042
FXUS21 KWNC 101745
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT APRIL 10 2026
SYNOPSIS: MULTIPLE MODELS INDICATE STRONGER MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) COMPARED TO YESTERDAY FROM THE END OF WEEK-1
INTO AND THROUGH MUCH OF WEEK-2. THIS PATTERN SUPPORTS INCREASED CHANCES OF
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
CONTINUING FROM THE END OF WEEK-1 INTO THE START OF WEEK-2. HIGH AND MODERATE
RISKS OF MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE DESIGNATED FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN
CONUS AT THE BEGINNING OF WEEK-2. NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE IN
SOME OF THESE AREAS, WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR EXCEEDING 90 DEG F, WHICH MAY BE
THE FIRST TIME OF THE SEASON FOR SOME LOCATIONS. ANTECEDENT AND ANTICIPATED DRY
CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH WARM TEMPERATURES INCREASES THE LIKELIHOOD FOR RAPID
ONSET DROUGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST. A SERIES OF SURFACE LOWS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO FORM OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS, INCREASING THE POTENTIAL OF
EPISODIC HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL
CONUS. MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS MAY SUPPORT EPISODES OF
HIGH WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE WEST.
HAZARDS
HIGH RISK OF MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS, TENNESSEE VALLEY, SOUTHEAST, AND MID-ATLANTIC,SAT-SUN, APR 18-19.
MODERATE RISK OF MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS, TENNESSEE VALLEY, SOUTHEAST, AND MID-ATLANTIC, SAT-MON, APR 18-20.
SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, SAT-WED, APR 18-22.
SLIGHT RISK OF EPISODIC HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES
REGION, SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS, AND THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI,
TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS, SAT-WED, APR 18-22.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE GREAT PLAINS, ROCKY MOUNTAINS, GREAT
BASIN, AND DESERT SOUTHWEST, SAT-WED, APR 18-22.
POSSIBLE FLOODING FOR MUCH OF WISCONSIN AND MICHIGAN.
RAPID ONSET DROUGHT RISK ACROSS PARTS OF MISSISSIPPI, ALABAMA, GEORGIA, AND
SOUTH CAROLINA
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR MONDAY APRIL 13 - FRIDAY APRIL 17:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR SATURDAY APRIL 18 - FRIDAY APRIL 24: MULTIPLE MODEL ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO
TREND TOWARDS STRONGER RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY
FROM THE END OF WEEK-1 INTO MUCH OF WEEK-2. THIS TRANSLATES TO MODEL GUIDANCE
AND ASSOCIATED TOOLS INCREASING CHANCES FOR ANOMALOUS WARMTH ACROSS MANY OF
THESE AREAS. MULTIPLE MODEL ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A SOUTHWESTWARD SHIFT OF THE
GREATEST POSITIVE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC DURING THE END OF
WEEK-1 TO SOUTHEASTERN CONUS INCLUDING THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY WEEK-2.
GIVEN INCREASED ANOMALOUS WARM TEMPERATURE SIGNALS, A HIGH RISK IS NOW
DESIGNATED FOR SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS, TENNESSEE VALLEY, SOUTHEAST, AND
MID-ATLANTIC, APR 18-19. THE ECENS (GEFS) PROBABILISTIC EXTREMES TOOLS (PET)
SHOWS AT LEAST A 70% (50%) CHANCE OF MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL 85TH PERCENTILE. A MODERATE RISK IS DESIGNATED FOR A GREATER
EXPANSE OF THESE REGIONS FOR APR 18-20, WHERE THE ECENS (GEFS) INDICATES AT
LEAST A 60% OF EXCEEDING THIS THRESHOLD. SLIGHT RISK IS HIGHLIGHTED ACROSS
PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, APR 18-22, WHERE
AT LEAST A 20% CHANCE OF THE 85TH PERCENTILE BEING EXCEEDED. THE NATIONAL BLEND
OF MODELS SHOWS SOME OF THESE RISK AREAS NEARING RECORD TEMPERATURES FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR, NEAR OR EXCEEDING 90 DEG F, WHICH MAY BE THE FIRST TIME OF THE
SEASON FOR SOME LOCATIONS.
