158
FXUS21 KWNC 071914
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EST MARCH 07 2026
SYNOPSIS: DURING WEEK-2, HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST, HEAVY SNOW REMAINS POSSIBLE FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES, AND HIGH WINDS MAY OCCUR
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS). FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE FOR
PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY AS A RESULT OF ANTECEDENT PRECIPITATION. STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENTS BRING A POSSIBILITY FOR HIGH WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. ENHANCED ONSHORE
FLOW ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES ELEVATES THE CHANCES OF
HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND WIND OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, AND HEAVY SNOWFALL
OVER MOST OF THE CASCADES AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN ALASKA, HAZARDS ARE POSTED FOR MUCH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGH
WINDS.
HAZARDS
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, SUN-WED, MAR
15-18.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
NORTHEAST, SUN-TUE, MAR 15-17.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW OVER MOST OF THE CASCADES, SUN-WED, MAR 15-18.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, SUN-MON, MAR 15-16.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES AND INTERIOR
NORTHEAST, SAT-MON, MAR 15-16.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST
OREGON, SUN-WED, MAR 15-18.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS OVER MOST OF THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION, AND
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES, SUN-MON, MAR 15-16.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC,
SUN-TUE, MAR 15-17.
SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND
SOUTHEASTERN TO SOUTHCENTRAL MAINLAND ALASKA, SUN, MAR 15.
SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
ALASKA, SUN-SAT, MAR 15-21.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN COAST OF ALASKA AND SOUTHEAST
ALASKA, SUN-SAT, MAR 15-21.
POSSIBLE FLOODING FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR TUESDAY MARCH 10 - SATURDAY MARCH 14:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR SUNDAY MARCH 15 - SATURDAY MARCH 21: NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE
FORECAST ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH AMERICA WITH POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS AT THE END OF WEEK-1. A MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO DIG INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS FROM THIS POOL OF NEGATIVE
ANOMALIES OVER NORTHERN NORTH AMERICA EARLY IN WEEK-2. THIS TROUGH WILL LIKELY
LINGER OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE END OF WEEK-2. OVER THE WEST,
POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES WILL BUILD ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS
INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A STRONG RIDGE FORECAST OVER THE WEST AND TROUGHING IN GULF OF ALASKA WILL
PROMOTE ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE NORTHERN PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND BRITISH COLUMBIA
DURING WEEK-2, WITH THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE EARLY IN THE PERIOD. PROBABILISTIC
EXTREMES TOOLS (PETS) FROM THE GEFS AND ECENS BOTH HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION TO EXCEED THE 85TH PERCENTILE INTO THE MIDDLE OF WEEK-2. THE
INTEGRATED WATER VAPOR TRANSPORT (IVT) TOOLS ALSO HIGHLIGHT ELEVATED CHANCES
FOR AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER TYPE PRECIPITATION EVENT INTO WESTERN NORTH AMERICA.
THEREFORE, A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS POSTED FOR MARCH 15-18 FOR
PARTS OF WESTERN OREGON AND WASHINGTON. A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW IS FORECAST
FOR PORTIONS OF THE CASCADES FOR THE SAME PERIOD. FURTHER INLAND, A SLIGHT RISK
OF HEAVY SNOW IS FORECAST FOR MARCH 15-16, BEFORE THE SNOW SHIFTS NORTH INTO
CANADA. ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST, A SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS IS FORECAST FOR
MAR 15-18. THE ENHANCED PACIFIC FLOW INTO THE ROCKIES MAY BRING ENHANCED
CHANCES FOR EPISODES OF HIGH WINDS ACROSS DOWNSLOPE REGIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. THEREFORE, A SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS IS
POSTED FOR THIS REGION FOR MAR 15-16.
