899
FXUS21 KWNC 161746
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT MARCH 16 2026
SYNOPSIS: MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONTIGUOUS U.S. MAY
SUPPORT LINGERING INCREASED CHANCES FOR MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. MUCH OF THE ANOMALOUS
WARMTH AND HEAT IS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR PRIOR TO WEEK-2. FOR ALASKA, A SURFACE
LOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA MAY BRING HIGH WINDS TO SOUTHERN COASTAL PORTIONS
OF THE STATE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD.
HAZARDS
SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, TUE,
MAR 24.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF COASTAL SOUTHERN ALASKA AND
SOUTHEAST ALASKA, TUE-THU, MAR 24-26.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR THURSDAY MARCH 19 - MONDAY MARCH 23:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR TUESDAY MARCH 24 - MONDAY MARCH 30: MULTIPLE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
POSITIVE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT DEPARTURES ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
AND CENTRAL CONUS DURING WEEK-1, SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENING BY THE ONSET OF
WEEK-2. BY WEEK-2 THERE IS SOME DISPARITY ACROSS MODEL ENSEMBLE MEANS REGARDING
THE EXTENT OF THE POSITIVE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT DEPARTURES. A FAIRLY TRANSIENT
PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE CONUS, WITH A POSSIBLE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TRACKING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS DURING THE EARLIER PORTION OF
WEEK-2 FOLLOWED BY A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE WEST TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF
WEEK-2.
WITH MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE LINGERING ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS
AT THE START OF WEEK-2 FROM THE END OF WEEK-1, SO WILL INCREASED CHANCES OF
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A SLIGHT RISK OF THIS HAZARD IS DESIGNATED FOR
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, MAR 24, WHERE THE GEFS AND ECENS PROBABILISTIC EXTREMES
TOOL (PET) INDICATES AT LEAST A 20% CHANCE OF MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING
THE 90TH PERCENTILE, CLIMATOLOGICALLY, AND 90 DEG F. THE NATIONAL BLEND OF
MODELS SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR NEAR RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S
DEG F IN THE RISK AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO MODERATE THEREAFTER
WITH DECREASING POSITIVE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT ANOMALIES.
THE AFOREMENTIONED POSSIBLE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS AT THE EARLIER PORTION OF WEEK-2 COULD BRING RAINFALL
TO SOME AREAS OF THE EAST, ALTHOUGH NOT ANTICIPATED TO REACH HAZARDS CRITERIA.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS PREDICTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE WEST DURING
THE LATTER PART OF WEEK-2, WITH A POTENTIAL SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED TRAILING
FRONT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. THIS PATTERN COULD SUPPORT ENHANCED PRECIPITATION,
THUNDERSTORMS, AND HIGH WINDS, ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS AND MIDWEST. THIS AREA
WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY IN THE UPCOMING DAYS FOR THE POSSIBLE ADDITION OF
ASSOCIATED HAZARDS.
AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE PREDICTED FOR MUCH OF ALASKA DURING WEEK-1 IS
ANTICIPATED TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY BY THE ONSET OF WEEK-2. THEREFORE, THE MUCH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE HAZARD IS DISCONTINUED IN TODAY’S OUTLOOK. SURFACE LOW
FORMATION OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WITH ADJACENT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH AND EAST ACROSS MAINLAND ALASKA AND WESTERN CANADA MAY SUPPORT A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN COASTAL ALASKA. THUS A SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH
WINDS IS CONTINUED FOR PORTIONS OF COASTAL SOUTHERN ALASKA AND SOUTHEAST
ALASKA, MAR 24-26.
A SURFACE LOW NORTH OF HAWAII COULD CONTINUE ENHANCED RAINFALL FOR PARTS OF THE
STATE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD, IN ADDITION TO A RETURN TO WET WEATHER
TOWARDS THE LATTER PORTION OF WEEK-2.
FORECASTER: MELISSA OU
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page