639
FXUS21 KWNC 301803
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT MARCH 30 2026
SYNOPSIS: SOUTHERLY WINDS FORECAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS)
BY THE MIDDLE OF WEEK-2, ALONG WITH A WEAK MID-LEVEL LOW OVER THE ROCKIES,
INCREASES CHANCES FOR HIGH WINDS AND HEAVY PRECIPITATION INTO THE REGION. IN
THE WEST, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED BUT ARE NOT CURRENTLY FORECAST
TO BE AS ANOMALOUS AS THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS.
HAZARDS
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS, MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND ADJACENT AREAS, FRI-SUN, APR
10-12.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS FOR PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN, CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
ROCKIES, AND PLAINS, THU-MON, APR 9-13.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR THURSDAY APRIL 02 - MONDAY APRIL 06:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR TUESDAY APRIL 07 - MONDAY APRIL 13: AT THE OUTSET OF WEEK-2, DYNAMICAL
MODEL 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALY FORECASTS FAVOR WEAKLY ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS AND
ZONAL FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS. WEAK TROUGHS ARE FAVORED OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS AND ALONG THE WEST COAST EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW. BY THE MIDDLE OF
WEEK-2, MID-LEVEL RIDGING HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH A
TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE, SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW FROM
THE GULF WILL BRING INCREASED SURFACE MOISTURE INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS.
CONCURRENTLY, AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF
THE ROCKIES. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES INCREASES CHANCES FOR HEAVY
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. UNCALIBRATED GUIDANCE
INDICATES AT LEAST A 20% CHANCE OF 3 DAY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF MORE THAN ONE
INCH IN THIS REGION. THEREFORE, A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS POSTED
FOR APR 10-12. CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST, PLAINS
AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES, HIGH WINDS ARE ONCE AGAIN A CONCERN.
UNCALIBRATED GUIDANCE FROM THE GEFS AND ECENS HIGHLIGHTS ELEVATED CHANCES FOR
WIND GUSTS ABOVE 34KNOTS IN THE WIND AREA. THIS COULD LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THIS REGION ONCE AGAIN DURING THE MIDDLE OF APRIL.
THEREFORE, A SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS IS POSTED FOR APR 9-13.
ANOMALOUSLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS DURING WEEK-2,
PARTICULARLY EARLY IN THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, AT THIS TIME, TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED TO BE LESS ANOMALOUS THAN IN RECENT WEEKS WITH LESS THAN A 10% CHANCE
OF TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING THE 95TH PERCENTILE IN THE GEFS AND ECENS
PROBABILISTIC EXTREMES TOOLS (PETS).
ACROSS HAWAII, PERSISTENT KONA LOW ACTIVITY BROUGHT HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING
TO THE STATE DURING MID-MARCH. GUIDANCE SHOWS A RETURN TO A MORE SEASONABLE
TRADE WIND REGIME, AND ALTHOUGH ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED, ANY
PARTICULARLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION RISK LOOKS TO BE KEPT TO THE SOUTH CLOSER TO
THE EQUATOR IN THE PETS.
FORECASTER: RYAN BOLT
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