357
FXUS21 KWNC 111957
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT APRIL 11 2026
SYNOPSIS: MULTIPLE MODELS SHOW QUICK MOVING MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TRACKING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NORTHEAST AT THE BEGINNING OF WEEK-2, WITH MID-LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE POTENTIALLY REBUILDING ACROSS THE EAST INTO MIDDLE TO LATE
WEEK-2. THIS PATTERN RESULTS IN GREATER UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXTENT OF THE
POTENTIAL FOR MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM THE END OF WEEK-1 INTO
WEEK-2. THE PEAK TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO DECREASE BY WEEK-2, BUT
TEMPERATURES MAY STILL APPROACH OR EXCEED THE 90S DEG F DURING THE PERIOD.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS LIKELY TO BE RELATIVELY LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AS WELL,
REDUCING CHANCES OF EXCESSIVE HEAT, ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES MAY STILL BE
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THEREFORE A SLIGHT RISK FOR MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE SOUTHEAST AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, APR 19-23.
THE PATTERN IS ALSO LESS FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EAST-CENTRAL CONUS AT THE BEGINNING TO MIDDLE OF THE PERIOD, THUS THE
ASSOCIATED HAZARD IS DISCONTINUED. SURFACE LOWS ACROSS THE WEST SUPPORT
INCREASED CHANCES FOR HIGH WINDS FOR THE BEGINNING OF WEEK-2.
HAZARDS
SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
U.S. AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, SUN, APR 19-23.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE GREAT PLAINS, ROCKY MOUNTAINS, GREAT
BASIN, DESERT SOUTHWEST, AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, SUN-TUE, APR 19-21.
POSSIBLE FLOODING FOR MUCH OF WISCONSIN AND MICHIGAN.
RAPID ONSET DROUGHT RISK ACROSS PARTS OF MISSISSIPPI, ALABAMA, GEORGIA, AND
SOUTH CAROLINA.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR TUESDAY APRIL 14 - SATURDAY APRIL 18:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR SUNDAY APRIL 19 - SATURDAY APRIL 25: THERE ARE MORE DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODEL GUIDANCE REGARDING THE MID-LEVEL PATTERN COMPARED TO YESTERDAY FOR
WEEK-2. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE GEFS AND ECENS INDICATING A PROGRESSIVE
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST AT
THE BEGINNING OF WEEK-2, BUT SOME DISCREPANCY REGARDING THE SPECIFICS OF THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS AT THE START
OF WEEK-2. THE ECENS ENSEMBLE MEAN BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE ACROSS THIS REGION ON
DAY 9 (APR 20) WITH RIDGING REMAINING WESTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS AND
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, BUT REBUILDS THE RIDGING BY DAY 10, WHEREAS THE GEFS
MAINTAINS A MORE PERSISTENT RIDGE. REGARDLESS OF THE EVOLUTION DIFFERENCES,
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO STILL BE CONSIDERED MUCH ABOVE NORMAL FOR PARTS
OF THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE CONUS FOR AT LEAST THE BEGINNING TO MIDDLE
OF WEEK-2. THEREFORE A SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS
MAINTAINED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, APR
19-23. THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS (NBM) ONLY INDICATES THE AREA NEAR TAMPA AS
POSSIBLY NEARING RECORD TEMPERATURES ON APR 19.
ANOMALOUS WARMTH IS STILL FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE CONUS DURING WEEK-2, WITH THE
GREATEST LIKELIHOOD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE CONUS. THIS WARMTH
COMBINED WITH ANTECEDENT AND ANTICIPATED DRY CONDITIONS INCREASES THE
LIKELIHOOD OF RAPID ONSET DROUGHT (ROD) ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION. A RISK OF
ROD IS POSTED FOR PARTS OF MISSISSIPPI, ALABAMA, GEORGIA, AND SOUTH CAROLINA.
ADDITIONALLY THESE CONDITIONS MAY ALSO BE CONDUCIVE TO ENHANCED WILDFIRE RISK
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS, WHERE THERE ARE CURRENTLY ACTIVE FIRES AND THE
NATIONAL INTERAGENCY FIRE CENTER SHOWS A MODERATE RISK OF WILDFIRES ACROSS THIS
REGION AT THE END OF WEEK-1.
