206
FXUS21 KWNC 281745
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT MARCH 28 2026
SYNOPSIS: FORECAST MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PROMOTE COOLER AND
MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND FOLLOWING AN EXCEPTIONALLY WARM MARCH
FOR MANY PARTS OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS). HOWEVER, A
POTENTIALLY STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS AN ELEVATED RISK FOR HIGH WINDS AND
HEAVY PRECIPITATION EARLY IN WEEK-2, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS. IN ALASKA, MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
LOCATED OVER THE BERING STRAIT IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CONTINUATION OF NEAR TO
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND.
HAZARDS
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FROM MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, LOWER AND
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI, TENNESSEE, AND OHIO VALLEYS, SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS,
SOUTHEAST, AND MID-ATLANTIC, SUN-MON, APR 5-6.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE PORTIONS OF MIDDLE AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS, GREAT LAKES AND THE NORTHEAST, SUN, APR 5.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR TUESDAY MARCH 31 - SATURDAY APRIL 04:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR SUNDAY APRIL 05 - SATURDAY APRIL 11: BY THE OUTSET OF WEEK-2, DYNAMICAL
MODEL 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALY FORECASTS FROM THE GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES
CONTINUE TO FAVOR SHORTWAVE TROUGHING LIFTING OUT OVER THE GREAT LAKES,
BOOKENDED BY A PAIR OF ANOMALOUS RIDGE CENTERS SITUATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
AND NORTHEASTERN CONUS. AT THE SURFACE, A MEAN SURFACE LOW TRACKING INTO
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND AN ACCOMPANYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHING INTO THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. LOOKS TO INCREASE THE RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NEXT WEEKEND. CONSISTENT WITH
PREVIOUS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE, THE ECMWF IS DEEPER WITH THIS MID-LEVEL TROUGHING
FEATURE AND FAVORS A STRONGER PRECIPITATION RESPONSE ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
CONUS COMPARED TO THE GEFS. BEYOND THIS LEAD, HOWEVER, DIVERGING MEAN SOLUTIONS
ARE INCREASINGLY EVIDENT BETWEEN THE GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES. THE GEFS REMAINS
EAGER TO RELOAD HEIGHTS ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST, IMPLYING A SHORT RESPITE TO
THE UNPRECEDENTED MARCH WARMTH BEING FELT ACROSS WEST, WHILE ALSO DEVELOPING
MORE OF A DEEPER MEAN TROUGH DOWNSTREAM ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. BY
CONTRAST, THE ECMWF IS COMPARABLY MORE ZONAL AND MUTED ACROSS THE WEST, WHILE
FAVORING MORE RIDGING TO PERSIST OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND EASTERN SEABOARD
LATER IN WEEK-2. AS A RESULT OF THESE VARIATIONS IN THE HEIGHT PATTERN, THERE
CONTINUES TO BE HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE HAZARD OUTLOOK LATER IN APRIL.
TIED TO THE PREDICTED FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY,
PROBABILISTIC EXTREMES TOOLS (PETS) HAVE BECOME LESS SUPPORTIVE OF A HEAVY
PRECIPITATION RISK EARLY IN THE PERIOD, WITH MUCH OF THIS THREAT NOW TIMING OFF
INTO THE WEEK-1 PERIOD. WHILE THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN FAVORABLE
NEXT WEEKEND, CHARACTERIZED BY GOOD FORCING AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION, THE ECMWF HAS BECOME AN OUTLIER WITH THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION RISK
LINGERING INTO DAY 8 (APR 5). THE UNCALIBRATED ECMWF SHOWS 30-50% (20%) CHANCES
FOR 3-DAY AMOUNTS EXCEEDING AN INCH (TWO INCHES), WHEREAS THE GEFS SHOWS
VIRTUALLY NO SIGNAL EARLY IN THE PERIOD. GIVEN THE DRIER SOLUTIONS IN THE
UNCALIBRATED GEFS AND CANADIAN, AS WELL AS THE WEAKER PETS, THE MODERATE RISK
OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS DISCONTINUED IN THE UPDATED OUTLOOK. HOWEVER, A
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION REMAINS POSTED AND VALID THROUGH APR 6, WITH
ITS COVERAGE ADJUSTED TO INCLUDE (EXCLUDE) PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND
MID-ATLANTIC (NORTHEASTERN CONUS) RELATIVE TO THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK. WITHIN THE
HIGHLIGHTED RISK AREA, THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION WHERE DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS SHOW
DEWPOINTS REACHING THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S (DEG F).
THE FAVORED TROUGHING AND ACCOMPANYING MEAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO USHER COLDER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL CONUS, WHILE MAINTAINING AN INCREASED RISK OF HIGH WINDS NEXT WEEKEND.
SIMILAR TO PRECIPITATION, THE STRONGEST SIGNALS FOR HIGH WINDS APPEAR TO BE
TIMING OFF INTO WEEK-1, AND THE CORRESPONDING MODERATE RISK AREA IS REMOVED IN
THE UPDATED OUTLOOK. HOWEVER, A SLIGHT RISK REMAINS POSTED OVER PARTS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS AND THE GREAT LAKES WHERE THERE IS ENSEMBLE
SUPPORT FOR WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 34 KNOTS BEHIND THE MEAN SURFACE LOW EARLY IN
WEEK-2. WITH THE HIGH WIND RISK SHIFTED EASTWARD IN THE OUTLOOK AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES FAVORED UPSTREAM ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST AND GREAT PLAINS, THIS
IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS FAVORABLE FOR WILDFIRE ACTIVITY, AT LEAST INITIALLY IN
THE PERIOD. RAW TEMPERATURE TOOLS DEPICT WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURNING OVER
THIS PART OF THE COUNTRY BY THE MIDDLE OF WEEK-2, BUT ANY SUBSEQUENT WIND
AND/OR WILDFIRE RISK IS UNCERTAIN IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY ORGANIZING TROUGHING
FEATURES ALOFT OVER THE WEST IN THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. WITH THE DEEPER
TROUGHING FAVORED IN THE GEFS OVER THE EASTERN U.S., THE GEFS PET FEATURES
INCREASED CHANCES FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW THE 15TH PERCENTILE
DIPPING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AS THE MEAN SURFACE HIGH SETTLES EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF WEEK-2. HOWEVER, THERE IS LITTLE TOOL SUPPORT
FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW FREEZING SOUTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY THAT
WOULD ADVERSELY AFFECT EMERGING SPRINGTIME VEGETATION.
OVER ALASKA, PREVAILING NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF A PERSISTENT
500-HPA MEAN RIDGE ESTABLISHED OVER THE BERING STRAIT IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO
NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND, ALEUTIANS
AND THE SOUTHEAST. NO TEMPERATURE HAZARDS ARE POSTED. ACROSS HAWAII,
PERSISTENT KONA LOW ACTIVITY BROUGHT HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING TO THE STATE
DURING MID-MARCH. GUIDANCE SHOWS A RETURN TO A MORE SEASONABLE TRADE WIND
REGIME, AND ALTHOUGH ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED, ANY HEAVY
PRECIPITATION RISK LOOKS TO BE KEPT TO THE SOUTH CLOSER TO THE EQUATOR IN THE
PETS, AT LEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF WEEK-2.
FORECASTER: NICK NOVELLA
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
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