685
FXUS21 KWNC 181804
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT MARCH 18 2026
SYNOPSIS: MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL CONTIGUOUS U.S. IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CONTINUATION OF ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES INTO WEEK-2. WHILE EXCESSIVE HEAT CONDITIONS ARE LESS OF A CONCERN
DURING THE PERIOD, THE ANOMALOUS WARMTH IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE DRIVING EARLY
SPRINGTIME SNOWMELT FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WEST, WHERE MANY LOCATIONS
HAVE REGISTERED WELL BELOW NORMAL SNOWPACK OVER THE WINTER. SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPMENT IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES IS EXPECTED TO BRING AN ELEVATED RISK OF
HIGH WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
HAZARDS
MODERATE RISK OF HIGH WINDS FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS, THU, MAR 26.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS, UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND GREAT LAKES, THU-FRI, MAR 26-27.
SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE DESERT SOUTHWEST,
ROCKIES, GREAT BASIN AND THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS, THU-SAT, MAR 26-28.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR SATURDAY MARCH 21 - WEDNESDAY MARCH 25:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR THURSDAY MARCH 26 - WEDNESDAY APRIL 01: AT THE START OF WEEK-2, BOTH THE 0Z
GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN 500-HPA HEIGHT FORECASTS CONTINUE TO FEATURE AN
AMPLIFIED ANOMALOUS RIDGE CENTER OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS,
WITH A BROAD COVERAGE OF NEGATIVE HEIGHT DEPARTURES OVER THE HIGHER LATITUDES
IN CANADA. OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS, ENSEMBLES HAVE BECOME MORE RELUCTANT TO
WEAKEN THIS RIDGE ANOMALY, WHICH IMPLIES MORE PERSISTENCE OF ANOMALOUSLY WARM
WEEK-1 TEMPERATURES FAVORED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS INTO WEEK-2. BY LATER NEXT
WEEK, MODELS MAINTAIN AN EASTWARD EXPANSION OF THE ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL RIDGING
TOWARDS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND THE SOUTHEAST, WHILE ALSO AMPLIFYING A MEAN TROUGH
OVER EASTERN CANADA WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING INTO GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST. THIS PATTERN EVOLUTION SUPPORTS AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR THE
INTRUSION OF COLDER AIR OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS, WHILE KEEPING ANOMALOUS
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI.
TIED TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY PROPAGATING ABOVE THE ANOMALOUS RIDGE CENTER IN THE
WEST, SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT REMAINS FAVORED IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES, WHERE
MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT DEPICTING A MEAN SURFACE LOW TRACKING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST EARLY IN WEEK-2. ALTHOUGH THERE IS NOT MUCH OF A PRECIPITATION RESPONSE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM TRACK, LIKELY DUE TO AMPLE MOISTURE BEING MOSTLY CUT
OFF FROM THE GULF, TOOLS CONTINUE TO POINT TO AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR
ELEVATED WINDS. A MODERATE RISK OF HIGH WINDS REMAINS ISSUED (MAR 26) OVER THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WHERE PROBABISITIC EXTREME TOOLS (PETS) SHOW
ELEVATED CHANCES OF WIND SPEEDS EXCEEDING THE 85TH PERCENTILE. A BROADER SLIGHT
RISK AREA ALSO REMAINS ISSUED AND IS EXPANDED EASTWARD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
TO CAPTURE THE POTENTIAL STORM TRACK IN THE UPDATED OUTLOOK. GUSTY WINDS
COMBINED WITH ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY FUELS MAY SUPPORT ENHANCED RISK
OF WILDFIRES ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS.
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW, POTENTIALLY STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IS FAVORED TO DESCEND INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND BRING A SHOT OF
COLDER AIR INTO THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. BASED ON BOTH RAW AND
CALIBRATED TEMPERATURE TOOLS, HOWEVER, THERE IS A GOOD AMOUNT OF DISAGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE GEFS AND ECMWF IN REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH AND EXTENT OF THE
ANOMALOUS COLD AIR. DUE TO WEAKER RIDGING IN THE GEFS, A COLDER TEMPERATURE
RESPONSE IS SEEN DIGGING AS FAR SOUTH AS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE
SOUTHEAST, WHEREAS THE ECMWF IS RELATIVELY WEAKER WITH THE ANOMALOUS COLD AND
LIMITS ITS REACH TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC BY DAYS 9-11 (MAR 27-29).
