028
FXUS21 KWNC 061915
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EST MARCH 06 2026
SYNOPSIS: DURING WEEK-2, HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST, HEAVY SNOW REMAINS POSSIBLE FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST, AND HIGH WINDS MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS). FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE OHIO
VALLEY AS A RESULT OF ANTECEDENT PRECIPITATION. STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENTS BRING
A POSSIBILITY FOR HIGH WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES ELEVATES THE CHANCES OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND
WIND OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, AND HEAVY SNOWFALL OVER MOST OF THE CASCADES
AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ALASKA, HAZARDS ARE
POSTED FOR MUCH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGH WINDS.
HAZARDS
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, SAT-WED, MAR
14-18.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
NORTHEAST, SUN-TUE, MAR 15-17.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW OVER MOST OF THE CASCADES, SAT-WED, MAR 14-18.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, SAT-MON, MAR 14-16.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST, SAT-MON, MAR
14-16.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST
OREGON, SAT-WED, MAR 14-18.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS OVER MOST OF THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION, AND
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES, SAT-MON, MAR 14-16.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC,
SUN-TUE, MAR 15-17.
SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND
SOUTHEASTERN TO SOUTHCENTRAL MAINLAND ALASKA, SAT-SUN, MAR 14-15.
SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
ALASKA, SAT-FRI, MAR 14-20.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN COAST OF ALASKA, SAT-TUE, MAR 14-17.
POSSIBLE FLOODING FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR MONDAY MARCH 09 - FRIDAY MARCH 13:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR SATURDAY MARCH 14 - FRIDAY MARCH 20: NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE
FORECAST ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH AMERICA WITH POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS AT THE ONSET OF WEEK-2. A MID-LEVEL WAVE IS
FORECAST TO BREAK INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS FROM NORTHERN NORTH
AMERICA DURING WEEK-2 DEVELOPING A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REGION. THERE
REMAIN DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODEL GUIDANCE ON THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF
THIS FEATURE BUT WILL LIKELY DRIVE MUCH OF THE WEATHER OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CONUS DURING WEEK-2. IN THE WEST, POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES
OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION WILL DRIVE PRECIPITATION INTO WESTERN
CANADA AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
ONSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND BRITISH COLUMBIA DURING
THE EARLY AND MIDDLE OF THE WEEK-2 PERIOD. PROBABILISTIC EXTREMES TOOLS (PETS)
FROM THE GEFS AND ECENS BOTH HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION TO
EXCEED THE 85TH PERCENTILE INTO THE MIDDLE OF WEEK-2. THE INTEGRATED WATER
VAPOR TRANSPORT (IVT) TOOLS ALSO HIGHLIGHT ELEVATED CHANCES FOR AN ATMOSPHERIC
RIVER TYPE PRECIPITATION EVENT INTO WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. THEREFORE, A SLIGHT
RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS POSTED FOR MARCH 14-18 FOR PARTS OF WESTERN
OREGON AND WASHINGTON. A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW IS FORECAST FOR PORTIONS OF
THE CASCADES FOR THE SAME PERIOD. FURTHER INLAND, A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW
IS FORECAST FOR MARCH 14-16, BEFORE THE SNOW SHIFTS NORTH INTO CANADA. ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST, A SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS IS FORECAST FOR MAR 14-18. THE
ENHANCED PACIFIC FLOW INTO THE ROCKIES MAY BRING ENHANCED CHANCES FOR EPISODES
OF HIGH WINDS ACROSS DOWNSLOPE REGIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO
THE HIGH PLAINS. THEREFORE, A SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS IS POSTED FOR THIS
REGION FOR MAR 14-16.
IN THE EAST, A COMPLICATED AND UNCERTAIN PATTERN IS FAVORED BY WEEK-2. A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS, AMPLIFYING POSITIVE
500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. TOOLS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A
CHANCE FOR A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM TO BRING CHANCES FOR HEAVY SNOW INTO
PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST AND THEN PHASE INTO COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT
OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS REMAINS A HIGH UNCERTAINTY EVENT BUT THERE IS ENOUGH
SIGNAL IN THE GUIDANCE TO INDICATE A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION ALONG
THE COASTAL MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST FOR MAR 15-17. A CORRESPONDING SLIGHT
RISK OF HIGH WINDS IS FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS,
MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST. FINALLY, A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW IS FORECAST
FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST, MAR 14-16.
