494
FXUS21 KWNC 021953
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT APRIL 02 2026
SYNOPSIS: THE RETURN OF DEVELOPING MID-LEVEL LOW (HIGH) PRESSURE ACROSS THE
WESTERN (EASTERN) CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) INCREASES CHANCES FOR HEAVY
PRECIPITATION AND HIGH WINDS MAINLY ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS, MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY, AND ADJACENT PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF WEEK-2. A SOMEWHAT MILDER TEMPERATURE PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR
ALASKA, WHICH REPRESENTS QUITE A CHANGE FROM THE LONG, AND STRONGLY ANOMALOUS
COLD WINTER THE STATE EXPERIENCED. KONA LOW ACTIVITY MAY BRING ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION TO THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.
HAZARDS
HIGH RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, FRI-SAT, APR 10-11.
MODERATE RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS MUCH OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND ADJACENT PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY,
GREAT LAKES, FRI-SUN, APR 10-12.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE GREAT PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY, PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS, AND GREAT LAKES REGION,
FRI-MON, APR 10-13.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE GREAT PLAINS, MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND
PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES,, FRI-MON, APR 10-13.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR SUNDAY APRIL 05 - THURSDAY APRIL 09:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR FRIDAY APRIL 10 - THURSDAY APRIL 16: TOWARDS THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF
NEXT WEEK, DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FEATURING SHORTWAVE TROUGHING
LIFTING OUT OVER THE EASTERN CONUS, AND BEING REPLACED BY ANOMALOUS 500-HPA
RIDGING SHIFTING EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT PLAINS. AS THIS RIDGING BECOMES
ESTABLISHED AND AMPLIFIES OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. LATE NEXT WEEK, MODELS
REMAIN CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE INTERIOR WEST,
FAVORABLE FOR SURFACE LOW FORMATION IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THE TROUGH IS
PREDICTED TO BE STRONGER TODAY RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY, AND LEADS TO ELEVATED
CHANCES FOR POTENTIALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION ALONG WITH EPISODES OF HIGH WINDS
ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
BY THE START OF WEEK-2, INCREASED LOW-LEVEL GULF MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO
OVERSPREAD MOST AREAS IN-BETWEEN THE ROCKIES AND THE APPALACHIANS, AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EXTENDS BACK INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. THIS MOISTURE, COMBINED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS, FAVORS A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE
GREAT PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS,
AND GREAT LAKES REGION, FRI-MON, APR 10-13. A MODERATE RISK OF HEAVY
PRECIPITATION IS POSTED WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK REGION, FRI-SUN, APR 10-12. A
HIGH RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS POSTED FOR A FAIRLY SMALL AREA CENTERED
NEAR AND JUST WEST OF THE ARKLATEX REGION, VALID FRI-SAT, APR 10-11. THESE
SLIGHT, MODERATE, AND HIGH RISK AREAS FAVORING HEAVY PRECIPITATION ARE
SUPPORTED BY UNCALIBRATED GEFS AND ECENS PRECIPITATION FORECASTS, WITH THE
ECENS PREDICTING AT LEAST A 50-60% CHANCE OF 1-INCH OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION, AND A 30-40% CHANCE OF
2-INCHES OR MORE FOCUSED NEAR THE ARKLATEX REGION (DAYS 8-10). IN COMPARISON,
THE UNCALIBRATED GEFS PREDICTS AT LEAST A 50-60% CHANCE OF 1-INCH OF
PRECIPITATION FOR THE MORE SOUTHERN REGIONS, FROM THE EASTERN SOUTHERN PLAINS
ACROSS THE OZARKS, AND A 30-40% CHANCE OF 2-INCHES OR MORE FROM EASTERN
OKLAHOMA INTO CENTRAL ARKANSAS (DAYS 8-10). THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS OVER PARTS OF TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA WHERE DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS SHOW
THE RETURN OF ELEVATED DEWPOINTS REACHING THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S (DEG F),
WITH A SHARP DRYLINE GRADIENT TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
ANY HEAVY PRECIPITATION REALIZED DURING EARLY WEEK-2 ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOLLOWS A PARTICULARLY WET WEEK-1 OVER THIS PART OF THE
COUNTRY WHERE THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER (WPC) FORECASTS UPWARDS OF 1-3
INCHES OF RAIN, AND THE NATIONAL WATER CENTER (NWC) DEPICTS A LIMITED FLOODING
ZONE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY IN THEIR OUTLOOK.
