF BUT DRAMATIC WARMUP PREDICTED DURING WEEK-1 IN THE EAST, A BRIEF
BUT DRAMATIC COOLDOWN IS PREDICTED DURING WEEK-2. THE GEFS/ECENS PETS PREDICT A
20 PERCENT CHANCE OF THE +10 DEG F ISOTHERM REACHING AS FAR SOUTH AS
CONNECTICUT AND THE ADJACENT CATSKILL MOUNTAINS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
WEEK-2. AS AN EXAMPLE, NEW YORK CITY CLIMATOLOGICALLY EXPERIENCES MINIMUM
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AROUND 35 OR 36 DEG F IN MID-MARCH, WHICH IMPLIES
TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES OF ABOUT 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER, GIVEN THIS
WINTER SEASON IS WINDING DOWN, THE WINTER HAS BEEN UNUSUALLY COLD IN MUCH OF
THE EAST, AND THAT AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS ARE MINIMAL AT THIS TIME OF YEAR, NO
TEMPERATURE HAZARDS ARE POSTED FOR THE NORTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE CONUS.
HOWEVER, SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS MAY BE IN STORE FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THE
PREDICTED SHORT-TERM WARMUP COULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD GREEN-UP OF VEGETATION,
ONLY TO BE FOLLOWED SHORTLY THEREAFTER BY A POTENTIAL FREEZE DURING THE MIDDLE
OF MARCH. THIS POSSIBILITY SHOULD BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
MULTIPLE MODEL ENSEMBLES MAINTAIN SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA
AND MOIST ONSHORE FLOW OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA, ALTHOUGH STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC GENERALLY LIMITS THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS
MOIST INFLOW TO WASHINGTON STATE AND MUCH OF OREGON. UNCALIBRATED PROBABILITIES
FROM THE GEFS AND ECENS, AND THE PRECIPITATION PET, SUPPORT 1.5-2.0 INCHES OF
PRECIPITATION (LIQUID EQUIVALENT) OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, JUSTIFYING A
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION, FRI-SUN, MAR 13-15. ANALOGOUS FORECASTING
TOOLS USED TO ESTIMATE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS INDICATE A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF
AT LEAST 6 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES (MAR 13-15), AND AT LEAST A
20 PERCENT CHANCE OF AT LEAST 12 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE CASCADES (MAR 13-15).
ACCORDINGLY, SLIGHT RISKS OF HEAVY SNOW ARE POSTED FOR THESE AREAS. THE RAIN
AND WARMING TEMPERATURES MAY INCREASE SNOWMELT LEADING TO ELEVATED STREAMFLOWS
IN WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN IDAHO. WIND GUIDANCE FROM THE PET AND UNCALIBRATED
ECENS/GEFS SUPPORTS A SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS (EXCEEDING THE 85TH HISTORICAL
PERCENTILE AND AT LEAST 20 MPH) OVER MOST OF THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION,
AND THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES, FRI-SUN, MAR 13-15. THE REASON FOR NOT
EXTENDING THESE PRECIPITATION, SNOW, AND WIND HAZARDS FURTHER INTO WEEK-2 IS
LARGELY DUE TO THE ECENS MODEL WHICH AMPLIFIES THE WESTERN RIDGE AND NUDGES THE
ONSHORE FLOW REGION FARTHER NORTH INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA, UNLIKE THE GEFS AND
CMCE SOLUTIONS.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA IS FAVORED TO ENHANCE GAP WINDS
ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF ALASKA, AS WELL AS MAINTAIN COLD EASTERLY FLOW OVER
THE INTERIOR. THOUGH WIND SPEEDS MAY REMAIN MARGINALLY HAZARDOUS, THERE IS ALSO
THE CONTINUING CONCERN OF FREEZING SPRAY IN THIS REGION. THEREFORE, A SLIGHT
RISK OF HIGH WINDS INDICATED FROM MAR 13-17. THIS PATTERN IS FAVORED TO BRING
ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIR TO MUCH OF THE STATE DURING WEEK-1 AND WEEK-2. A SLIGHT
RISK OF MUCH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAINS POSTED FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
AND WESTERN MAINLAND OF ALASKA (INCLUDING THE ALASKA PENINSULA), VALID MAR
13-17. THE PROBABILISTIC EXTREMES TOOLS (PETS) FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FROM
THE GEFS AND ECENS BOTH INDICATE AT LEAST A 20% CHANCE OF MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FALLING BELOW THE 15TH CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE ALONG WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE WEEK-2 PERIOD, WITH THE ECENS
CONCENTRATING THE HAZARDOUS COLD OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE STATE.
OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC, A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW ARE
EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS DURING WEEK-2. THE
GEFS/ECENS PETS PREDICT AT LEAST A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TOTALS
EXCEEDING 2 INCHES STATEWIDE.
FORECASTER: ANTHONY ARTUSA
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