WHILE FORECAST TEMPERATURES ARE NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR WINTER HAZARDS CRITERIA,
ANY EARLY SPRING COLD SNAP INDUCING NIGHTTIME FROST AND/OR FREEZES MAY
ADVERSELY IMPACT EMERGING SPRINGTIME VEGETATION OVER THE EASTERN CONUS SUCH AS
WHAT IS BEING FELT NOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. A SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WAS CONSIDERED FOR ADDITION, HOWEVER DUE TO THE MODEL
DISPARITIES IN THE SOUTHERN REACH OF THE COLD, THIS PRECLUDES ANY COLD HAZARD
IN THE LATEST OUTLOOK. THIS POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED IN THE
COMING DAYS. AS THE MEAN LOW LIFTS OUT OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES, PERIODS OF
ELEVATED WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHEAST HOWEVER THERE IS LESS SUPPORT IN
THE TOOLS, RESULTING IN THE REMOVAL OF THE CORRESPONDING WIND RISK OVER
NORTHEASTERN CONUS.
UPSTREAM, THE PREVAILING POSITIVE 500-HPAL HEIGHT DEPARTURES ARE EXPECTED TO
BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT MANY PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CONUS. HOWEVER, SIMILAR TO THE EAST, THE ECMWF FAVORS
STRONGER RIDGING THAN THE GEFS PARTICULARLY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF WEEK-2,
RESULTING IN DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF THE ANOMALOUS WARMTH IN THE RAW
TEMPERATURE TOOLS. COMPLICATING THE PICTURE ARE THE PETS, WHICH SHOW A COOLING
(WARMING) TREND OF THE WARM SIGNALS IN PERCENTILE SPACE IN THE GEFS (ECMWF)
SINCE YESTERDAY. BASED ON THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS (NBM) SHOWING A LOWER
NUMBER OF LOCATIONS APPROACHING RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY, THERE IS MORE OF A LEAN TOWARDS THE COOLER GEFS TO REDUCE CONFIDENCE
OF MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE RISK. GIVEN THIS AND THE GENERAL DISCREPANCIES
IN THE TOOLS, THE CORRESPONDING MODERATE RISK IS DISCONTINUED IN THE OUTLOOK.
HOWEVER, A SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAINS POSTED WHERE
BOTH THE GEFS AND ECMWF PETS SHOW AT LEAST A 20% CHANCE FOR MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING THE 95TH PERCENTILE THROUGH DAY 10 (MAR 28). WHILE TOOLS
ARE UNSUPPORTIVE OF TEMPERATURES REACHING EXCESSIVE HEAT THRESHOLDS, THE
ANOMALOUS WARMTH IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE DRIVING EARLY SPRINGTIME SNOWMELT FOR
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WEST, WHERE MANY LOCATIONS HAVE REGISTERED WELL
BELOW NORMAL SNOWPACK OVER THE WINTER.
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS, DIFFERENCES ALSO EXIST BETWEEN THE GEFS AND ECMWF
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE ANOMALOUS RIDGE CENTER. THE GEFS FEATURES
MORE TROUGHING BEGINNING TO UNFOLD TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE PERIOD, WHEREAS THE
ECMWF MAINTAINS MORE RIDGING THROUGH LATE MARCH. REGARDLESS, PRECIPITATION
TOOLS FROM THESE MODELS ARE RATHER SCANT IN TERMS OF ANY HEAVY PRECIPITATION OR
HEAVY SNOW POTENTIAL OVER THIS PART OF THE COUNTRY, AND THE SLIGHT RISK OF
HEAVY SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN CASCADES IS REMOVED.
OVER ALASKA, MODELS HAVE BEEN IMPRESSIVELY CONSISTENT IN MAINTAINING AMPLIFIED
RIDGING TO THE WEST OF THE BERING STRAIT AND DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING OVER THE
MAINLAND AND SOUTHEAST. THIS STABLE PATTERN HAS BROUGHT AND CONTINUES TO BRING
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE STATE. WHILE PETS MAINTAIN
ELEVATED CHANCES FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW THE 15TH PERCENTILE,
ACTUAL TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE ADVISORY THRESHOLDS DUE TO RAPIDLY
INCREASING SPRINGTIME SUN ANGLES AT THE HIGHER LATITUDES, AND NO TEMPERATURE
HAZARDS ARE POSTED.
OVER HAWAII, PERSISTENT KONA LOW ACTIVITY HAS LED TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FLOODING THROUGHOUT THE STATE. ENSEMBLES DO NOT SHOW MUCH CHANGE IN THE
MID-LEVEL PATTERN WITH TROUGHING FAVORED TO PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
LATER IN MARCH. PETS CONTINUE TO INDICATE ELEVATED CHANCES FOR 3-DAY AMOUNTS
EXCEEDING THE 85TH PERCENTILE, WITH SOME LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO RECEIVE OVER AN
INCH THROUGHOUT WEEK-2. THE CONTINUATION OF ABOVE-NORMAL AND POTENTIALLY HEAVY
PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO WORSEN ALREADY SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS AND MAY
TRIGGER ADDITIONAL LOCALIZED FLOODING IN THE STATE.
FORECASTER: NICK NOVELLA
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