089
FXUS21 KWNC 191819
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT MARCH 19 2026
SYNOPSIS: PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN
AND CENTRAL CONTIGUOUS U.S. IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A CONTINUATION OF
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM WEEK-1 INTO WEEK-2. WHILE EXCESSIVE HEAT
CONDITIONS ARE LESS OF A CONCERN DURING THE PERIOD, THE ANOMALOUS WARMTH IS
LIKELY TO CONTINUE DRIVING EARLY SPRINGTIME SNOWMELT FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE WEST, WHERE MANY LOCATIONS HAVE REGISTERED WELL BELOW NORMAL SNOWPACK
OVER THE WINTER. SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT AND AN ACCOMPANYING FRONTAL SYSTEM
TRACKING INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA SUPPORTS AN INCREASED RISK OF HIGH WINDS OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS), WHILE POTENTIALLY STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT MAY BRING BELOW-NORMAL, SUBFREEZING
TEMPERATURES TO IMPACT EMERGING SPRINGTIME VEGETATION FOR PARTS OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.
HAZARDS
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS FOR THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS, FRI-SAT, MAR 27-28.
SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE AND
OHIO VALLEYS, SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS, AND SOUTHEAST, SAT-SUN, MAR 28-29.
SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE DESERT SOUTHWEST,
ROCKIES, GREAT BASIN AND THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS, FRI-MON, MAR 27-30.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR SUNDAY MARCH 22 - THURSDAY MARCH 26:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR FRIDAY MARCH 27 - THURSDAY APRIL 02: THE MEAN WEEK-2 500-HPA HEIGHT
FORECASTS FROM THE GEFS AND ECMWF FEATURE A BROAD COVERAGE OF POSITIVE HEIGHT
DEPARTURES OVERSPREADING THE CONUS, WITH AMPLIFIED TROUGHING OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CANADA. WITH THIS LATTER MEAN MID-LEVEL FEATURE HAVING SHIFTED CLOSER
TO GREENLAND IN THE UPDATED GUIDANCE, THIS PATTERN HAS BECOME MORE CONSISTENT
WITH A POSITIVE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION (+NAO). HISTORICALLY DURING SPRING,
THIS MODE TYPICALLY FAVORS WIDESPREAD ABOVE-NORMAL SPRINGTIME TEMPERATURES
THROUGHOUT THE CONUS, WITH THE STRONGEST POSITIVE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES OVER
THE INTERIOR WEST AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEASTERN
CONUS IN PROXIMITY TO THE MEAN TROUGHING TO THE NORTH. BY LATE NEXT WEEK, THE
GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS REALIZATION,
BOTH FAVORING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES TO USHER IN A
PERIOD OF ANOMALOUS COLD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. IN ADDITION, BETTER
AGREEMENT EXISTS IN THE MODELS REGARDING RIDGING FAVORED UPSTREAM WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO KEEP MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CONUS ON THE WARMER SIDE
FOLLOWING AN UNPRECEDENTED WARM EVENT DURING WEEK-1 PARTICULARLY OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. LATER IN WEEK-2, MODELS HAVE BECOME BETTER ALIGNED IN
FAVORING AN EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE ANOMALOUS RIDGE CENTER TO ALLOW FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF MORE MID-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE WEST. SUCH A PATTERN EVOLUTION
WOULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR LEE CYCLOGENESIS AND PROMOTE THE TRANSITION FOR
WETTER CONDITIONS UNFOLDING OVER THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE IN
MARCH.
TIED TO THE SHORTWAVE PROPAGATING ABOVE THE ANOMALOUS RIDGE CENTER IN THE WEST,
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT REMAINS FAVORED IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES LATE IN
WEEK-1. WHILE THERE IS NOT MUCH OF A PRECIPITATION RESPONSE, TOOLS CONTINUE TO
POINT TO AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MEAN LOW
AND ACCOMPANYING FRONTAL SYSTEM TRACKING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES EARLY IN
WEEK-2. THE STRONGEST WIND POTENTIAL APPEARS TO HAVE TIMED OFF OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS, BUT A SLIGHT RISK OF WINDS IS POSTED (MAR 27-28) WHERE PROBABILISTIC
EXTREMES TOOLS (PETS) MAINTAIN SOME SUPPORT FOR WIND SPEEDS EXCEEDING THE 85TH
PERCENTILE, AND UNCALIBRATED ECMWF SHOW INCREASED CHANCES FOR GUSTS EXCEEDING
40MPH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. ELEVATED WIND SPEEDS STILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS HEADING INTO THE PERIOD, AND ENHANCED WINDS COMBINED WITH
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY FUELS COULD INCREASE THE RISK OF WILDFIRE
ACTIVITY.