GIVEN THE CHANGE IN THE MID-LEVEL PATTERN, CHANCES FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION ARE
REDUCED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL CONUS AT THE BEGINNING AND MIDDLE
OF WEEK-2. THERE IS HOWEVER THE POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED RAINFALL TOWARDS THE END
OF WEEK-2 AS MID-LEVEL TROUGHING SHIFTS FROM OFF THE WEST COAST AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD TO THE INTERIOR WEST BY AROUND DAY 12 (APR 23), WHICH
WOULD SUPPORT SURFACE LOW FORMATION AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CONUS AND POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED ENHANCED RAINFALL ACROSS THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL CONUS. AT THIS TIME NO PRECIPITATION HAZARDS ARE
DESIGNATED BUT WILL BE MONITORED IN THE UPCOMING DAYS.
MID-LEVEL TROUGHING IS ANTICIPATED TO TRACK ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AT THE
BEGINNING OF WEEK-2, SUPPORTING A SERIES OF SURFACE LOWS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
REGION. THESE LOWS COMBINED WITH ADJACENT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS RESULTS IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS.
THIS SUPPORTS THE CONTINUED SLIGHT RISK FOR HIGH WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE GREAT
PLAINS, ROCKY MOUNTAINS, GREAT BASIN, DESERT SOUTHWEST, AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
APR 19-21. GIVEN THE EXTREMELY DRY WINTER EXPERIENCED OVER THE WEST SUCH WINDS
PRESENT A POTENTIAL WILDFIRE HAZARD.
AN ABUNDANT SNOWPACK OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN IS BEGINNING TO MELT.
ADDITIONALLY, OVER THE LAST WEEK THE GREAT LAKES REGION HAS REPORTED
PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATIONS EXCEEDING 2 INCHES IN MOST LOCATIONS. THIS HAS
SATURATED SOILS AND ALREADY LEAD TO WIDESPREAD RIVER FLOODING, THUS ANY
ADDITIONAL WATER IN THE RIVER SYSTEMS WILL NOT BE EASILY ACCOMMODATED. MUCH OF
THE GREAT LAKES IS FAVORED FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION, WITH SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION FAVORED TO HAVE NEAR TO ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXCLUDING THE UPPER PENINSULA, WHICH COULD RESULT IN ACCELERATING SNOW MELT AND
EXACERBATING THE FLOODING POTENTIAL. A FLOODING POSSIBLE HAZARD IS POSTED FOR
MOST OF MICHIGAN AND WISCONSIN, WHERE THE CONFLUENCE OF THESE PARAMETERS IS
GREATEST. HOWEVER, THE THREAT OF FLOODING IS NOT LIMITED TO THESE AREAS ALONE,
AS LINGERING SNOW REMAINS ON THE GROUND OVER PORTIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS AS
WELL. NO HAZARD IS ISSUED FOR THE RED RIVER OF THE NORTH OR OTHER WATERCOURSES
IN THE REGION, ALTHOUGH RIVER RISES ARE LIKELY AS SNOW MELTS AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING MAY OCCUR.
NO HAZARDS ARE ISSUED OVER ALASKA, BUT FLOODING CAN OCCUR THIS TIME OF YEAR
WITH LITTLE OR NO NOTICE DURING RIVER ICE BREAKUP SEASON. THE COLDER
TEMPERATURES IN THE WEEK 2 OUTLOOK INCREASE THE CHANCES OF DELAYED RIVER
BREAKUP IN ALASKA AND INCREASE THE CHANCES OF ICE JAM FLOODING. CHECK WITH THE
ALASKA PACIFIC RIVER FORECAST CENTER (HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/APRFC/BREAKUPMAP)
FOR THE LATEST CONDITIONS OR ADVISORIES.
MULTIPLE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE POSSIBLE KONA LOWS FORMING NORTHWEST OF
HAWAII MOST LIKELY AT THE BEGINNING OF WEEK-2. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION
CONTINUES TO BE FAVORED FOR THE STATE.
FORECASTER: MELISSA OU
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