AFOREMENTIONED WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS COMBINED WITH
ANTECEDENT AND ANTICIPATED DRY CONDITIONS INCREASES THE LIKELIHOOD OF RAPID
ONSET DROUGHT (ROD) ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION. A RISK OF ROD IS POSTED FOR
PARTS OF MISSISSIPPI, ALABAMA, GEORGIA, AND SOUTH CAROLINA. ADDITIONALLY THESE
CONDITIONS MAY ALSO BE CONDUCIVE TO ENHANCED WILDFIRE RISK ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS, WHERE THERE ARE CURRENTLY ACTIVE FIRES AND THE NATIONAL
INTERAGENCY FIRE CENTER SHOWS A MODERATE RISK OF WILDFIRES ACROSS THIS REGION
AT THE END OF WEEK-1.
MULTIPLE MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO DEPICT LEE CYCLOGENESIS AHEAD OF MID-LEVEL
TROUGHING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. A BROAD AREA
IS HIGHLIGHTED WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF EPISODIC HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION, SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS, AND THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI, TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS, APR 18-22. THIS AREA IS
DESIGNATED FOR RISK BASED ON WHERE AND WHEN THERE ARE INCREASED PROBABILITIES
FOR ENHANCED PRECIPITATION IN UNCALIBRATED AND CALIBRATED ENSEMBLE MODEL
GUIDANCE. CURRENT SOIL CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO FAVOR WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IN THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION RISK AREA, ALTHOUGH LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITH THE POTENTIAL OF THUNDERSTORMS.
MID-LEVEL TROUGHING IS ANTICIPATED TO TRACK ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS,
SUPPORTING A SERIES OF SURFACE LOWS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION. THESE LOWS
COMBINED WITH ADJACENT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS RESULTS
IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS SUPPORTS THE
CONTINUED SLIGHT RISK FOR HIGH WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE GREAT PLAINS, ROCKY
MOUNTAINS, GREAT BASIN, AND DESERT SOUTHWEST, APR 18-22. GIVEN THE EXTREMELY
DRY WINTER EXPERIENCED OVER THE WEST SUCH WINDS PRESENT A POTENTIAL WILDFIRE
HAZARD.
ABUNDANT SNOWPACK OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN AND THE UPPER PENINSULA IS
BEGINNING TO MELT. ADDITIONALLY, OVER THE LAST WEEK THE GREAT LAKES REGION HAS
REPORTED PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATIONS EXCEEDING 2 INCHES IN MOST LOCATIONS. THIS
HAS SATURATED SOILS AND ALREADY LEAD TO WIDESPREAD RIVER FLOODING, THUS ANY
ADDITIONAL WATER IN THE RIVER SYSTEMS WILL NOT BE EASILY ACCOMMODATED. MUCH OF
THE GREAT LAKES IS FAVORED FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES,
ACCELERATING SNOW MELT AND EXACERBATING THE FLOODING POTENTIAL. A FLOODING
POSSIBLE HAZARD IS POSTED FOR MOST OF MICHIGAN AND WISCONSIN, WHERE THE
CONFLUENCE OF THESE PARAMETERS IS GREATEST. HOWEVER, THE THREAT OF FLOODING IS
NOT LIMITED TO THESE AREAS ALONE, AS LINGERING SNOW REMAINS ON THE GROUND OVER
PORTIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS AS WELL. NO HAZARD IS ISSUED FOR THE RED RIVER OF
THE NORTH OR OTHER WATERCOURSES IN THE REGION, ALTHOUGH RIVER RISES ARE LIKELY
AS SNOW MELTS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY OCCUR.
NO HAZARDS ARE ISSUED OVER ALASKA, BUT FLOODING CAN OCCUR THIS TIME OF YEAR
WITH LITTLE OR NO NOTICE DURING RIVER ICE BREAKUP SEASON. CHECK WITH THE ALASKA
PACIFIC RIVER FORECAST CENTER (HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/APRFC/BREAKUPMAP) FOR
THE LATEST CONDITIONS OR ADVISORIES.
MULTIPLE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE POSSIBLE KONA LOWS FORMING NORTHWEST OF
HAWAII MOST LIKELY TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF WEEK-2. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION
CONTINUES TO BE FAVORED FOR THE STATE.
FORECASTER: MELISSA OU
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