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FXUS21 KWNC 151841
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT MARCH 15 2026
SYNOPSIS: STRONG MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WEST-CENTRAL CONUS DURING
WEEK-1 IS FORECAST TO FLATTEN AND BECOME MORE ELONGATED ACROSS THE CONTIGUOUS
U.S. (CONUS) IN WEEK-2. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO REMAIN FAVORED
DURING THE PERIOD, BUT THE MAGNITUDE OF HEAT IS PREDICTED TO DECREASE COMPARED
TO WEEK-1. CONTINUED FRONTAL ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FAVORS INCREASED
WINDS AND RELATIVELY COOLER TEMPERATURES. PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS FAVORS COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS
ALASKA, WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA LEADING TO ENHANCED
WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COASTAL MAINLAND AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA.
HAZARDS
SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, FOUR
CORNERS, AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS, MON-TUE, MAR 23-24.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST, MON, MAR 23.
SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
MAINLAND ALASKA, MON-FRI, MAR 23-27.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF COASTAL SOUTHERN MAINLAND ALASKA AND
SOUTHEAST ALASKA, MON-FRI, MAR 23-27.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR WEDNESDAY MARCH 18 - SUNDAY MARCH 22:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR MONDAY MARCH 23 - SUNDAY MARCH 29: DYNAMICAL MODELS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT REGARDING EXCEPTIONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL CONUS DURING WEEK-1 TIED TO AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS. THE LATEST WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER FORECAST INDICATES
WIDESPREAD POSITIVE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES OF +20 TO +30 DEG F OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. BY DAY-8 (MAR 23), THE GEFS AND ECMWF
ENSEMBLES DEPICT DECREASING POSITIVE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES, A SIGN THAT THAT
MOST SUBSTANTIAL WARMTH IS BEGINNING TO WANE. THEREFORE, THE MODERATE RISK FOR
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS DISCONTINUED, WITH A SLIGHT RISK REMAINING IN
PLACE THROUGH DAY-9 (MAR 24) ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, FOUR CORNERS, AND
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. EARLY IN THE PERIOD, THERE REMAINS SOME SIGNAL IN
THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS (NBM) FOR DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES, ALTHOUGH
SPATIAL COVERAGE IS REDUCED CONSIDERABLY COMPARED TO WEEK-1 AND FOCUSED MAINLY
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE GEFS AND ECMWF PROBABILISTIC
EXTREMES TOOLS (PETS) CONTINUE TO DEPICT ELEVATED CHANCES OF MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING THE 95TH CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE ACROSS THE
HIGHLIGHTED SLIGHT RISK AREA EARLY IN WEEK-2, BUT PROBABILITIES FALL BELOW 20
PERCENT IN BOTH TOOLS ON DAY-10 (MAR 25). ACTUAL TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE
70S DEG F ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN TO THE 80S AND 90S DEG F OVER THE SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME OF THE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY HOTTEST AREAS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
DURING WEEK-2, TROUGHING IS FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC. THE 0Z
GEFS CONTINUES TO DIG THIS FEATURE MORE ACROSS THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS, AND
THE 0Z ECMWF AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES ARE A BIT MORE AMPLIFIED COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. THIS WOULD RESULT IN RELATIVELY COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST ALONG WITH INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES, WITH THE MORE AMPLIFIED
GEFS EXTENDING THIS POTENTIAL FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST. THERE ARE
ALSO ELEVATED SIGNALS FOR INCREASED WIND SPEEDS IN THE GEFS AND ECMWF PETS AND
UNCALIBRATED GUIDANCE ALONG THE WEST COAST TIED TO INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW.
HOWEVER, MODEL UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE PATTERN EVOLUTION PRECLUDES ANY
ADDITIONAL HAZARDS ACROSS THE WEST.
WHILE THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS ARE PREDICTED TO EXPERIENCE WARM
TEMPERATURES, A RELATIVELY COLDER PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S. TIED TO A TROUGH CENTERED OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND THE
NORTHWEST ATLANTIC, ALONG WITH A BLOCKING RIDGE DEVELOPING NEAR GREENLAND. THIS
EMERGING PATTERN RESEMBLES A NEGATIVE PHASE OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION
(-NAO), WHICH WOULD FAVOR A GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
DURING WEEK-2 OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST, GREAT LAKES, AND NORTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC. THE 0Z GEFS, ECMWF, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES ALL DEPICT SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE IN
WEEK-1, WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHEAST AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS. WITH ADDED SUPPORT FROM BOTH THE
GEFS AND ECMWF WIND PETS, WHICH DEPICT AT LEAST A 20 PERCENT CHANCE WIND SPEEDS
EXCEED THE 85TH CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE AND 20-MPH, A SLIGHT RISK FOR HIGH
WINDS IS POSTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST ON MAR 23.
RIDGING AND POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES TO THE WEST OF ALASKA COMBINED
WITH TROUGHING AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA FAVOR INCREASED
PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER MUCH OF ALASKA. GIVEN THE TIME
OF YEAR, IT IS BECOMING HARDER TO REACH HAZARDOUS COLD TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
STATE. HOWEVER, THE GEFS AND ECMWF PETS CONTINUE TO DEPICT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN ALASKA HAVING PROBABILITIES OF AT LEAST 20 PERCENT FOR
TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW THE 10TH CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE PERIOD, WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES (GREATER THAN 40 PERCENT)
FOCUSED FARTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST WHERE THE CORRESPONDING UNCALIBRATED GUIDANCE
INDICATES TEMPERATURES 15-25 DEG F BELOW NORMAL. THESE SIGNALS SUPPORT A
CONTINUED SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MAINLAND ALASKA INTO THE ALASKA PENINSULA, MAR 23-27. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA RESULTS IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT EXTENDING
FROM SOUTHEAST ALASKA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL MAINLAND, WITH THE PETS
SUPPORTING A SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS, MAR 23-27. WHILE THIS SYSTEM FAVORS
INCREASED PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA, AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
BELOW HAZARDS THRESHOLDS.
THE 0Z GEFS, ECMWF, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES DEPICT MID-LEVEL TROUGHING
AMPLIFYING TO THE NORTHWEST OF HAWAII LATE IN WEEK-1, LIKELY BRINGING ANOTHER
ROUND OF ENHANCED PRECIPITATION TO THE STATE. SOME OF THIS MOISTURE IS LIKELY
TO LINGER INTO WEEK-2, ALTHOUGH PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION TOTALS
EXCEEDING THE 85TH CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE IN THE GEFS AND ECMWF PETS ARE
REDUCED COMPARED TO YESTERDAY GIVEN THE TIMING. HOWEVER, PROBABILITIES STILL
EXCEED 20 PERCENT OVER MOST AREAS, WITH A STRONGER SIGNAL ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN ISLANDS EARLY IN THE PERIOD. ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
EXACERBATE FLOODING ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD FROM PREVIOUS EVENTS.
FORECASTER: THOMAS COLLOW
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
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