073
FXUS21 KWNC 271820
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT MARCH 27 2026
SYNOPSIS: MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS FAVORED TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN
CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) NEXT WEEK, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PROMOTE COOLER AND MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOLLOWING AN EXCEPTIONALLY WARM MARCH FOR MANY PARTS OF
THE WESTERN U.S. HOWEVER, SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES
AND ACCOMPANYING FRONTAL ACTIVITY BRINGS AN ELEVATED RISK FOR HIGH WINDS AND
HEAVY PRECIPITATION EARLY IN WEEK-2. THE ELEVATED RISK OF HIGH WINDS IS
EXPECTED TO PROMOTE WILDFIRE RISKS PARTICULARLY IN AREAS NOT AFFECTED BY HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE PERIOD. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN ALSO
SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
CONUS, WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED FLOODING ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO
VALLEY. IN ALASKA, MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE BERING STRAIT IS
EXPECTED TO BRING A CONTINUATION OF NEAR TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE
SOUTHERN MAINLAND AND THE SOUTHEAST.
HAZARDS
MODERATE RISK OF HIGH WINDS FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER FOUR CORNERS AND THE
GREAT PLAINS, SAT, APR 4.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE CONUS EXTENDING FROM THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST NORTHEASTWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES, SAT-SUN, APR 4-5.
MODERATE RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FROM PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS,
MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI, OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND ADJACENT GREAT
LAKES REGION, SAT-SUN, APR 4-5.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FROM MUCH OF THE GREAT PLAINS TO THE
APPALACHIANS AND CENTRAL GULF COAST, SAT-TUE, APR 4-7.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR MONDAY MARCH 30 - FRIDAY APRIL 03:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR SATURDAY APRIL 04 - FRIDAY APRIL 10: BY LATE NEXT WEEK, 500-HPA HEIGHT
FORECASTS FROM THE 0Z GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES GENERALLY FEATURE SHORTWAVE
TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, WITH AMPLIFIED RIDGING OVERSPREADING THE
EASTERN U.S. WHILE THESE MODELS HAVE COME INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT IN
REGARDS TO THIS FORMER MID-LEVEL FEATURE, AND IN THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPMENT IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES SINCE YESTERDAY, THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO
FAVOR A DEEPER AND LESS PROGRESSIVE MEAN TROUGH THAN THE GEFS, LEADING TO A
STRONGER PRECIPITATION RESPONSE ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS EARLY IN WEEK-2.
AS THIS MEAN TROUGHING DEAMPLIFIES TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE PERIOD, THE GEFS
REMAINS EAGER TO BUILD HEIGHTS OVER THE INTERIOR WEST, WHEREAS THE ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MAINTAINS MORE CYCLONIC FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE CENTER
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC. IN ADDITION, THE GEFS IS ALSO BEGINNING TO FAVOR
MORE LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT OVER THE EASTERN CONUS, WHEREAS THE ECMWF
MAINTAINS MORE RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. DURING THE BACK HALF OF
WEEK-2. AS A RESULT OF THESE DIFFERENCES IN THE PREDICTED PATTERN, THERE
CONTINUES TO BE ADDED UNCERTAINTY IN THE HAZARDS OUTLOOK BEYOND THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE PERIOD.
TIED TO THE MID-LEVEL TROUGHING LATE NEXT WEEK, THE GEFS, ECMWF AND CANADIAN
ENSEMBLES HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FEATURING A MEAN SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPMENT MAINLY OVER EASTERN COLORADO ON DAY 7 (APR 3). WITH THE MEAN
SURFACE LOW FAVORED TO BE SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY DAY 8 (APR
4), ENHANCED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE DEPICTED ALONG A LARGE COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY, EXTENDING FROM THE MEAN LOW CENTER INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. COMPARED TO THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN, THE GEFS REMAINS THE
WEAKEST WITH THE MEAN LOW AND PRECIPITATION TOTALS, HOWEVER THERE CONTINUES TO
BE SUPPORT IN THE UNCALIBRATED TOOLS SHOWING AT LEAST 30% CHANCES FOR 3-DAY
AMOUNTS EXCEEDING AN INCH ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THEREFORE, A MODERATE RISK OF
HEAVY PRECIPITATION REMAINS ISSUED AND VALID THROUGH APR 5, WITH ADDED COVERAGE
OVER EASTERN TEXAS WHERE THE ECMWF PROBABILISTIC EXTREME TOOL (PET) INDICATES
40-50% CHANCES FOR 3-DAY AMOUNTS EXCEEDING THE 85TH PERCENTILE AND 1 INCH.
