865
FXUS21 KWNC 031839
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT APRIL 03 2026
SYNOPSIS: MID-LEVEL LOW (HIGH) PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN (EASTERN) CONTIGUOUS
U.S. (CONUS) INCREASES CHANCES FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND HIGH WINDS ACROSS
MOST OF THE PLAINS, THE MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS, PARTS OF THE OHIO
VALLEY, AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE FIRST HALF OF WEEK-2. HEAVY RAIN
APPEARS MOST LIKELY ACROSS NORTHEASTERN TEXAS, EASTERN OKLAHOMA, WESTERN
ARKANSAS, AND ADJACENT LOUISIANA DURING THE FIRST TWO DAYS OF THE PERIOD, AND A
HIGH RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS POSTED THERE. UNUSUALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS
AND POSSIBLE KONA LOW ACTIVITY MAY BRING ADDITIONAL HEAVY PRECIPITATION TO
HAWAII, ESPECIALLY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF WEEK-2.
HAZARDS
HIGH RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN GREAT PLAINS
AND ADJACENT LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, SAT-SUN, APR 11-12.
MODERATE RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS MUCH OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND ADJACENT PARTS OF THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS, AND THE GREAT LAKES, SAT-MON, APR 11-13.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE PLAINS, MUCH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS, THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION,
SAT-TUE, APR 11-14.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE PLAINS, MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, OHIO
VALLEY, AND GREAT LAKES, SAT-SUN, APR 11-12.
FLOODING POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN GREAT PLAINS AND ADJACENT
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR MONDAY APRIL 06 - FRIDAY APRIL 10:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR SATURDAY APRIL 11 - FRIDAY APRIL 17: MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ESTABLISHING MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND UPSTREAM TROUGHING
ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST LATE WEEK-1. THIS TROUGH SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD,
WITH SEVERAL VORTICITY CENTERS POTENTIALLY MOVING THROUGH THE SYSTEM DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF WEEK-2. THE PREDICTED STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH IS SIMILAR TO OR
SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN PREDICTED YESTERDAY, SLOWLY WEAKENING AS THE PERIOD
PROGRESSES. THIS PATTERN ELEVATES THE CHANCES FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND
EPISODES OF HIGH WINDS ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE CENTRAL AND INTERIOR EASTERN
CONUS.
BY THE START OF WEEK-2, INCREASED LOW-LEVEL GULF MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO
OVERSPREAD MOST AREAS BETWEEN THE ROCKIES AND THE APPALACHIANS, AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EXTENDS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS. FARTHER WEST, THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE LOWER SURFACE
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS, SETTING THE STAGE FOR SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER(S) AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL COMPLEX(ES) TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION. THE
INFLUX OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO A REGION OF CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW AND
WAVERING FRONTAL BOUNDARIES INCREASES THE ODDS FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION OVER A
LARGE PART OF THE CENTRAL AND INTERIOR NORTHEASTERN CONUS DURING AT LEAST THE
FIRST HALF OF WEEK-2. GUIDANCE HAS CONSISTENTLY FORECAST THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS
OVER NORTHEASTERN TEXAS, EASTERN OKLAHOMA, AND THE ADJACENT MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
FROM LATE WEEK-1 THROUGH THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF WEEK-2. ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE EXCESSIVE, THE CONSISTENCY WITH WHICH GUIDANCE HAS FAVORED
MODERATE TO HEAVY AMOUNTS ACROSS THIS REGION JUSTIFIES A HIGH RISK OF HEAVY
PRECIPITATION THERE FOR THE FIRST TWO DAYS OF THE PERIOD (SAT-SUN, APR 11-12).
THERE IS SOMEWHAT MORE DIVERGENCE AMONG THE GUIDANCE ELSEWHERE REGARDING THE
LOCATION AND TIMING OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION, BUT MOST TOOLS GENERALLY AGREE THAT
ONE OR MORE ROUNDS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE ALONG A SWATH FROM TEXAS
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION, SUPPORTING A MODERATE RISK OF HEAVY
PRECIPITATION THERE EXTENDING THROUGH MON APR 13. THERE IS CONSIDERABLY MORE
UNCERTAINTY TO THE WEST AND EAST OF THIS PRIMARY THREAT AREA, BUT THE SITUATION
COULD TRIGGER HEAVY PRECIPITATION AS FAR WEST AS THE GREAT PLAINS AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND AS FAR EAST AS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST, THE WESTERN
APPALACHIANS, AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION AT TIMES DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
WEEK-2. THIS POTENTIAL SUPPORTS A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THIS BROAD AREA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF WEEK-2 (SAT-TUE APR 11-14). CONTINUOUS
HEAVY PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THIS REGION AND TIME PERIOD SEEMS UNLIKELY, BUT
THE SYNOPTIC SITUATION IS FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF PERIODIC, LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN FROM HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT DIFFERENT PARTS OF THIS REGION AT
VARYING TIMES, WHENEVER THERE IS A COMBINATION OF UNUSUAL STRONG LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE INFLUX, A FOCUSING FRONTAL BOUNDARY, AND SURFACE INSTABILITY. THE
PROBABILISTIC EXTREMES TOOLS (PETS) DERIVED FROM THE GEFS, EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE
(ECENS), AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE (CMCE) ARE NOT PARTICULARLY BULLISH ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION, WITH ONLY THE ECENS SHOWING ANY AREAS WITH A
GREATER THAN 40 PERCENT CHANCES FOR 3-DAY PRECIPITATION TOTALS ABOVE THE 15
PERCENTILE CLIMATOLOGICAL THRESHOLD (CENTERED OVER TEXAS AND ADJACENT LOCALES).
