327
FXUS21 KWNC 081801
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT MARCH 08 2026
SYNOPSIS: DURING WEEK-2, HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST, WHILE HEAVY SNOW REMAINS POSSIBLE FOR HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST, AND HIGH WINDS MAY OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHEASTERN CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS). FLOODING REMAINS POSSIBLE FOR
PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY AS A RESULT OF ANTECEDENT PRECIPITATION.
DOWNSLOPING WINDS BRING A POSSIBILITY FOR HIGH WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS. ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST ELEVATES THE CHANCES OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND WIND OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST, AND HEAVY SNOWFALL OVER MOST OF THE CASCADES. OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ALASKA, MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGH WINDS
REMAIN POSSIBLE.
HAZARDS
MODERATE RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN WASHINGTON AND
NORTHWEST OREGON, MON-WED, MAR 16-18.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, MON-THU, MAR
16-19.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
NORTHEAST, MON, MAR 16.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW OVER MOST OF THE CASCADES, MON-THU, MAR 16-19.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST, MON, MAR 16.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST
OREGON, MON-THU, MAR 16-19.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS OVER MOST OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
INTO THE PLAINS, MON-WED, MAR 16-18.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC,
MON-TUE, MAR 16-17.
SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND SOUTHEASTERN TO SOUTHCENTRAL MAINLAND ALASKA, MON-TUE, MAR
16-17.
SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
ALASKA, MON-SUN, MAR 16-22.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN COAST OF ALASKA AND SOUTHEAST
ALASKA, MON-SUN, MAR 16-22.
POSSIBLE FLOODING FOR PORTIONS OF THE WHITE RIVER VALLEY IN INDIANA.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR WEDNESDAY MARCH 11 - SUNDAY MARCH 15:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR MONDAY MARCH 16 - SUNDAY MARCH 22: NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE
FORECAST ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH AMERICA WITH POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS AT THE END OF WEEK-1. A MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO DIG INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS FROM THIS POOL OF NEGATIVE
ANOMALIES OVER NORTHERN NORTH AMERICA EARLY IN WEEK-2. THIS TROUGH WILL LIKELY
LINGER OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE END OF WEEK-2. OVER THE WEST,
POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES WILL BUILD ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS
INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A STRONG RIDGE FORECAST OVER THE WEST AND TROUGHING IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL
PROMOTE ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE NORTHERN PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND BRITISH COLUMBIA
DURING WEEK-2, WITH THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE EARLY IN THE PERIOD. PROBABILISTIC
EXTREMES TOOLS (PETS) FROM THE GEFS AND ECENS BOTH HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION TO EXCEED THE 85TH PERCENTILE INTO THE MIDDLE OF WEEK-2. THE
INTEGRATED WATER VAPOR TRANSPORT (IVT) TOOLS ALSO HIGHLIGHT ELEVATED CHANCES
FOR AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER TYPE PRECIPITATION EVENT INTO WESTERN NORTH AMERICA.
UNCALIBRATED GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR 40-60% CHANCES OF
MORE THAN 2 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION INTO PARTS OF WESTERN WASHINGTON AND
NORTHWESTERN OREGON. THEREFORE, A MODERATE RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS
POSTED FOR MAR 16-18. MEANWHILE, A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION REMAINS
POSTED FOR MARCH 16-19 FOR PARTS OF WESTERN OREGON AND WASHINGTON. A SLIGHT
RISK OF HEAVY SNOW IS FORECAST FOR PORTIONS OF THE CASCADES FOR THE SAME
PERIOD. HOWEVER, THE HEAVIEST SNOW MAY BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS
WITH GUIDANCE FAVORING THIS SYSTEM TO BE WARMER THAN NORMAL. THEREFORE, NO
CORRESPONDING MODERATE RISK OF HEAVY SNOW IS POSTED. ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST,
A SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS IS FORECAST FOR MAR 16-19. THE ENHANCED PACIFIC
FLOW INTO THE ROCKIES MAY BRING CHANCES FOR EPISODES OF HIGH WINDS ACROSS
DOWNSLOPE REGIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.
THEREFORE, A SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS IS POSTED FOR THIS REGION FOR MAR 16-18.