GIVEN THE FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC SETUP OF AMPLE MOISTURE AND FORCING, AND THE
UNCALIBRATED ECMWF SHOWING >60% (>30%) FOR 3-DAY AMOUNTS EXCEEDING AN INCH (TWO
INCHES), A HIGH RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION WAS CONSIDERED, HOWEVER THE DRIER
GEFS AND DISCREPANCIES IN THE PATTERN ALOFT PRECLUDE THIS RISK DESIGNATION AT
THIS TIME. A BROADER SLIGHT RISK AREA OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION REMAINED POSTED
WHERE BOTH RAW AND CALIBRATED PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION EXCEEDANCE ARE
LESS, AND VALID THROUGH DAY 11 (APR 7) WHERE TOOLS SHOW A LINGERING HEAVY
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF WEEK-2. WITHIN THE HIGHLIGHTED
RISK AREAS, THERE IS ALSO THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE LIKELY TO REACH THE UPPER 60S
(DEG F), AS WELL AS THE POSSIBILITY FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING FURTHER NORTH OVER
PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY WHERE THERE IS A LIMITED RISK OF FLOODING DUE TO
ENHANCED PRECIPITATION FORECAST DURING WEEK-1.
FOLLOWING UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER IN MARCH THROUGHOUT THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
CONUS, THE FAVORED TROUGHING WILL USHER COLDER TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEST,
ALONG WITH HIGHER MEAN SURFACE PRESSURE TO POTENTIALLY INDUCE EPISODES OF HIGH
WINDS. DESPITE THE GEFS HAVING SHALLOWER TROUGHING THAN THE ECMWF, STRONGER
MEAN HIGH PRESSURE IS DEPICTED IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE LOW THROUGHOUT THE
WEST AND THE HIGH PLAINS RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY, SUPPORTIVE OF MAINTAINING AN
ELEVATED RISK OF HIGH WINDS. BASED ON FAIR AGREEMENT IN THE UNCALIBRATED TOOLS
DEPICTING INCREASED CHANCES FOR WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 34 KNOTS, A MODERATE RISK
OF HIGH WINDS REMAINS ISSUED FROM EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER FOUR CORNERS AND
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR APR 4. A BROADER SLIGHT RISK AREA REMAINS POSTED AND
VALID THROUGH APR 5.
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO BE UNSEASONABLY WARM DURING THE FINAL WEEK
OF MARCH, WHICH WILL CONTINUE THE ONGOING TREND OF DECLINING SURFACE MOISTURE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CONUS. THE ELEVATED RISK OF HIGH WINDS IS
EXPECTED TO PROMOTE WILDFIRE DANGER THROUGH MUCH OF THIS REGION AT LEAST INTO
THE MIDDLE OF WEEK-2, PARTICULARLY IN AREAS NOT AFFECTED BY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE
PREDICTED MID-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE WEST MAY CREATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO INDUCE
DRY THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE PARTS OF THE WEST, WHICH COULD SERVE AS TRIGGERS FOR
FIRE DEVELOPMENT. THE MORRILL WILDFIRE IN SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA RECENTLY BECAME
THE LARGEST IN STATE HISTORY, CONSUMING MORE THAN 600,000 ACRES. THE
YEAR-TO-DATE TOTAL OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS EXCEEDS 920,000 ACRES,
COMPARED TO THE 10-YEAR AVERAGE OF ABOUT 650,000 ACRES ACROSS THE ENTIRE CONUS.
OVER ALASKA, PREVAILING NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF A PERSISTENT
500-HPA MEAN RIDGE ESTABLISHED OVER THE BERING STRAIT IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO
NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND, ALEUTIANS
AND THE SOUTHEAST. NO TEMPERATURE HAZARDS ARE POSTED. ACROSS HAWAII,
PERSISTENT KONA LOW ACTIVITY BROUGHT HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING TO THE STATE
DURING MID-MARCH. GUIDANCE SHOWS A RETURN TO A MORE SEASONABLE TRADE WIND
REGIME, AND ALTHOUGH ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED, ANY HEAVY
PRECIPITATION RISK LOOKS TO BE KEPT TO THE SOUTH CLOSER TO THE EQUATOR IN THE
PETS, AT LEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF WEEK-2.
FORECASTER: NICK NOVELLA
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