327
FXUS21 KWNC 231810
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT MARCH 23 2026
SYNOPSIS: THE ANOMALOUSLY STRONG MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE, CURRENTLY OVER THE
WEST, IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD TO THE EASTERN CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) BY
THE END OF MARCH. DOWNSTREAM OF A WEAK AREA OF MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
THE WESTERN CONUS, MULTIPLE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WITH PERIODS OF ENHANCED
RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE GREAT PLAINS, MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND
MIDWEST DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF APRIL. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED
TO PERSIST ACROSS HAWAII INTO EARLY APRIL.
HAZARDS
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE GREAT PLAINS AND
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, TUE-MON, MAR 31-APR 6.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS FOR PARTS OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL U.S., TUE-MON,
MAR 31-APR 6.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR THURSDAY MARCH 26 - MONDAY MARCH 30:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR TUESDAY MARCH 31 - MONDAY APRIL 06: THE GEFS, ECENS, AND CMCE ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT A LOW-AMPLITUDE 500-HPA TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED NEAR OR JUST
INLAND FROM THE WEST COAST HEADING INTO APRIL. AT THE BEGINNING OF WEEK-2, A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO EJECT EASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND
RESULT IN LEE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS BY MARCH 31. THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT ARE THEN LIKELY TO PROGRESS
EASTWARD TO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ALTHOUGH THE 24-HOUR PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
FROM THE UNCALIBRATED ECENS AND GEFS WOULD SUPPORT A MODERATE RISK FOR HEAVY
PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA, EASTERN TEXAS, AND THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THEIR REFORECAST TOOLS HAVE LOWER PROBABILITIES (<
40% AND <30% IN THE ECENS AND GEFS, RESPECTIVELY) FOR MORE THAN 1 INCH FROM
MARCH 31 - APRIL 2. IT APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST SIGNAL FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION
FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS IS ON APRIL 1 AND 2 AND THE ADDITION OF A MODERATE
RISK MAY BE ADDED TO TUESDAY'S HAZARDS OUTLOOK IF THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT
AMONG THE PRECIPITATION TOOLS. ANOTHER FACTOR IN MAINTAINING ONLY A SLIGHT RISK
OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION WAS A RELATIVELY LOW FLOOD RISK FOR EARLY SPRING DUE TO
ONGOING DROUGHT FOR THAT REGION. SINCE MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS
DEPICT A PERSISTENT 500-HPA TROUGH UPSTREAM OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS ALONG
WITH A CONTINUATION OF MOIST, SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE LOW, A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY
PRECIPITATION FOR THE EASTERN GREAT PLAINS, MIDDLE TO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY,
AND OHIO TO TENNESSEE VALLEYS IS VALID THROUGH THE ENTIRETY OF WEEK-2. GIVEN
THE TIME OF YEAR WITH ADEQUATE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY, THERE IS AN
INCREASED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE DESIGNATED SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY
PRECIPITATION.
EARLY APRIL CLIMATOLOGY AND PREDICTED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EJECTING FROM THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS SUPPORT A SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS FOR THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION, MUCH OF THE GREAT PLAINS, AND PARTS OF THE MIDWEST. DUE A LARGE SPREAD
AMONG THE ECENS AND GEFS MEMBERS ON WHERE LEESIDE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS ALONG THE
HIGH PLAINS (ANYWHERE FROM EASTERN COLORADO TO SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA), AN
EXPANSIVE SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS WAS WARRANTED.
ONCE THE LONGWAVE 500-HPA TROUGH DEVELOPS NEAR THE WEST COAST, THERE COULD BE
ACCUMULATING SNOW AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA NEVADA MOUNTAINS AND
EVEN FARTHER INLAND ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. HOWEVER, HEAVY SNOW IS NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
THE GEFS AND ECENS AGREE THAT A BROAD 500-HPA TROUGH PERSISTS OVER ALASKA
THROUGH EARLY APRIL WHICH WOULD FAVOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR
SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE. HOWEVER, PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
WELL BELOW ANY HAZARDOUS THRESHOLDS.
MULTIPLE KONA LOWS BROUGHT FLOODING RAINFALL TO HAWAII DURING MID-MARCH.
ALTHOUGH THE WEEK-2 OUTLOOK HAS AN INCREASED CHANCE OF ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION, THE ECENS AND GEFS FAVOR MORE OF A WETTER-THAN-NORMAL TRADE WIND
REGIME DURING EARLY APRIL.
FORECASTER: BRAD PUGH
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page