318
FXUS21 KWNC 061849
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT APRIL 06 2026
SYNOPSIS: MODEL GUIDANCE FAVORS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE GREAT
PLAINS AND ACTIVE WEATHER LATE IN WEEK-1 AND EXTENDING INTO EARLY WEEK-2,
INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND HIGH WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE GREAT PLAINS, GREAT LAKES, AND THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS.
HAZARDS
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS, THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS, AND GREAT LAKES, TUE-WED, APR 14-15.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS, THE
MISSISSIPPI, TENNESSEE, AND OHIO VALLEYS, AND GREAT LAKES, TUE-WED, APR 14-15.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR THURSDAY APRIL 09 - MONDAY APRIL 13:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR TUESDAY APRIL 14 - MONDAY APRIL 20: MODEL SOLUTIONS FROM THE 0Z ECENS AND
GEFS CONTINUE TO FAVOR A ROUND OF VIGOROUS LEE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS LATE IN WEEK-1, AND DEPICT HEAVY PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A
SURFACE LOW, INITIALLY AFFECTING THE GREAT PLAINS AND MOVING INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THE OUTSET OF WEEK-2. UNCALIBRATED PROBABILITIES FROM THE
ECENS INDICATE A BROAD AREA CENTERED ON THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI WITH AT LEAST A
20% CHANCE OF 3-DAY PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATION EXCEEDING 1 INCH, AND WHILE THE
GEFS IS LESS BULLISH, IT ALSO EXCEEDS THE ABOVE THRESHOLD FOR PORTIONS OF THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS. THE PROBABILISTIC EXTREMES TOOLS (PETS)
SHOW A SIMILAR PICTURE, WITH A BULLISH ECENS BROAD-BRUSHING AT LEAST A 20%
CHANCE OF 3-DAY PRECIPITATION EXCEEDING THE 85TH CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE.
GIVEN ALL THIS, A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS POSTED FOR TUE-WED, APR
14-15 FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS, THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO
VALLEYS, AND GREAT LAKES. MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO DEPICT TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENTS AND ENSEMBLE MEAN WIND SPEEDS EXCEEDING 20MPH AHEAD OF THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM EARLY IN WEEK-2, AFTER WHICH THE LOW PRESSURE BECOMES MORE
DIFFUSE AND GRADIENTS RELAX. A SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS IS POSTED FOR MUCH OF
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS, THE MISSISSIPPI, TENNESSEE, AND OHIO VALLEYS,
AND GREAT LAKES FOR TUE-WED, APR 14-15, DURING WHICH THE WIND SIGNAL AND MODEL
AGREEMENT IS STRONGEST.
ALTHOUGH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION REMAINS EARLY IN WEEK-2, THE
POTENTIAL FOR LONG-TERM FLOODING IS DIMINISHED DUE TO THE EXPECTED FAST
MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM, THEREFORE THE FLOODING POSSIBLE HAZARD OVER THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY HAS BEEN REMOVED. HOWEVER, THE THREAT OF LOCALIZED STREAM
AND FLASH FLOODING REMAINS, AND CAUTION SHOULD ALWAYS BE EXERCISED WITH
FLOODWATERS.
ABUNDANT SNOW ACCUMULATION FROM THE WINTER REMAINS OVER PORTIONS OF THE DAKOTAS
AND THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN, AND PREDICTED ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR MUCH OF THE LOWER 48 DURING WEEK-2, MELT-OFF OF THIS SNOWPACK MAY RISE
RIVER LEVELS IN THE WATERSHEDS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI AND THE RED RIVER OF
THE NORTH. NO HAZARD IS ISSUED AT THIS TIME BUT THE SITUATION WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED IN THE COMING DAYS.
NO HAZARDS ARE ISSUED OVER ALASKA, BUT FLOODING CAN OCCUR THIS TIME OF YEAR
WITH LITTLE OR NO NOTICE DURING RIVER ICE BREAKUP SEASON. CHECK WITH THE ALASKA
PACIFIC RIVER FORECAST CENTER FOR THE LATEST CONDITIONS OR ADVISORIES.
OVER HAWAII, PERSISTENT KONA LOW ACTIVITY HAS LED TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FLOODING THROUGHOUT THE STATE. ENSEMBLES DO NOT SHOW MUCH CHANGE IN THE
MID-LEVEL PATTERN WITH TROUGHING FAVORED TO PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC.
PETS CONTINUE TO INDICATE ELEVATED CHANCES FOR 3-DAY AMOUNTS EXCEEDING THE 85TH
PERCENTILE, WITH 3-DAY TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS EXCEEDING AN INCH FOR SOME LOCATIONS
EARLY IN WEEK-2, AFTER WHICH THE SIGNAL DIMINISHES SOMEWHAT. THE CONTINUATION
OF ABOVE-NORMAL AND POTENTIALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO WORSEN ALREADY
SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS AND MAY TRIGGER ADDITIONAL LOCALIZED FLOODING IN
THE STATE.
FORECASTER: DANNY BARANDIARAN
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