594
FXUS21 KWNC 241809
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT MARCH 24 2026
SYNOPSIS: A PATTERN CHANGE IS FORECAST OVER THE WEST NEXT WEEK AS MID-LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE PROGRESSES INLAND FROM THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC. MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGH-ELEVATION SNOW IS EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN CONTIGUOUS
U.S. (CONUS). BY APRIL 2ND, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS WITH AN ASSOCIATED HIGH WIND AND WILDFIRE RISK. A MULTI-DAY
PERIOD OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE GREAT
PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF APRIL.
HAZARDS
MODERATE RISK OF HIGH WINDS FOR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS, THU-FRI, APR 2-3.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS FOR PARTS OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL U.S., WED-SAT,
APR 1-4.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW FOR THE NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA MOUNTAINS, WED-THU,
APR 1-2.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE GREAT PLAINS, MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY, MIDWEST, AND NORTHEAST, WED-TUE, APR 1-7.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR FRIDAY MARCH 27 - TUESDAY MARCH 31:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR WEDNESDAY APRIL 01 - TUESDAY APRIL 07: THE GEFS AND ECENS HAVE TRENDED
TOWARDS A MORE AMPLIFIED 500-HPA TROUGH OVERSPREADING THE WESTERN CONUS AT THE
BEGINNING OF APRIL. THESE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS DEPICT DAILY 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES OF MORE THAN -60 METERS FOR THIS REGION. FOLLOWING THE MARCH HEAT
WAVE, THIS LONGWAVE PATTERN CHANGE WILL USHER IN SHARPLY COLDER TEMPERATURES TO
CALIFORNIA AND THE GREAT BASIN. A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW (APRIL 1 AND 2) IS
POSTED FOR THE NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA MOUNTAINS WHERE THE UNCALIBRATED ECENS
AND GEFS INDICATE GREATER THAN A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF MORE THAN A FOOT OF SNOW.
ALTHOUGH ACCUMULATING SNOW IS ALSO EXPECTED FARTHER INLAND ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES, THE LACK OF MODEL SUPPORT
FROM THE GEFS PRECLUDES DESIGNATION OF A HEAVY SNOW HAZARD AT THIS TIME.
DOWNSTREAM OF THE AMPLIFIED 500-HPA TROUGH, LEESIDE CYCLOGENESIS IS LIKELY
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS LATER NEXT WEEK. DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ARE CONVERGING ON SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT EITHER OVER EASTERN COLORADO
OR WYOMING. IN ADDITION, A MAJORITY OF GEFS AND ECENS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE
THIS SURFACE LOW RAPIDLY DEEPENING TO 996-HPA OR LOWER. BASED ON IMPROVED MODEL
AGREEMENT WITH THIS EVOLVING SURFACE AND LONGWAVE 500-HPA PATTERN ALONG WITH
SPRINGTIME CLIMATOLOGY, A MODERATE RISK OF HIGH WINDS (APRIL 2 AND 3) IS POSTED
FOR THE HIGH PLAINS, FROM EASTERN WYOMING SOUTH TO THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS
PANHANDLES. UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES DURING THE FINAL WEEK OF MARCH WILL
CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY DRY OUT FUELS ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS. GUSTY WINDS COMBINED
WITH THESE DRY FUELS WILL RESULT IN HIGH WILDFIRE DANGER, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. RECENTLY, THE MORRILL WILDFIRE IN SOUTHWESTERN
NEBRASKA BECAME THE LARGEST IN STATE HISTORY AS IT BURNED MORE THAN 600,000
ACRES. A BROADER SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS COVERS MORE OF THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL CONUS BUT IS DISCONTINUED AFTER APRIL 4TH WHEN MODEL SPREAD INCREASES.
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, THE SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION WAS EXPANDED
NORTH TO INCLUDE MORE OF THE GREAT LAKES AND EAST TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
THIS EXPANSION IS RELATED TO THE ENSEMBLE MEANS PUTTING MORE EMPHASIS ON
ENHANCED PRECIPITATION ALONG A PREDICTED WARM FRONT EARLY IN WEEK-2. THE
BROADENING IN SPATIAL COVERAGE AND TIMING IS NECESSARY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN
THE EXACT TRACK OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TRACKING EAST FROM THE HIGH PLAINS.
CONTINUED DIFFERENCES AMONG THE UNCALIBRATED AND REFORECAST TOOLS PRECLUDE THE
DESIGNATION OF A MODERATE RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME. GIVEN THE
TIME OF YEAR WITH ADEQUATE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY, THERE IS AN
INCREASED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE DESIGNATED SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY
PRECIPITATION.
THE GEFS AND ECENS AGREE THAT A WEAK 500-HPA TROUGH PERSISTS OVER EASTERN
MAINLAND ALASKA THROUGH EARLY APRIL. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED DURING
WEEK-2 WITH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FAVORED
FOR SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE.
MULTIPLE KONA LOWS BROUGHT FLOODING RAINFALL TO HAWAII DURING MID-MARCH.
ALTHOUGH THE WEEK-2 OUTLOOK HAS AN INCREASED CHANCE OF ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION, THE ECENS AND GEFS FAVOR MORE OF A WETTER-THAN-NORMAL TRADE WIND
REGIME DURING EARLY APRIL.
FORECASTER: BRAD PUGH
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