EAST OF THE ROCKIES, A MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG INTO THE CENTRAL
CONUS, INITIALLY AMPLIFYING POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS EARLY IN THE PERIOD. DURING THE PERIOD, THE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS TOWARDS
THE EASTERN SEABOARD. AS THE TROUGH PROGRESSES EAST, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM IS FORECAST. THIS SYSTEM BRINGS ELEVATED CHANCES FOR
HEAVY SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST, MAR 16. ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC COAST THERE IS AN ELEVATED CHANCE OF HEAVY
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS POSTED FOR
MAR 16. FINALLY, AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, COLD AIR ADVECTION IS FAVORED AND
HIGH WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS POSTED FOR MAR 16-17.
FOLLOWING THE WARM UP DURING THE FIRST HALF OF MARCH OVER THE NORTHEAST, A SHOT
OF COLD AIR IS FORECAST TO BUILD BACK INTO THE EAST FOR THE 3RD WEEK OF MARCH.
THE EUROPEAN BASED TOOLS WOULD BRING THIS COLDER THAN NORMAL AIR IN BY DAY 9
WHILE THE GEFS IS SLOWER WAITING TO BRING ELEVATED CHANCES OF TEMPERATURES
FALLING BELOW THE 15TH PERCENTILE UNTIL THE END OF WEEK-2. AT THIS TIME,
TEMPERATURES ARE UNLIKELY TO BE HAZARDOUS BUT A FREEZE IS POSSIBLE INTO PARTS
OF THE SOUTHEAST WHERE PLANTS MAY BEGIN GREENING UP BY THIS PERIOD.
A FLOODING POSSIBLE HAZARD REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WHITE RIVER
VALLEY IN INDIANA FOR THE PERIOD AS A RESULT OF ANTECEDENT PRECIPITATION AND
ONGOING FLOODING. MORE THAN 5 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION HAS FALLEN OVER PARTS OF
INDIANA IN THE PAST 5 DAYS AND THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER’S DAY 1-7 FORECAST
PREDICTS ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES OVER THIS REGION DURING WEEK-1.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER INTERIOR
ALASKA AND THE YUKON IS FAVORED TO ENHANCE GAP WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST
OF ALASKA, AS WELL AS MAINTAIN COLD FLOW OVER THE STATE. FORECAST WIND SPEEDS
ARE MARGINALLY HAZARDOUS, BUT THERE IS ALSO THE CONTINUING CONCERN OF FREEZING
SPRAY IN THIS REGION. THEREFORE, A SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS INDICATED FROM MAR
16-22. THIS PATTERN IS FAVORED TO BRING ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIR TO MUCH OF THE
STATE DURING WEEK-1 AND WEEK-2. A SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
REMAINS POSTED FOR MUCH OF SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA (INCLUDING THE ALASKA
PENINSULA), VALID MAR 16-22. A SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUES FOR NORTHERN SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND SOUTHEASTERN MAINLAND FOR MAR 16-17
BEFORE TEMPERATURES WARM ACROSS THIS REGION. GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY
TODAY TO MAINTAIN STRONGER CHANCES FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW THE 15TH
PERCENTILE SLIGHTLY LONGER. ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RISK IS A CHANCE FOR ENHANCED
SNOWFALL OVER SOUTHEAST WITH ONSHORE FLOW ALOFT AND LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF
ALASKA. THE PROBABILISTIC EXTREMES TOOLS (PETS) FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
REINTENSIFY CHANCES FOR MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE CHANCES OVER SOUTHWESTERN
MAINLAND THROUGH MUCH OF WEEK-2. DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE WOULD SUPPORT A BROADER
SLIGHT RISK OVER MUCH OF INTERIOR ALASKA BUT PETS ARE NOT QUITE AS SUPPORTIVE
AT THIS TIME, BUT WILL BE MONITORED.
OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC, A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW ARE
EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS DURING WEEK-1.
HOWEVER, THESE CHANCES HAVE FALLEN RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY EARLY IN THE WEEK-2
PERIOD. NEVERTHELESS, THE GEFS AND ECENS PETS STILL PREDICT AT LEAST A 20
PERCENT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TOTALS EXCEEDING THE 85TH CLIMATOLOGICAL
PERCENTILE STATEWIDE DURING THE FIRST 3 DAYS OF WEEK-2.
FORECASTER: RYAN BOLT
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