514
FXUS21 KWNC 171817
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT MARCH 17 2026
SYNOPSIS: DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT COMPARED TO YESTERDAY
INDICATING AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE LINGERING FROM THE END OF WEEK-1
INTO THE BEGINNING OF WEEK-2 ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN CONUS.
THIS PATTERN SUPPORTS INCREASED RISK (MODERATE) AND A SLIGHTLY LARGER AREA OF
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INCLUDING THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS IN THE UPDATED OUTLOOK. ANTICIPATED SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
GREAT PLAINS, SHIFTING EASTWARD LEADS TO ENHANCED LIKELIHOOD OF HIGH WINDS
ACROSS THESE REGIONS. STRONG ONSHORE FLOW TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MAY INCREASE
THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY SNOWFALL TO THE CASCADES IN WASHINGTON AND THE OLYMPIC
PENINSULA AT THE START OF WEEK-2. FOR ALASKA, MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS
PREDICTED FOR THE SOUTHEAST, SUPPORTING BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES, BUT SUCH
TEMPERATURES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO REACH HAZARDOUS CRITERIA AT THIS TIME.
HAZARDS
MODERATE RISK OF MUCH ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS, WED-THU, MAR 25-26.
SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS, WED-FRI, MAR 25-27.
MODERATE RISK OF HIGH WINDS FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS, WED-THU, MAR
25-26.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS FOR THE GREAT PLAINS, WED-FRI, MAR 25-27.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS ACROSS PARTS OF THE EAST, THU-FRI, MAR 26-27.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW FOR THE CASCADES IN WASHINGTON AND THE OLYMPIC
PENINSULA, WED-THU, MAR 25-26.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR FRIDAY MARCH 20 - TUESDAY MARCH 24:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR WEDNESDAY MARCH 25 - TUESDAY MARCH 31: THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG
MULTIPLE ENSEMBLE MEANS INDICATING MID-LEVEL RIDGING LINGERING FROM THE END OF
WEEK-1 INTO EARLY WEEK-2 ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS,
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. ADDITIONALLY, THERE ARE GREATER 500 HPA POSITIVE HEIGHT
DEPARTURES INDICATED FOR THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS TRANSLATES TO INCREASED WARM
SIGNALS FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS. THEREFORE A MODERATE RISK
OF MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES HAS BEEN DESIGNATED FOR THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS, MAR 25-26, WHERE THE ECENS (GEFS) PROBABILISTIC EXTREMES
TOOL (PET) SHOWS AT LEAST A 50-60% (40-50%) CHANCE OF MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
EXCEEDING THE 90TH PERCENTILE, CLIMATOLOGICALLY, AND 90 DEG F. THE NATIONAL
BLEND OF MODELS SHOWS NEAR RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES FOR A MUCH WIDER SPREAD
AREA COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, WITH SOME AREAS IN THE RISK AREA REACHING THE HIGH
90S TO 100 DEG F ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY
ANTICIPATED TO BE LOWER THAN WEEK-1 WHERE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST COULD REACH 105 DEG F OR GREATER. TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO
MODERATE LATER IN WEEK-2, WITH DECREASING POSITIVE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT ANOMALIES.
MULTIPLE MODELS INDICATE MID-LEVEL TROUGHING FORMING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS
MOVING EASTWARD TO THE EAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THIS PATTERN SUPPORTS LEE
CYCLOGENESIS EAST OF THE ROCKIES, WITH MEAN SURFACE LOW ACTIVITY TRACKING
NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTHEAST. WITH ADJACENT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EAST, THERE IS INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WINDS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. A
MODERATE RISK OF HIGH WINDS IS DESIGNATED FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS,
MAR 25-26, AND A BROADER AREA OF SLIGHT RISK FOR THE GREAT PLAINS, MAR 25-26.
THE ECENS (GEFS) PET INDICATES AT LEAST A 40-50% (20%) CHANCE OF WIND SPEEDS
EXCEEDING THE 85TH PERCENTILE COMPARED TO NORMAL, WITH UNCALIBRATED ENSEMBLES
SHOWING AT LEAST A 50% CHANCE OF WIND SPEEDS EXCEEDING 20 MPH. GUSTY WINDS
COMBINED WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY FUELS MAY SUPPORT ENHANCED RISK OF
WILDFIRES ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. ANOTHER BROAD SLIGHT
RISK AREA OF HIGH WINDS IS ALSO HIGHLIGHTED FOR THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY,
MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEASTERN CONUS, MAR 26-27 ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW
TRACKING AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS ACROSS THE REGION. ENHANCED PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE EAST, ALTHOUGH ACCUMULATED TOTALS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED TO REACH HAZARDS CRITERIA. HOWEVER, THUNDERSTORMS WOULD STILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR THE GREAT PLAINS AND MIDWEST.
SURFACE LOW FORMATION OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE AS
STRONG AS INDICATED YESTERDAY IN THE MODELS. THEREFORE, THE RISK OF HIGH WINDS
FOR SOUTHERN ALASKA IS NOT INCLUDED IN TODAY’S OUTLOOK.
A SERIES OF SURFACE LOWS AND FRONTS INCLUDING ONE EXTENDING FROM THE END OF
WEEK-1 INTO THE START OF WEEK-2 COULD BRING PERIODS OF ENHANCED RAINFALL TO
HAWAII. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS PREDICTED FOR THE STATE IN THE CPC WEEK-2
PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK.
FORECASTER: MELISSA OU
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