EAST OF THE ROCKIES, A MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG INTO THE CENTRAL
CONUS, INITIALLY AMPLIFYING POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS EARLY IN THE PERIOD. DURING THE PERIOD, THE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS TOWARDS
THE EASTERN SEABOARD. AS THE TROUGH PROGRESSES EAST, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM IS FORECAST. THIS SYSTEM BRINGS ELEVATED CHANCES FOR
HEAVY SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES AND INTERIOR NORTHEAST, MAR
15-16. ALONG THE IMMEDIATE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC COAST THERE IS AN
ELEVATED CHANCE OF 3 DAY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS EXCEEDING THE 85TH PERCENTILE
AND 1 INCH. AN ASSOCIATED SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS POSTED FOR MAR
15-17. FINALLY, AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, COLD AIR ADVECTION IS FAVORED AND
HIGH WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. THEREFORE, A SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS IS POSTED FOR
MAR 15-17.
FOLLOWING THE WARM UP DURING THE FIRST HALF OF MARCH OVER THE NORTHEAST, A SHOT
OF COLD AIR IS FORECAST TO BUILD BACK INTO THE EAST FOR THE 3RD WEEK OF MARCH.
THE EUROPEAN BASED TOOLS WOULD BRING THIS COLDER THAN NORMAL AIR IN BY DAY 9
WHILE THE GEFS IS SLOWER WAITING TO BRING ELEVATED CHANCES OF TEMPERATURES
FALLING BELOW THE 15TH PERCENTILE UNTIL THE END OF WEEK-2. AT THIS TIME,
TEMPERATURES ARE UNLIKELY TO BE HAZARDOUS BUT A FREEZE IS POSSIBLE INTO PARTS
OF THE SOUTHEAST WHERE PLANTS MAY BEGIN GREENING UP BY THIS PERIOD.
A FLOODING POSSIBLE HAZARD REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY FOR THE PERIOD AS A RESULT OF ANTECEDENT PRECIPITATION. MORE THAN 5
INCHES OF PRECIPITATION HAS FALLEN OVER PARTS OF OHIO AND INDIANA IN THE PAST 5
DAYS AND THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER'S DAY 1-7 FORECAST PREDICTS ANOTHER 2-3
INCHES OVER THIS REGION DURING WEEK-1. HOWEVER, THE FLOODING POSSIBLE SHAPE HAS
BEEN REDUCED FROM PRIOR FORECASTS OVER THE UPPER OHIO AND LOWER AND MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER INTERIOR
ALASKA AND THE YUKON IS FAVORED TO ENHANCE GAP WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST
OF ALASKA, AS WELL AS MAINTAIN COLD FLOW OVER THE STATE. FORECAST WIND SPEEDS
ARE MARGINALLY HAZARDOUS, BUT THERE IS ALSO THE CONTINUING CONCERN OF FREEZING
SPRAY IN THIS REGION. THEREFORE, A SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS INDICATED FROM MAR
15-21. THIS PATTERN IS FAVORED TO BRING ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIR TO MUCH OF THE
STATE DURING WEEK-1 AND WEEK-2. A SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
REMAINS POSTED FOR MUCH OF SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA (INCLUDING THE ALASKA
PENINSULA), VALID MAR 15-21. A SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUES FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND SOUTHEASTERN MAINLAND FOR MAR 15 BEFORE
TEMPERATURES WARM ACROSS THIS REGION. ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RISK IS A CHANCE FOR
ENHANCED SNOWFALL OVER SOUTHEAST WITH ONSHORE FLOW ALOFT AND LOW PRESSURE IN
THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE PROBABILISTIC EXTREMES TOOLS (PETS) FOR MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES REINTENSIFY CHANCES FOR MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE CHANCES OVER
SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND THROUGH MUCH OF WEEK-2. DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE WOULD
SUPPORT A BROADER SLIGHT RISK OVER MUCH OF INTERIOR ALASKA BUT PETS ARE NOT
QUITE AS SUPPORTIVE AT THIS TIME, BUT WILL BE MONITORED.
OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC, A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW ARE
EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS DURING WEEK-1.
HOWEVER, THESE CHANCES HAVE FALLEN RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY EARLY IN THE WEEK-2
PERIOD. NEVERTHELESS, THE GEFS AND ECENS PETS STILL PREDICT AT LEAST A 20
PERCENT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TOTALS EXCEEDING THE 85TH CLIMATOLOGICAL
PERCENTILE STATEWIDE DURING THE FIRST 3 DAYS OF WEEK-2.
FORECASTER: RYAN BOLT
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