HOWEVER, AT LEAST A COUPLE INCHES OF RAIN ARE DEPICTED ON THE DETERMINISTIC
EUROPEAN (ECMWF) AND AIGFS MODELS AS WELL AS THE ECENS AND CMCE MEANS ACROSS
DIFFERENT PARTS OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA, WITH THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS CONSISTENTLY
CENTERED OVER NORTHEASTERN TEXAS, EASTERN OKLAHOMA, AND ADJACENT ARKANSAS AND
LOUISIANA. A FEW TOOLS SHOW AT LEAST SOME RISK OF ADDITIONAL HEAVY
PRECIPITATION LATER WEEK-2, BUT THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AND MODEL
DISPARITY TO JUSTIFY POSTING ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY PRECIPITATION RISKS AT THIS
TIME.
ANY HEAVY WEEK-2 PRECIPITATION FALLING IN THE HIGH RISK REGION WILL BE ON TOP
OF HEAVY AMOUNTS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ACCORDING TO THE NATIONAL
WATER CENTER (NWC), THIS WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING IN THIS AREA
DURING WEEK-2 EVEN THOUGH DROUGHT HAS BEEN ENTRENCHED FOR THE PAST FEW MONTHS
IN MANY PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
MUCH OF THE SAME AREA AT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION ALSO MAY SEE BRIEF PERIODS
OF HIGH WINDS DURING THE FIRST TWO DAYS OF THE PERIOD. THE PETS FOR HIGH WINDS
ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE, BUT THE PROBABILITIES FOR WIND GUSTS OVER 39 MPH APPROACH
40 PERCENT IN THE ECENS AND TOP 50 PERCENT IN THE CMCE EARLY WEEK-2 MOSTLY FROM
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SAT-SUN APR 11-12. IN
ADDITION, THE ECMWF SHOWS SCATTERED AREAS WITH WIND GUSTS APPROACHING OR
EXCEEDING TROPICAL STORM FORCE AT TIMES, ALTHOUGH THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF
SUCH CONDITIONS HAS NOT BEEN CONSISTENT RUN-TO-RUN. ALSO CONSIDERING THE
SYNOPTIC SET-UP FEATURING HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE REACHING INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND
LOWER PRESSURES OVER THE PLAINS, THERE IS SUFFICIENT SUPPORT FOR A SLIGHT HIGH
WIND RISK OVER A BROAD STRETCH COVERING THE CENTRAL AND PARTS OF THE INTERIOR
EASTERN CONUS DURING THE FIRST TWO DAYS OF WEEK-2. IN GENERAL, THE TOOLS ARE
NOT AS SUPPORTIVE OF THE HIGH WIND POTENTIAL AS THEY WERE YESTERDAY.
NO HAZARDS ARE ISSUED OVER ALASKA, BUT FLOODING CAN OCCUR WITH THIS TIME OF
YEAR WITH LITTLE OR NO NOTICE DURING RIVER ICE BREAKUP SEASON. CHECK WITH THE
ALASKA PACIFIC RIVER FORECAST CENTER FOR THE LATEST CONDITIONS OR ADVISORIES.
ACROSS HAWAII, KONA LOW ACTIVITY BROUGHT HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING DURING
MID-MARCH, AND STRONG TRADE WINDS HAVE HELPED KEEP PRECIPITATION TOTALS ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE PAST FEW WEEKS. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO
THE NORTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN EARLY WEEK-2, WHICH MAY TRIGGER ADDITIONAL HEAVY
PRECIPITATION. PETS SHOW INCREASED CHANCES (20 TO 40 PERCENT) FOR 3-DAY AMOUNTS
EXCEEDING THE 85TH PERCENTILE EARLY WEEK-2, WITH DECLINING CHANCES FOR HEAVY
PRECIPITATION THEREAFTER. ANY HEAVY PRECIPITATION DURING WEEK-2 WILL BE FALLING
ON SATURATED GROUND, POTENTIALLY TRIGGERING ADDITIONAL LOCALIZED FLOODING.
FORECASTER: RICH TINKER
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