A FLOODING POSSIBLE HAZARD REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY FOR THE PERIOD AS A RESULT OF ANTECEDENT PRECIPITATION. MORE THAN 5
INCHES OF PRECIPITATION HAS FALLEN OVER PARTS OF OHIO AND INDIANA IN THE PAST 3
DAYS AND THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER’S DAY 1-7 QPF IS FORECASTING ANOTHER 1-2
INCHES OVER THIS REGION DURING WEEK-1. HOWEVER, THE FLOODING POSSIBLE SHAPE HAS
BEEN REDUCED FROM PRIOR FORECASTS OVER THE UPPER OHIO AND LOWER MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
FOLLOWING THE WARM UP DURING THE FIRST HALF OF MARCH OVER THE NORTHEAST, A SHOT
OF COLD AIR IS FORECAST TO BUILD BACK INTO THE EAST FOR THE 3RD WEEK OF MARCH.
THE EUROPEAN BASED TOOLS WOULD BRING THIS COLDER THAN NORMAL AIR IN BY DAY 10
WHILE THE GEFS IS SLOWER WAITING TO BRING ELEVATED CHANCES OF TEMPERATURES
FALLING BELOW THE 15TH PERCENTILE UNTIL THE END OF WEEK-2. AT THIS TIME,
TEMPERATURES ARE UNLIKELY TO BE HAZARDOUS BUT A FREEZE IS POSSIBLE INTO PARTS
OF THE SOUTHEAST WHERE PLANTS MAY BEGIN GREENING UP BY THIS PERIOD. IN THE
NORTHEAST, THIS COOLER PATTERN WILL SLOW SNOW MELT AND ICE JAMS BY THE
BEGINNING OF WEEK-2 REDUCING FLOODING RISK IN THIS REGION AND THE FLOODING
POSSIBLE HAZARD HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER INTERIOR
ALASKA AND THE YUKON IS FAVORED TO ENHANCE GAP WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST
OF ALASKA, AS WELL AS MAINTAIN COLD FLOW OVER THE STATE. FORECAST WIND SPEEDS
ARE MARGINALLY HAZARDOUS, BUT THERE IS ALSO THE CONTINUING CONCERN OF FREEZING
SPRAY IN THIS REGION. THEREFORE, A SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS INDICATED FROM MAR
14-17. THIS PATTERN IS FAVORED TO BRING ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIR TO MUCH OF THE
STATE DURING WEEK-1 AND WEEK-2. A SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
REMAINS POSTED FOR MUCH OF SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA (INCLUDING THE ALASKA
PENINSULA), VALID MAR 14-20. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED COLDER ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ALASKA IN RECENT RUNS AND A SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES HAS
BEEN ADDED FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND SOUTHEASTERN MAINLAND FOR MAR 14-15.
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RISK IS A CHANCE FOR ENHANCED SNOWFALL OVER SOUTHEAST WITH
ONSHORE FLOW ALOFT AND LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE PROBABILISTIC
EXTREMES TOOLS (PETS) FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FROM THE GEFS AND ECENS BOTH
INDICATE AT LEAST A 20% CHANCE OF MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW THE 5TH
CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE IN SOUTHEAST ALASKA EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THE PETS
THEN REINTENSIFY THE MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE CHANCES OVER SOUTHWESTERN
MAINLAND THROUGH MUCH OF WEEK-2. DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE WOULD SUPPORT A BROADER
SLIGHT RISK OVER MUCH OF INTERIOR ALASKA BUT PETS ARE NOT QUITE AS SUPPORTIVE
AT THIS TIME, BUT WILL BE MONITORED.
OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC, A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW ARE
EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS DURING WEEK-2. THE
GEFS AND ECENS PETS PREDICT AT LEAST A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
TOTALS EXCEEDING THE 85TH CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE STATEWIDE DURING THE FIRST
3 DAYS OF WEEK-2.
FORECASTER: RYAN BOLT
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