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FXUS21 KWNC 091851
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT APRIL 09 2026
SYNOPSIS: MULTIPLE MODELS INDICATE STRONGER MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) COMPARED TO YESTERDAY FROM THE END OF WEEK-1
INTO THE BEGINNING OF WEEK-2. THIS PATTERN SUPPORTS INCREASED CHANCES OF MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS CONTINUING
FROM THE END OF WEEK-1 INTO THE START OF WEEK-2. NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THESE AREAS, WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR EXCEEDING 90 DEG
F, WHICH MAY BE THE FIRST TIME OF THE SEASON FOR SOME LOCATIONS. ANTECEDENT AND
ANTICIPATED DRY CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH WARM TEMPERATURES INCREASES THE
LIKELIHOOD FOR RAPID ONSET DROUGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST. ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION
EARLY IN WEEK-2, INCREASING THE POTENTIAL OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS
OF THE GREAT PLAINS, AND THE MISSISSIPPI, TENNESSEE, AND OHIO VALLEYS.
MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS MAY SUPPORT EPISODES OF HIGH WIND
SPEEDS ACROSS THE WEST.
HAZARDS
MODERATE RISK OF MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS, TENNESSEE VALLEY, SOUTHEAST, AND MID-ATLANTIC, FRI-SAT, APR 17-18.
SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, FRI-SAT, APR 17-18.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS, AND THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI, TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS,
FRI-SAT, APR 17-18.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE GREAT PLAINS, ROCKY MOUNTAINS, GREAT
BASIN, AND DESERT SOUTHWEST, FRI-TUE, APR 17-21.
POSSIBLE FLOODING FOR MUCH OF WISCONSIN AND MICHIGAN.
RAPID ONSET DROUGHT RISK ACROSS PARTS OF MISSISSIPPI, ALABAMA, GEORGIA, AND
SOUTH CAROLINA
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR SUNDAY APRIL 12 - THURSDAY APRIL 16:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR FRIDAY APRIL 17 - THURSDAY APRIL 23: MULTIPLE MODEL ENSEMBLES INDICATE
STRONGER RIDGING EXTENDING FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN, CENTRAL, AND
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY FROM THE END OF WEEK-1 INTO WEEK-2.
THIS TRANSLATES TO MODEL GUIDANCE AND ASSOCIATED TOOLS INCREASING CHANCES FOR
ANOMALOUS WARMTH ACROSS MANY OF THESE AREAS. PEAK TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED
MID TO LATE WEEK-1 AND EXTENDING INTO THE BEGINNING OF WEEK-2. A MODERATE RISK
OF MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS DESIGNATED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS, TENNESSEE VALLEY, SOUTHEAST, AND MID-ATLANTIC, APR 17-18. THERE
IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE PROBABILISTIC EXTREMES TOOLS (PETS) INDICATING THIS
ANOMALOUS WARMTH SIGNAL. THE ECENS (GEFS) PET SHOWS AT LEAST A 60% (40%) CHANCE
ACROSS THESE REGIONS OF TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING THE 90TH PERCENTILE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY, WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR EXCEEDING 90 DEG F. THE NATIONAL
BLEND OF MODELS SHOWS SOME OF THESE RISK AREAS NEARING RECORD TEMPERATURES FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. A BROADER AREA OF SLIGHT RISK IS HIGHLIGHTED ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOR THE SAME PERIOD.
AFOREMENTIONED WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS COMBINED WITH
ANTECEDENT AND ANTICIPATED DRY CONDITIONS INCREASES THE LIKELIHOOD OF RAPID
ONSET DROUGHT (ROD) ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION. A RISK OF ROD IS POSTED FOR
PARTS OF MISSISSIPPI, ALABAMA, GEORGIA, AND SOUTH CAROLINA. ADDITIONALLY THESE
CONDITIONS MAY ALSO BE CONDUCIVE TO ENHANCED WILDFIRE RISK ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS, WHERE THERE ARE CURRENTLY ACTIVE FIRES AND THE NATIONAL
INTERAGENCY FIRE CENTER SHOWS A MODERATE RISK OF WILDFIRES ACROSS THIS REGION
AT THE END OF WEEK-1.
