361
FXUS21 KWNC 261807
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT MARCH 26 2026
SYNOPSIS: A PATTERN CHANGE IS FORECAST NEXT WEEK AS MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE INTERIOR WEST PROGRESSES EASTWARD. THIS INCREASES THE CHANCES
FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND HIGH WINDS OVER A LARGE PART OF THE CONTIGUOUS U.S.
(CONUS) FROM PARTS OF THE FAR WEST TO THE APPALACHIANS. AT LEAST ONE SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND FRONTAL COMPLEX IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD, BRINGING ASSOCIATED HIGH WIND, BLOWING DUST, AND
WILDFIRE RISKS TO A LARGE PART OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CONUS. THESE FEATURES
ALSO INCREASE CHANCES FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH
THE INTERIOR EAST, WITH A MODERATE RISK POSTED OVER PARTS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
AND OHIO VALLEYS AND THE ADJACENT GREAT LAKES EARLY IN THE PERIOD, REFLECTING
THE BEST MODEL AGREEMENT. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS MAY FALL LATER IN THE WEEK AS
ANOTHER MID-LEVEL TROUGH FORMS OVER THE INTERIOR WEST, SO THE SLIGHT RISK OF
HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS MAINTAINED THROUGHOUT WEEK-2.
HAZARDS
MODERATE RISK OF HIGH WINDS FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST, SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS, SOUTH-CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS, AND ADJACENT MISSISSIPPI VALLEY,
FRI-SAT, APR 3-4.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS AND THE
GREAT LAKES REGION, FRI-SUN, APR 3-5.
MODERATE RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FROM PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND ADJACENT GREAT LAKES
REGION, FRI-SUN, APR 3-5.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FROM MUCH OF THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS TO THE
APPALACHIANS AND CENTRAL GULF COAST, FRI-THU, APR 3-9.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR SUNDAY MARCH 29 - THURSDAY APRIL 02:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR FRIDAY APRIL 03 - THURSDAY APRIL 09: AT THE START OF WEEK-2, THE CANADIAN
ENSEMBLE (CMCE) AND EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE (ECENS) MEANS DEPICT A FAIRLY AMPLIFIED
500-HPA TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE INTERIOR WEST. THE GEFS MEAN SHOWS A MORE
AMORPHOUS PATTERN WITH A WEAKER MID-LEVEL TROUGH FARTHER NORTH, BUT THIS IS
INCONSISTENT WITH MOST GUIDANCE AND WITH YESTERDAY'S TOOLS, AND IS NOT THE
FAVORED SOLUTION IN THIS FORECAST. THE ECENS AND CMCE MEAN SOLUTIONS DEPICT
500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES 60-120 METERS BELOW NORMAL OVER A LARGE PART OF THE
ROCKIES AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AS WEEK-2 STARTS (APR 3). DURING THE FIRST HALF
OF THE PERIOD, THIS SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EASTWARD AND WEAKEN AS IT
HEADS TOWARD A PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER OR NEAR THE EASTERN CONUS. IN
ITS WAKE, MOST MODELS SHOW A MID-LEVEL TROUGH REDEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF
THIS SECOND FEATURE, BUT MOST GUIDANCE DEPICTS A WEAKER SYSTEM.
FOLLOWING UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER IN MARCH, THIS LONGWAVE PATTERN CHANGE WILL
USHER SHARPLY COLDER TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEST, IN ASSOCIATION WITH HIGHER
SURFACE PRESSURES AND POTENTIALLY HIGH WINDS. FARTHER EAST, THE MID-LEVEL
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO ABET LEE-SIDE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS, WITH AN
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT TO THE EAST AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT TO THE SOUTH.
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE CONVERGING ON SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPMENT EITHER OVER EASTERN COLORADO OR WYOMING, ALTHOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS. GIVEN GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT EARLY WEEK-2 ON THIS EVOLVING SURFACE AND
500-HPA PATTERN, ALONG WITH SPRINGTIME CLIMATOLOGY, A MODERATE RISK OF HIGH
WINDS FOR APRIL 3-4 IS POSTED ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST, CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS, THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS, AND
THE ADJACENT MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A LARGER SLIGHT RISK AREA COVERS MUCH OF THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH APRIL 5 DUE TO
LESS ROBUST MODEL SUPPORT FOR HIGH WINDS, AND INCONSISTENT MODEL SOLUTIONS
BEYOND THE MIDDLE OF WEEK-2. IN ADDITION, ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
BE UNSEASONABLY WARM DURING THE FINAL WEEK OF MARCH, WHICH WILL CONTINUE THE
ONGOING TREND OF DECLINING SURFACE MOISTURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
CONUS. THE COMBINATION OF THE ANTICIPATED GUSTY WINDS WITH DRY SURFACE FLORA
GROWTH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN HIGH WILDFIRE DANGER THROUGH MUCH OF THIS REGION
AT LEAST INTO THE MIDDLE OF WEEK-2, PARTICULARLY IN AREAS NOT AFFECTED BY HEAVY
RAINFALL. THE EXPECTED MID-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE WEST MAY CREATE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO INDUCE DRY THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE PARTS OF THE WEST, WHICH COULD
SERVE AS TRIGGERS FOR FIRE DEVELOPMENT. FARTHER EAST, THE MORRILL WILDFIRE IN
SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA RECENTLY BECAME THE LARGEST IN STATE HISTORY, CONSUMING
MORE THAN 600,000 ACRES. THE YEAR-TO-DATE TOTAL OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS EXCEEDS 920,000 ACRES, COMPARED TO THE 10-YEAR AVERAGE OF ABOUT 650,000
ACRES ACROSS THE ENTIRE CONUS.
THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE GREAT PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES NORTHEASTWARD. A LEADING
WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO FORM AND LIFT NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WHILE A TRAILING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND INTO THE INTERIOR EASTERN CONUS EARLY IN THE PERIOD, POTENTIALLY
ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY RAINFALL. TODAY'S ECENS AND CMCE MEANS ARE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT EARLY WEEK-2, WITH BOTH FORECASTING HEAVY RAINFALL FOCUSED ON SIMILAR
AREAS WITH SIMILAR TIMING. THIS SUPPORTS A MODERATE RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION
WHICH IS POSTED FOR THE FIRST THREE DAYS OF WEEK-2 (APR 3-5) FROM PORTIONS OF
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE TENNESSEE AND
LOWER OHIO VALLEYS, AND THE ADJACENT LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. BOTH THE ECENS
AND CMCE MEANS FORECAST BETWEEN 1 AND 2.5 INCHES OF RAIN IN THIS AREA FOR APR
3-5. THEREAFTER, THE EVOLUTION OF SURFACE CONDITIONS OVER THIS REGION IS
UNCLEAR DUE TO INCREASING MODEL SPREAD, BUT IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT A WEAKER
MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL FORM ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AS A POTENT MID-LEVEL RIDGE
PUSHES INTO THE NORTHEASTERN NORTH PACIFIC. A PREPONDERANCE OF THE MODELS
INDICATE AT LEAST THE POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE PRESSURES OVER THE GREAT PLAINS TO
BEGIN DROPPING AGAIN, RESULTING IN A SLOW-MOVING FRONTAL COMPLEX WHICH WOULD
SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR THE ADDITIONAL HEAVY PRECIPITATION. THE ECENS AND CMCE
MEANS BOTH DROP 2 TO LOCALLY OVER 4 INCHES OF RAIN ON THE MODERATE RISK AREA
FOR WEEK-2 AS A WHOLE, INDICATING THAT ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS LIKELY LATER IN
THE PERIOD. IN ANY CASE, HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
IS EXPECTED TO KEEP A PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF INTO
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND INTERIOR EASTERN CONUS, MAKING ABUNDANT MOISTURE
AVAILABLE FOR ANY MECHANISM THAT COULD TRIGGER SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. THIS SET-UP RAISES THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY
PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE IMPACTING AT LEAST PARTS OF THIS LARGE REGION
THROUGHOUT WEEK-2, WHICH SUPPORTS POSTING A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY RAIN THAT
CONTINUES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THERE IS LARGE MODEL SPREAD, AND THEREFORE
SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY, REGARDING THE TIMING, LOCATION, AND INTENSITY OF ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT DOES DEVELOP LATER WEEK-2, WHICH PRECLUDES POSTING ANY
MODERATE RISKS LATER WEEK-2.
THE CMCE AND ECENS MEANS AGREE THAT WEAK 500-HPA TROUGHING INITIALLY OVER
MAINLAND ALASKA WILL DIMINISH WITH TIME WITH INCREASING 500-HPA HEIGHTS AND
POTENTIALLY SOME MID-LEVEL RIDGING. THIS EVOLUTION DOES NOT SUPPORT HAZARDOUS
WEATHER ACROSS THE STATE DURING WEEK-2, ALTHOUGH MEAN TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE BELOW NORMAL IN SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA, GRADUALLY MODERATING WITH TIME. IN
ADDITION, EVEN THOUGH ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED ACROSS
MOST OF THE STATE, EXCESSIVE AMOUNTS SEEM UNLIKELY.
MULTIPLE KONA LOWS BROUGHT FLOODING RAINFALL TO HAWAII DURING MID-MARCH. THE
OUTLOOK SHOWS SOMEWHAT INCREASED CHANCES OF ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH
AT LEAST PART OF THE FIRST WEEK OF APRIL, BUT THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
WETTER-THAN-NORMAL TRADE WIND REGIME AS OPPOSED TO ADDITIONAL EXCESSIVE
AMOUNTS, WHICH CAN BE TRIGGERED BY KONA LOWS.
FORECASTER: RICH TINKER
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