GIVEN THAT NEARLY A WEEK WILL HAVE PASSED FOR GROUND CONDITIONS TO DRY OUT
BEFORE THIS HEAVY PRECIPITATION RISK RETURNS THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND, NO
CORRESPONDING FLOODING HAZARDS ARE POSTED, HOWEVER LOCALIZED STREAMFLOW AND/OR
URBAN FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING WEEK-2.
AT THE BASE AND AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE INTERIOR WEST, THERE
CONTINUES TO BE AN INCREASED RISK OF HIGH WINDS. DESPITE THE HIGHER RISK OF
HEAVY PRECIPITATION IN THE UPDATED OUTLOOK, THE WIND PROBABILISTIC EXTREMES
TOOLS (PETS) ARE RATHER MUTED OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS WITH LITTLE TO
NO SIGNAL FOR SPEEDS EXCEEDING THE 85TH PERCENTILE. THE UNCALIBRATED ECMWF AND
GEFS CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNIFICANTLY HEIGHTENED CHANCES (AT LEAST 50-70%) FOR
WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 20 KNOTS WITHIN THE DESIGNATED SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR HIGH
WINDS THAT INCORPORATES MUCH OF THE REGION BETWEEN THE ROCKIES AND
APPALACHIANS, FRI-MON, APR 10-13. GIVEN THE PREDICTED, INCREASED STRENGTH OF
THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH TODAY, IT MAY BE NECESSARY TOMORROW TO GO WITH A
MODERATE RISK AREA OF HIGH WINDS PENDING RE-EVALUATION OF THE LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE. IN ANY EVENT, WITH ANOMALOUS WARMTH FAVORED FOR THE PLAINS LEADING UP
TO THE INCREASED WIND RISK, ANY EPISODES OF HIGH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PROMOTE
FIRE WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THIS REGION INTO THE MIDDLE OF WEEK-2,
PARTICULARLY IN AREAS NOT HAVING REGISTERED ANY ABOVE-NORMAL RAINFALL IN RECENT
WEEKS.
NO HAZARDS ARE ISSUED OVER ALASKA. WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO PREDOMINATELY
FAVORED TIED TO POSITIVE HEIGHT DEPARTURES EXPANDING EASTWARD FROM THE BERING
SEA INTO PARTS OF THE MAINLAND. THIS TEMPERATURE TREND FOLLOWS A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FELT THROUGHOUT THE STATE THIS WINTER, AS
ANY DRASTIC WARMUP COMBINED WITH RAPIDLY INCREASING SUN ANGLES OVER THE HIGHER
LATITUDES MAY ACCELERATE SPRINGTIME THAWS.
ACROSS HAWAII, PERSISTENT KONA LOW ACTIVITY BROUGHT HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING
DURING MID-MARCH. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE RETURN OF AN APPROACHING
MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN, WHICH MAY TRIGGER ADDITIONAL
KONA LOW ACTIVITY AND RENEW THE RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION DURING THE PERIOD.
PETS SHOW INCREASED CHANCES FOR 3-DAY AMOUNTS EXCEEDING THE 85TH PERCENTILE AND
ABOUT 0.75-INCH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF WEEK-2, HOWEVER THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS (3-DAY AMOUNTS GREATER THAN 1 INCH) ARE FAVORED OFFSHORE AT THIS TIME.
ANY HEAVY PRECIPITATION DURING WEEK-2 MAY WORSEN ALREADY SATURATED GROUND
CONDITIONS, AND POSSIBLY TRIGGER LOCALIZED FLOODING IN THE STATE.
FORECASTER: ANTHONY ARTUSA
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