032
FXUS21 KWNC 081815
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT APRIL 08 2026
SYNOPSIS: MODEL GUIDANCE FAVORS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE GREAT
PLAINS AND ACTIVE WEATHER EARLY IN WEEK-2, INCREASING THE POTENTIAL OF HEAVY
PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF THE GREAT PLAINS, AND THE MISSISSIPPI, TENNESSEE,
AND OHIO VALLEYS, AS WELL AS HIGH WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS).
HAZARDS
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS, AND THE MISSISSIPPI, TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS, THU-SAT, APR 16-18.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE GREAT PLAINS, ROCKY MOUNTAINS, GREAT
BASIN, AND DESERT SOUTHWEST, THU-MON, APR 16-20.
FLOODING POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF WISCONSIN AND MICHIGAN.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR SATURDAY APRIL 11 - WEDNESDAY APRIL 15:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR THURSDAY APRIL 16 - WEDNESDAY APRIL 22: TODAY’S MODEL SOLUTIONS FROM THE 0Z
ECENS AND GEFS DEPICT A SECOND ROUND OF LEE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AT THE OUTSET OF WEEK-2 FOLLOWING AN INITIAL SYSTEM IN WEEK-1, WITH
HEAVY PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW. THE WEEK-1 SYSTEM IS
FAVORED TO MOVE QUICKLY, ACCOMPANIED BY A SHORTWAVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH, WHILE
THE SYSTEM TO FORM IN WEEK-2 WILL BE SLOWER TO MOVE EASTWARD WITH
RIDGE-BUILDING FAVORED OVER THE SOUTHEAST. UNCALIBRATED PROBABILITIES FROM THE
ECENS INDICATE A BROAD AREA CENTERED ON THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI WITH AT LEAST A
40% CHANCE OF 3-DAY PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATION EXCEEDING 1 INCH AND EVEN SOME
20% CHANCES OF EXCEEDING 2 INCHES, AND WHILE THE GEFS IS LESS BULLISH, IT ALSO
EXCEEDS THE 1 INCH THRESHOLD FOR PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO
VALLEYS. THE PROBABILISTIC EXTREMES TOOLS (PETS) SHOW A SIMILAR PICTURE, WITH A
BULLISH ECENS BROAD-BRUSHING AT LEAST A 20% CHANCE OF 3-DAY PRECIPITATION
EXCEEDING THE 85TH CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE, WHILE THE GEFS ONLY HIGHLIGHTS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AT THE ABOVE THRESHOLD. MODEL SPREAD HAS BEEN HIGH
REGARDING PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS, BUT REASONABLY
CONSISTENT AT LEAST IN TERMS OF RELATIVE SIGNAL, AND SEASONALITY AND PATTERN
RECOGNITION FURTHER SUPPORT LEANING TOWARDS THE BULLISH SCENARIO. THEREFORE A
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS CONTINUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS, AND THE MISSISSIPPI, TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS, VALID APR
16-20. MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE UPPED THEIR SIGNAL WITH REGARD TO ENHANCED WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. ENSEMBLE MEAN WIND SPEEDS APPROACH OR EXCEED 20MPH
OVER PORTIONS OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND SPREADING EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS THROUGHOUT WEEK-2, ALTHOUGH THE SIGNAL BEGINS TO DROP OFF TOWARDS THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THEREFORE A SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS IS POSTED FOR
MUCH OF THE GREAT PLAINS, ROCKY MOUNTAINS, GREAT BASIN, AND DESERT SOUTHWEST,
VALID APR 16-20. GIVEN THE EXTREMELY DRY WINTER EXPERIENCED OVER THE WEST SUCH
WINDS PRESENT A POTENTIAL WILDFIRE HAZARD.
ABUNDANT SNOWPACK OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN AND THE UPPER PENINSULA IS
BEGINNING TO MELT. ADDITIONALLY, OVER THE LAST WEEK THE GREAT LAKES REGION HAS
REPORTED PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATIONS EXCEEDING 2 INCHES IN MOST LOCATIONS. THIS
HAS SATURATED SOILS AND ALREADY LEAD TO WIDESPREAD RIVER FLOODING, THUS ANY
ADDITIONAL WATER IN THE RIVER SYSTEMS WILL NOT BE EASILY ACCOMMODATED. MUCH OF
THE GREAT LAKES IS FAVORED FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES,
ACCELERATING SNOW MELT AND EXACERBATING THE FLOODING POTENTIAL. A FLOODING
POSSIBLE HAZARD IS POSTED FOR MOST OF MICHIGAN AND WISCONSIN, WHERE THE
CONFLUENCE OF THESE PARAMETERS IS GREATEST. HOWEVER, THE THREAT OF FLOODING IS
NOT LIMITED TO THESE AREAS ALONE, AS LINGERING SNOW REMAINS ON THE GROUND OVER
PORTIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS AS WELL. NO HAZARD IS ISSUED FOR THE RED RIVER OF
THE NORTH OR OTHER WATERCOURSES IN THE REGION, ALTHOUGH RIVER RISES ARE LIKELY
AS SNOW MELTS OFF AND LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY OCCUR.
NO HAZARDS ARE ISSUED OVER ALASKA, BUT FLOODING CAN OCCUR THIS TIME OF YEAR
WITH LITTLE OR NO NOTICE DURING RIVER ICE BREAKUP SEASON. CHECK WITH THE ALASKA
PACIFIC RIVER FORECAST CENTER FOR THE LATEST CONDITIONS OR ADVISORIES.
FORECASTER: DANNY BARANDIARAN
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