MULTIPLE MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO DEPICT LEE CYCLOGENESIS AHEAD OF MID-LEVEL
TROUGHING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. THERE IS
GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GEFS AND ECENS PETS INDICATING AT LEAST A 20% CHANCE
OF 3-DAY ACCUMULATED PRECIPITATION AT THE BEGINNING OF WEEK-2 EXCEEDING THE
85TH PERCENTILE COMPARED TO NORMAL AND ONE INCH. UNCALIBRATED GUIDANCE
INDICATES THE TIMING TO BE FOCUSED ON APR 17 AND 18, THUS A SLIGHT RISK OF
HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS POSTED FOR APR 17-18. CURRENT SOIL CONDITIONS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED TO FAVOR WIDESPREAD FLOODING IN THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION RISK AREA,
ALTHOUGH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITH THE POTENTIAL OF
THUNDERSTORMS.
MID-LEVEL TROUGHING IS ANTICIPATED TO TRACK ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS,
SUPPORTING A SERIES OF SURFACE LOWS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION. THESE LOWS
COMBINED WITH ADJACENT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS RESULTS
IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS SUPPORTS THE
CONTINUED SLIGHT RISK FOR HIGH WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE GREAT PLAINS, ROCKY
MOUNTAINS, GREAT BASIN, AND DESERT SOUTHWEST, APR 17-21. GIVEN THE EXTREMELY
DRY WINTER EXPERIENCED OVER THE WEST SUCH WINDS PRESENT A POTENTIAL WILDFIRE
HAZARD.
ABUNDANT SNOWPACK OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN AND THE UPPER PENINSULA IS
BEGINNING TO MELT. ADDITIONALLY, OVER THE LAST WEEK THE GREAT LAKES REGION HAS
REPORTED PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATIONS EXCEEDING 2 INCHES IN MOST LOCATIONS. THIS
HAS SATURATED SOILS AND ALREADY LEAD TO WIDESPREAD RIVER FLOODING, THUS ANY
ADDITIONAL WATER IN THE RIVER SYSTEMS WILL NOT BE EASILY ACCOMMODATED. MUCH OF
THE GREAT LAKES IS FAVORED FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES,
ACCELERATING SNOW MELT AND EXACERBATING THE FLOODING POTENTIAL. A FLOODING
POSSIBLE HAZARD IS POSTED FOR MOST OF MICHIGAN AND WISCONSIN, WHERE THE
CONFLUENCE OF THESE PARAMETERS IS GREATEST. HOWEVER, THE THREAT OF FLOODING IS
NOT LIMITED TO THESE AREAS ALONE, AS LINGERING SNOW REMAINS ON THE GROUND OVER
PORTIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS AS WELL. NO HAZARD IS ISSUED FOR THE RED RIVER OF
THE NORTH OR OTHER WATERCOURSES IN THE REGION, ALTHOUGH RIVER RISES ARE LIKELY
AS SNOW MELTS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY OCCUR.
NO HAZARDS ARE ISSUED OVER ALASKA, BUT FLOODING CAN OCCUR THIS TIME OF YEAR
WITH LITTLE OR NO NOTICE DURING RIVER ICE BREAKUP SEASON. CHECK WITH THE ALASKA
PACIFIC RIVER FORECAST CENTER (HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/APRFC/BREAKUPMAP) FOR
THE LATEST CONDITIONS OR ADVISORIES.
MULTIPLE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE POSSIBLE KONA LOWS FORMING NORTHWEST OF
HAWAII MOST LIKELY TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF WEEK-2. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION
IS FAVORED FOR THE STATE.
FORECASTER: MELISSA OU
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