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FXUS21 KWNC 221707
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT MARCH 22 2026
SYNOPSIS: MODEL GUIDANCE FAVORS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE GREAT
PLAINS AT THE OUTSET OF THE WEEK-2 PERIOD, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
PRECIPITATION AND HIGH WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE GREAT PLAINS, GREAT LAKES, AND
MISSISSIPPI, OHIO, AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS.
HAZARDS
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS, LOWER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS, AND
GREAT LAKES, MON-FRI, MAR 30-APR 3.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS, AND
LOWER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, MON-THU, MAR 30-APR 2.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR WEDNESDAY MARCH 25 - SUNDAY MARCH 29:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR MONDAY MARCH 30 - SUNDAY APRIL 05: ENSEMBLE MEAN 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALY
FORECASTS FROM THE 0Z ECENS AND GEFS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT
THE MIDDLE OF WEEK-2, AND DEPICT AMPLIFIED RIDGING OVER THE WEST EARLY IN
WEEK-1, WHICH THEN WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EASTWARD BY THE OUTSET OF WEEK-2 AS
TROUGHING BEGINS TO EMERGE OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC. AT THIS POINT THE ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY, WITH THE ECENS INDICATING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EMERGING AND MOVING OVER THE INTERIOR WEST BY THE MIDDLE OF WEEK-2, WHILE THE
GEFS PREFERS A STRONGER TROUGH OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC WITH SLOWER EASTWARD
PROGRESSION. DIFFERENCES IN SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION ASIDE, BOTH MODELS INDICATE A
ROUND OF LEE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD,
WITH A LARGE AREA OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE RESULTING SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD WITH REGARD TO THE INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE, BUT THIS POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM HAS BEEN ADVERTISED BY BOTH MODELS
FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS AND PATTERN RECOGNITION OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WOULD
TEND TO FAVOR A MORE ROBUST SOLUTION. UNCALIBRATED PROBABILITIES FROM THE ECENS
DEPICT A LARGE SWATH FROM THE GULF COAST TO THE GREAT LAKES WHERE CHANCES OF
3-DAY PRECIPITATION EXCEEDING 1 INCH EXCEED 50% THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF WEEK-2.
THE GEFS IS MUCH LESS BULLISH BUT STILL SHOWS AREAS WHERE CHANCES EXCEED 20% TO
MEET THE ABOVE CRITERIA. GIVEN ALL THIS, A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION
IS POSTED FOR MAR 30-APR 3 FOR A BROAD AREA FROM THE EASTERN PLAINS TO THE
APPALACHIANS, AND FROM THE GULF COAST TO THE GREAT LAKES. MODEL SOLUTIONS
CONTINUE TO DEPICT TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENTS ALONG THE MARGINS OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM, AND ENSEMBLE MEAN WIND SPEEDS EXCEED 20MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE
COUNTRY’S MIDSECTION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH
WINDS IS POSTED FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOR MAR 30-APR 2, DURING WHICH THE WIND SIGNAL AND
MODEL AGREEMENT IS STRONGEST.
OVER HAWAII, PERSISTENT KONA LOW ACTIVITY HAS LED TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FLOODING THROUGHOUT THE STATE. ENSEMBLES DO NOT SHOW MUCH CHANGE IN THE
MID-LEVEL PATTERN WITH TROUGHING FAVORED TO PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
LATER IN MARCH. PETS CONTINUE TO INDICATE ELEVATED CHANCES FOR 3-DAY AMOUNTS
EXCEEDING THE 85TH PERCENTILE, WITH 3-DAY TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS EXCEEDING AN INCH
FOR SOME LOCATIONS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF WEEK-2, AFTER WHICH THE SIGNAL
DIMINISHES SOMEWHAT. THE CONTINUATION OF ABOVE-NORMAL AND POTENTIALLY HEAVY
PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO WORSEN ALREADY SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS AND MAY
TRIGGER ADDITIONAL LOCALIZED FLOODING IN THE STATE.
FORECASTER: DANNY BARANDIARAN
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