168
FXUS21 KWNC 071815
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT APRIL 07 2026
SYNOPSIS: MODEL GUIDANCE FAVORS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE GREAT
PLAINS AND ACTIVE WEATHER LATE IN WEEK-1 AND EXTENDING INTO EARLY WEEK-2,
INCREASING THE POTENTIAL OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF THE GREAT
PLAINS, AND THE MISSISSIPPI, TENNESSEE, AND OHIO VALLEYS.
HAZARDS
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS, AND THE MISSISSIPPI, TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS, WED-FRI, APR 15-17.
FLOODING POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF WISCONSIN AND MICHIGAN.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR FRIDAY APRIL 10 - TUESDAY APRIL 14:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR WEDNESDAY APRIL 15 - TUESDAY APRIL 21: MODEL SOLUTIONS FROM THE 0Z ECENS
AND GEFS CONTINUE TO FAVOR A ROUND OF VIGOROUS LEE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS LATE IN WEEK-1, AND DEPICT HEAVY PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING AHEAD
OF A SURFACE LOW, INITIALLY AFFECTING THE GREAT PLAINS AND MOVING INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THE OUTSET OF WEEK-2. UNCALIBRATED PROBABILITIES FROM THE
ECENS INDICATE A BROAD AREA CENTERED ON THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI WITH AT LEAST A
20% CHANCE OF 3-DAY PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATION EXCEEDING 1 INCH, AND WHILE THE
GEFS IS LESS BULLISH, IT ALSO EXCEEDS THE ABOVE THRESHOLD FOR PORTIONS OF THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS. THE PROBABILISTIC EXTREMES TOOLS (PETS)
SHOW A SIMILAR PICTURE, WITH A BULLISH ECENS BROAD-BRUSHING AT LEAST A 20%
CHANCE OF 3-DAY PRECIPITATION EXCEEDING THE 85TH CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE.
GIVEN ALL THIS, A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS POSTED FOR APR 15-17
FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS, AND THE MISSISSIPPI, TENNESSEE
AND OHIO VALLEYS. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE LESS BULLISH WITH REGARD TO TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND ENHANCED WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THE SYSTEM
BEGINS TO GET ELONGATED, SO THE HIGH WIND HAZARD FROM YESTERDAY'S OUTLOOK HAS
BEEN DISCONTINUED. ENSEMBLE MEAN WIND SPEEDS APPROACH 20MPH OVER PORTIONS OF
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, BUT THIS IS NOT UNUSUAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR SO NO ASSOCIATED HAZARD IS ISSUED. NONETHELESS, GIVEN THE
EXTREMELY DRY WINTER EXPERIENCED OVER THE WEST SUCH WINDS PRESENT A POTENTIAL
WILDFIRE HAZARD.
ABUNDANT SNOWPACK OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN AND THE UPPER PENINSULA IS
BEGINNING TO MELT. ADDITIONALLY, OVER THE LAST WEEK THE GREAT LAKES REGION HAS
REPORTED PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATIONS EXCEEDING 2 INCHES IN MOST LOCATIONS. THIS
HAS SATURATED SOILS AND ALREADY LEAD TO WIDESPREAD RIVER FLOODING, THUS ANY
ADDITIONAL WATER IN THE RIVER SYSTEMS WILL NOT BE EASILY ACCOMMODATED. MUCH OF
THE GREAT LAKES IS FAVORED FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES,
ACCELERATING SNOW MELT AND EXACERBATING THE FLOODING POTENTIAL. A FLOODING
POSSIBLE HAZARD IS POSTED FOR MOST OF MICHIGAN AND WISCONSIN, WHERE THE
CONFLUENCE OF THESE PARAMETERS IS GREATEST. HOWEVER, THE THREAT OF FLOODING IS
NOT LIMITED TO THESE AREAS ALONE, AS LINGERING SNOW REMAINS ON THE GROUND OVER
PORTIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS AS WELL. NO HAZARD IS ISSUED FOR THE RED RIVER OF
THE NORTH OR OTHER WATERCOURSES IN THE REGION, ALTHOUGH RIVER RISES ARE LIKELY
AS SNOW MELTS OFF AND LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY OCCUR.
NO HAZARDS ARE ISSUED OVER ALASKA, BUT FLOODING CAN OCCUR THIS TIME OF YEAR
WITH LITTLE OR NO NOTICE DURING RIVER ICE BREAKUP SEASON. CHECK WITH THE ALASKA
PACIFIC RIVER FORECAST CENTER FOR THE LATEST CONDITIONS OR ADVISORIES.
FORECASTER: DANNY BARANDIARAN
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