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FXUS21 KWNC 231749
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT APRIL 23 2026
SYNOPSIS: UNSEASONABLY COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE INTO
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES (CONUS) EARLY, RESULTING IN AN
ELEVATED RISK OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST OR
FREEZE DAMAGE TO EARLY BLOOMS. LATER IN WEEK-2, SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INTO THE
CENTRAL AND INTERIOR EASTERN CONUS COULD TRIGGER HEAVY PRECIPITATION, BUT THERE
IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO POST ANY ADDITIONAL HAZARDS AT THIS TIME.
HAZARDS
SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS EASTWARD THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES, OHIO VALLEY, NORTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC, AND NORTHEAST, FRI-MON, MAY 1-4.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR SUNDAY APRIL 26 - THURSDAY APRIL 30:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR FRIDAY MAY 01 - THURSDAY MAY 07: MEAN 500-HPA SOLUTIONS FROM THE EUROPEAN
ENSEMBLE (ECENS), CANADIAN ENSEMBLE (CMCE), AND GEFS DEPICT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST DURING THE FIRST HALF OF WEEK-2.
IN ITS WAKE, UNSEASONABLY COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE INTO
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS, ACCOMPANIED BY MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES OF -10 TO -20 DEG. F ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES FROM THE
PLAINS THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS AND NORTHEAST, AS DEPICTED BY THE DYNAMICAL
EUROPEAN MODEL (ECMWF). THE ECENS SHOWS AT LEAST A 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR
TEMPERATURES TO DROP BELOW 40 DEG. F AS FAR SOUTH AS SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF
KANSAS AND MISSOURI. GIVEN THE ABSOLUTE TEMPERATURES THAT ARE FORECAST, IT
APPEARS THAT HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO AREAS AT RISK OF A FROST
OR HARD FREEZE THAT HAVE EARLY SPRING BLOOMING DUE TO THE WARM APRIL. ACCORDING
TO THE U.S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZE DAMAGE
TO EARLY-MATURING FRUIT CROPS PRIMARILY IN MICHIGAN AND THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST,
DESPITE FREEZING CONDITIONS NOT BEING TOO UNUSUAL IN EARLY MAY. A SLIGHT RISK
OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS POSTED FOR THESE AREAS, WHICH STRETCH FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS EASTWARD THROUGH PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO,
MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NORTHEAST
REGION. THESE CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO LINGER, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
PLAINS. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE STEADILY EAST WITH TIME,
ALLOWING RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS FAIRLY
QUICKLY, WARMING THINGS UP. WITH TIME, THE WARMING TREND WILL PROGRESS
EASTWARD, ENDING THE RISK OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEAR THE MIDDLE OF
WEEK-2.
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY BREEZY CONDITIONS AS IT PULLS
COLDER AIR SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO REACH HAZARDS THRESHOLDS, BUT LARGE PORTIONS OF THIS REGION ARE ENTRENCHED
IN SOME DEGREE OF DROUGHT. THE COMBINATION OF DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS WHERE THERE IS ANTECEDENT DRYNESS
SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASES THE RISK OF WILDFIRE ACTIVITY, WHICH COULD SPREAD
RAPIDLY. CARE SHOULD BE TAKEN TO MINIMIZE THE CHANCES OF WILDFIRE IGNITION.
LATER IN WEEK-2, MANY TOOLS, INCLUDING THE ECMWF AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE
ENSEMBLES, SHOW INCREASED MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THE WARMTH FROM THE RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL AND INTERIOR EASTERN CONUS.
MEANWHILE, A POSSIBLE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MAY MOVE TOWARD THESE REGIONS
STARTING AROUND THE MIDDLE OF WEEK-2. IF THESE FEATURES DEVELOP AND INTERACT,
PERIODS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION ARE POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL AND INTERIOR EASTERN
CONUS. AT THIS TIME, MOST TOOLS FAVOR SUB-HAZARDOUS PRECIPITATION TOTALS WITH
THIS SYSTEM, AND THERE REMAINS POOR MODEL AGREEMENT REGARDING THE LOCATION AND
TIMING OF HEAVIER AMOUNTS. THIS PRECLUDES POSTING ANY RELATED HAZARDS AT THIS
TIME.
THE CMCE AND GEFS MEANS HAVE SHIFTED TOWARD YESTERDAY'S ECENS SOLUTION SHOWING
A CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW APPROACHING WESTERN ALASKA. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY
TRIGGER SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT AND STORMY WEATHER ALONG THE SOUTHERN
TIER OF THE STATE. AT THIS TIME, CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
HAZARDS THRESHOLDS, BUT THE MID-LEVEL FLOW ORIENTATION IN THE ECENS MEAN HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO TRIGGER STRONG WINDS ALONG MUCH OF COASTAL WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA. NO HAZARD IS POSTED AT THIS TIME GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES
INTRODUCED BY MODEL DIFFERENCES IN INTENSITY, BUT THE SITUATION WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED. THE TYPICAL PEAK OF THE RIVER ICE BREAKUP SEASON IS APPROACHING, AND
ICE JAM FLOODING CAN OCCUR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH LITTLE OR NO NOTICE AS
CONDITIONS ON FROZEN RIVERS CAN CHANGE QUICKLY. CHECK WITH THE ALASKA PACIFIC
RIVER FORECAST CENTER FOR THE LATEST CONDITIONS AND ADVISORIES.
FORECASTER: RICH TINKER
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