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW, POTENTIALLY STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IS FAVORED TO DESCEND FROM SOUTHERN CANADA AND BRING A SHOT OF COLDER
AIR INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS, UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, GREAT LAKES, AND THE
NORTHEAST. BASED ON BOTH RAW AND CALIBRATED TEMPERATURE TOOLS, BETTER AGREEMENT
EXISTS BETWEEN THE GEFS AND ECMWF IN REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH AND COVERAGE OF
ANOMALOUS COLD AIR SINCE YESTERDAY. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO BE
CONCENTRATED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS, BUT PETS SHOW AT LEAST 20% CHANCES
FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW THE 15TH PERCENTILE AND BELOW FREEZING
REACHING SOUTH INTO PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
THE CAROLINAS. WHILE THESE TEMPERATURES ARE NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR WINTER HAZARDS
CRITERIA, ANY EARLY SPRING COLD AIR BRINGING NIGHTTIME FROST AND/OR FREEZES MAY
ADVERSELY IMPACT EMERGING SPRINGTIME VEGETATION. THEREFORE, A SLIGHT RISK OF
MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS HIGHLIGHTED OVER A NARROW AREA IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS FOR MAR 28-29 TO CAPTURE THIS RISK BEFORE TEMPERATURES BEGIN
TO MODERATE LATER IN THE PERIOD.
UPSTREAM, THE PREVAILING POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT DEPARTURES ARE EXPECTED TO
PROLONG MUCH OF THE ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM WEEK-1 INTO WEEK-2
THROUGHOUT MANY PARTS OF THE WESTERN CONUS. COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, THERE IS
LESS OF A WARM SIGNAL IN THE RAW AND CALIBRATED TEMPERATURES TOOLS OVER THE
GREAT PLAINS, AS THE STRONGEST POSITIVE TEMPERATURES DEPARTURES BECOMING MORE
FOCUSED OVER THE INTERIOR WEST AND INTO PARTS OF CALIFORNIA LATE NEXT WEEK. A
SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAINS ISSUED, BUT NOW EXTENDS
THROUGH DAY 11 (MAR 30), WITH ITS COVERAGE ALSO REDUCED (EXPANDED) OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS (NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN) IN THE UPDATED OUTLOOK WHERE PETS SHOW
20-40% CHANCES FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING THE 95TH CLIMATOLOGICAL
PERCENTILE. WITHIN THE HIGHLIGHTED REGION, THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS (NBM)
CONTINUES TO SHOW AN INCREASED NUMBER OF LOCATIONS NEARING RECORD BREAKING
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. WHILE TOOLS ARE LESS SUPPORTIVE OF TEMPERATURES REACHING
EXCESSIVE HEAT THRESHOLDS (UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S DEG F IN THE SOUTHWEST,
UPPER 70S IN THE ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN), THE ANOMALOUS WARMTH IS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE DRIVING EARLY SPRINGTIME SNOWMELT FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
WEST, WHERE MANY LOCATIONS HAVE REGISTERED WELL BELOW NORMAL SNOWPACK OVER THE
WINTER.
WITH MUCH OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGING FAVORED TO DEAMPLIFY AND SHIFT EASTWARD
LATER IN THE PERIOD, THE POSITIVE ANOMALOUS TEMPERATURES ARE LIKEWISE FAVORED
TO FOLLOW THIS EVOLUTION TOWARDS THE END OF MARCH. PETS ARE UNSUPPORTIVE OF ANY
TEMPERATURE RELATED HAZARD RISK, BUT THE COMBINATION OF CONTINUED ANOMALOUS
WARMTH AND DRYNESS SPARKS CONCERNS ON THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF RAPID ONSET
DROUGHT (ROD) PARTICULARLY OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WHERE SOIL MOISTURE IS ON SHARP DECLINE. A CORRESPONDING ROD RISK WAS
CONSIDERED, HOWEVER THE AFOREMENTIONED POTENTIAL FOR FALLING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS
IN THE WEST AND SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT IN LEE OF THE ROCKIES TO BRING
INCREASED PRECIPITATION DURING THE BACK HALF OF WEEK-2 LOOKS TO QUELL THIS
RISK. THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE REEVALUATED IN UPCOMING HAZARD OUTLOOKS.
OVER ALASKA, MODELS HAVE BEEN IMPRESSIVELY CONSISTENT IN MAINTAINING AMPLIFIED
RIDGING TO THE WEST OF THE BERING STRAIT AND DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING OVER THE
MAINLAND AND SOUTHEAST. THIS STABLE PATTERN HAS BROUGHT AND CONTINUES TO BRING
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE STATE. WHILE PETS MAINTAIN
ELEVATED CHANCES FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW THE 15TH PERCENTILE,
ACTUAL TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE ADVISORY THRESHOLDS DUE TO RAPIDLY
INCREASING SPRINGTIME SUN ANGLES AT THE HIGHER LATITUDES, AND NO TEMPERATURE
HAZARDS ARE POSTED.
OVER HAWAII, PERSISTENT KONA LOW ACTIVITY HAS LED TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FLOODING THROUGHOUT THE STATE. ENSEMBLES DO NOT SHOW MUCH CHANGE IN THE
MID-LEVEL PATTERN WITH TROUGHING FAVORED TO PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
LATER IN MARCH. PETS CONTINUE TO INDICATE ELEVATED CHANCES FOR 3-DAY AMOUNTS
EXCEEDING THE 85TH PERCENTILE, WITH 3-DAY TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS EXCEEDING AN INCH
FOR SOME LOCATIONS THROUGHOUT WEEK-2. THE CONTINUATION OF ABOVE-NORMAL AND
POTENTIALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO WORSEN ALREADY SATURATED GROUND
CONDITIONS AND MAY TRIGGER ADDITIONAL LOCALIZED FLOODING IN THE STATE.
FORECASTER: NICK NOVELLA
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