747
FXUS21 KWNC 301831
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT APRIL 30 2026
SYNOPSIS: MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BE FAVORED OVER THE EASTERN
CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS), BRINGING ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIR AND GUSTY WINDS TO MUCH
OF THE REGION. COMPARED TO YESTERDAY THERE ARE INCREASED SIGNALS IN MODEL
GUIDANCE AND TOOLS FOR THESE HAZARDS. THEREFORE MODERATE RISKS ARE DESIGNATED
FOR MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND WINDS AT THE BEGINNING OF WEEK-2 FOR
PARTS OF THE EAST. FREEZING AND NEAR FREEZING CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN SOME
AREAS, POTENTIALLY DAMAGING EARLY SPRING BLOOMS. POSSIBLE SURFACE LOW FORMATION
IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS MAY BRING HEAVY RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF THIS REGION
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S AND GUSTY WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST.
HAZARDS
MODERATE RISK OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI, AND OHIO VALLEYS, GREAT LAKES REGION, NORTHEAST, MID-ATLANTIC, AND
APPALACHIANS, FRI-SAT, MAY 8-9.
SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS, MIDWEST, GREAT LAKES REGION, NORTHEAST, MID-ATLANTIC, AND
APPALACHIANS, FRI-SUN, MAY 8-10.
MODERATE RISK OF HIGH WINDS FOR PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY, GREAT LAKES REGION,
APPALACHIANS, AND EAST COAST, FRI-SAT, MAY 8-9.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S., FRI-SUN, MAY 8-10.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, LOWER
MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS, AND SOUTHEASTERN U.S., FRI-SUN, MAY 8-10.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF COAST,
FRI-SUN, MAY 8-10.
SLIGHT RISK OF EXTREME HEAT FOR THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, FRI-THU, MAY 8-14.
SLIGHT RISK OF EXTREME HEAT FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA, FRI-TUE, MAY 8-12.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR SUNDAY MAY 03 - THURSDAY MAY 07:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR FRIDAY MAY 08 - THURSDAY MAY 14: THERE CONTINUES TO BE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
INDICATING AMPLIFIED TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND RIDGING UPSTREAM
ACROSS THE WEST FROM THE END OF WEEK-1 INTO THE BEGINNING OF WEEK-2. THE CENTER
OF THE MID-LEVEL LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO BE CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA BY THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. WITH THIS FEATURE BEING MORE AMPLIFIED AND EXPANSIVE
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY IN THE MODELS AT THE ONSET OF WEEK-2 IN ADDITION TO THE
ORIENTATION OF THIS FEATURE BEING FAVORABLE FOR SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SINKING
SOUTHWARD INTO THE EASTWARD CONUS FROM CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA, THE SIGNALS
FOR COLD HAVE INCREASED. THEREFORE A MODERATE RISK OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IS DESIGNATED FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI, AND OHIO
VALLEYS, GREAT LAKES REGION, NORTHEAST, MID-ATLANTIC, AND APPALACHIANS, MAY
8-9. THE ECENS (GEFS) PROBABILISTIC EXTREMES TOOLS (PETS) SHOW AT LEAST A 40%
(30%) CHANCE OF MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW THE 15TH PERCENTILE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY DROPPING BELOW 38 DEGREES F (FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS) ACROSS THESE AREAS, FURTHER SUPPORTED BY UNCALIBRATED
GUIDANCE. A BROADER AREA OF SLIGHT RISK IS HIGHLIGHTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS, MIDWEST, GREAT LAKES REGION, NORTHEAST,
MID-ATLANTIC, AND APPALACHIANS, MAY 8-10, WHERE THERE IS AT LEAST A 20% CHANCE
OF TEMPERATURES REACHING THESE THRESHOLDS. ANY RESIDUAL COLD WITH FREEZING OR
NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES MAY THREATEN VULNERABLE SPRINGTIME VEGETATION,
PARTICULARLY IN AREAS THAT HAVE EXPERIENCED EARLY GROWTH DUE TO ANTECEDENT
WARMTH DURING APRIL.
A SERIES OF SURFACE LOWS AND TRAILING FRONTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO TRACK ACROSS
THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN CONUS. THESE FEATURES MAY BRING GUSTY
CONDITIONS TO PARTS OF THE EAST. A MODERATE RISK OF HIGH WINDS IS DESIGNATED
FOR PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY, GREAT LAKES REGION, APPALACHIANS, AND EAST COAST,
MAY 8-9, WHERE THE ECENS PET SHOWS AT LEAST A 20% CHANCE OF WIND SPEEDS
EXCEEDING THE 85TH PERCENTILE, WITH ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FROM UNCALIBRATED
GUIDANCE INDICATING ELEVATED CHANCES OF WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 20 MPH (35 MPH
LOCALLY). A BROADER AREA IS HIGHLIGHTED WITH A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS MUCH OF THE
EASTERN CONUS, MAY 8-10. WINDY CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH ANTICIPATED COLD
TEMPERATURES COULD SUPPORT LOWER WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES IN SOME AREAS. WITH
ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FAVORED FOR
FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF GEORGIA AND ENHANCED WINDS ANTICIPATED, THERE
MAY BE INCREASED WILDFIRE RISK ACROSS THESE AREAS WHICH ALREADY ARE
EXPERIENCING ACTIVE WILDFIRES. THE NATIONAL INTERAGENCY FIRE CENTER INDICATES A
MODERATE RISK OF SIGNIFICANT FIRE POTENTIAL AT THE END OF WEEK-1 IN THESE
AREAS. ANY PRECIPITATION OCCURRING IN THE REGION MAY BE BRIEF AND LOCALIZED
WHICH MAY NOT OFFSET THE ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR WILDFIRES.
THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS AND INCREASED CHANCES OF HEAVY
PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS COMPARED
TO YESTERDAY. POSSIBLE SURFACE LOW FORMATION IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS
SHIFTING TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY COMBINED WITH STRONG ONSHORE FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS MAY
BRING ENHANCED RAINFALL TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE EAST. A SLIGHT RISK OF
HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS POSTED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, LOWER
MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS, AND SOUTHEASTERN U.S., MAY 8-10. THERE IS
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE PETS INDICATING AT LEAST A 20% CHANCE OF 3-DAY
RAINFALL EXCEEDING THE 85TH PERCENTILE AND ONE INCH ACROSS THE RISK AREA.
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS REGION AND ADJACENT AREAS OF
WHERE THIS RISK IS HIGHLIGHTED, WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING.
ADDITIONALLY A SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS IS DESIGNATED FOR THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL GULF COAST, FOR THE SAME PERIOD ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES.
SOUTH OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE EAST, POSITIVE MID-LEVEL
HEIGHTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF FLORIDA, SUPPORTING
INCREASED CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION. A SLIGHT RISK OF
EXTREME HEAT IS DESIGNATED FOR THIS AREA, MAY 8-12, WHERE MAXIMUM AIR
TEMPERATURES HAVE AT LEAST A 20% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING THE 85TH PERCENTILE AND 90
DEGREES F. ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS MAY SUPPORT HIGHER TEMPERATURES. THIS
HAZARD IS FURTHER SUPPORTED BY INDICATIONS OF CPC HEAT TOOLS.
THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS INDICATING MORE AMPLIFIED RIDGING
ACROSS THE WEST THROUGHOUT MUCH OF WEEK-2, TRANSLATING TO INCREASED SIGNALS FOR
ANOMALOUS WARMTH ACROSS THE REGION. A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE HEAT IS
HIGHLIGHTED FOR THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGHOUT WEEK-2, WHERE PETS INDICATE AT
LEAST A 20% CHANCE OF MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING THE 85TH PERCENTILE AND 95
DEGREES F (100 DEGREES F LOCALLY). HEATRISK TOOLS FURTHER INDICATE AT LEAST A
MODERATE LEVEL OF IMPACT IN THIS REGION.
OVER ALASKA, MODELS INDICATE POSSIBLE SURFACE LOW FORMATION OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA WHICH COULD BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE.
HOWEVER, NO WIDESPREAD HAZARDS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. ADDITIONALLY, THE
TYPICAL PEAK OF THE RIVER ICE BREAKUP SEASON IS APPROACHING, AND ICE JAM
FLOODING CAN OCCUR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH LITTLE OR NO NOTICE AS CONDITIONS ON
FROZEN RIVERS CAN CHANGE QUICKLY. PLEASE CHECK WITH THE ALASKA PACIFIC RIVER
FORECAST CENTER FOR THE LATEST CONDITIONS AND ADVISORIES.
FORECASTER: MELISSA OU
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