670
FXUS21 KWNC 011847
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT MAY 01 2026
SYNOPSIS: MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BE FAVORED OVER THE EASTERN
CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS), ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT. HEAVY
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED AHEAD OF AND ALONG THIS COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC AND GULF COAST STATES EARLY IN WEEK-2. MUCH BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS ARE FAVORED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. FREEZING AND
NEAR-FREEZING CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS, POTENTIALLY DAMAGING EARLY
SPRING BLOOMS.
HAZARDS
MODERATE RISK OF MUCH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, GREAT LAKES REGION, OHIO VALLEY, INTERIOR NORTHEAST AND
MID-ATLANTIC, AND APPALACHIANS, SAT, MAY 9.
SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM THE UPPER AND MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION, OHIO VALLEY,
INTERIOR NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC, AND APPALACHIANS, SAT-SUN, MAY 9-10.
MODERATE RISK OF HIGH WINDS FOR UPPER PARTS OF THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS,
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION, APPALACHIANS, AND EAST COAST AS FAR SOUTH AS
GEORGIA, SAT-SUN, MAY 9-10.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS FOR THE EASTERN QUARTER OF THE CONUS, AND ALONG MOST
OF THE GULF COAST, SAT-MON, MAY 9-11.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GREAT BASIN, SAT-TUE, MAY 9-12.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR THE APPALACHIANS, EAST COAST AND GULF
COAST STATES, SAT-MON, MAY 9-11.
SLIGHT RISK OF EXTREME HEAT FOR THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, SAT-THU, MAY 9-14.
SLIGHT RISK OF EXTREME HEAT FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA, SAT-TUE, MAY 9-12.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR MONDAY MAY 04 - FRIDAY MAY 08:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR SATURDAY MAY 09 - FRIDAY MAY 15: THERE CONTINUES TO BE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
INDICATING AMPLIFIED TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND RIDGING UPSTREAM
ACROSS THE WEST FROM THE END OF WEEK-1 INTO THE BEGINNING OF WEEK-2. THE CENTER
OF THE MID-LEVEL LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO BE OVER EASTERN CANADA BY THE BEGINNING
OF THE PERIOD. THE SIGNAL FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION HAS INCREASED SINCE YESTERDAY
OVER THE APPALACHIANS, EASTERN SEABOARD, AND GULF COAST STATES, WARRANTING A
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FROM MAY 9-11. UNCALIBRATED GEFS AND ECENS
GUIDANCE FAVORS 1.0-1.5 INCHES (LOCALLY 2 INCHES) WITHIN THIS 3-DAY PERIOD AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF EASTERN TEXAS AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE GULF COAST.
COLD SIGNALS COMPARABLE TO YESTERDAY FAVOR THE SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF RELATIVELY
COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS.
THEREFORE, A MODERATE RISK OF MUCH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS DESIGNATED FOR
PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, GREAT LAKES REGION, OHIO VALLEY,
INTERIOR NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC, AND APPALACHIANS, MAY 9. THE ECENS
PROBABILISTIC EXTREMES TOOL (PET) SHOWS A 30-40% CHANCE OF MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FALLING BELOW THE 15TH PERCENTILE CLIMATOLOGICALLY AND AT LEAST A 20% CHANCE OF
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW 38 DEGREES F ACROSS THIS REGION, WITH
FREEZING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS. THE ECENS PET IS A
REASONABLE COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE COLDER CANM PET AND THE MILDER GEFS PET. A
BROADER AREA OF SLIGHT RISK IS HIGHLIGHTED ACROSS THE UPPER AND MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION, OHIO VALLEY,
INTERIOR NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC, AND APPALACHIANS, MAY 9-10, WHERE THERE IS
AT LEAST A 20% CHANCE OF TEMPERATURES REACHING THESE THRESHOLDS. ANY RESIDUAL
COLD WITH FREEZING OR NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES MAY THREATEN VULNERABLE
SPRINGTIME VEGETATION, PARTICULARLY IN AREAS THAT HAVE EXPERIENCED EARLY GROWTH
DUE TO ANTECEDENT WARMTH DURING APRIL.
A SERIES OF SURFACE LOWS AND TRAILING FRONTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO TRACK ACROSS
THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN CONUS. THESE FEATURES MAY BRING GUSTY
CONDITIONS TO PARTS OF THE EAST. A MODERATE RISK OF HIGH WINDS IS DESIGNATED
FOR UPPER PARTS OF THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS, THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
REGION, APPALACHIANS, AND EAST COAST AS FAR SOUTH AS GEORGIA, MAY 9-10, WHERE
THE ECENS PET SHOWS AT LEAST A 20% CHANCE OF WIND SPEEDS EXCEEDING THE 85TH
PERCENTILE, WITH ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FROM UNCALIBRATED GUIDANCE INDICATING
ELEVATED CHANCES OF WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 20 MPH (35 MPH LOCALLY). A BROADER
AREA IS HIGHLIGHTED WITH A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THE EASTERN QUARTER OF THE CONUS
AND ALONG THE GULF COAST, MAY 9-11. WINDY CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH ANTICIPATED
COLD TEMPERATURES COULD SUPPORT LOWER WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES IN SOME AREAS.
WITH ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FAVORED
FOR FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF GEORGIA AND ENHANCED WINDS ANTICIPATED,
THERE MAY BE INCREASED WILDFIRE RISK ACROSS THESE AREAS WHICH ALREADY ARE
EXPERIENCING ACTIVE WILDFIRES. THE NATIONAL INTERAGENCY FIRE CENTER INDICATES A
MODERATE RISK OF SIGNIFICANT FIRE POTENTIAL AT THE END OF WEEK-1 IN CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN FLORIDA, WITH A MITIGATED RISK FARTHER NORTH DUE TO THE EXPECTATION OF
BRIEF AND LOCALIZED RAINFALL. A SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS IS ALSO DESIGNATED
FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN, MAY 9-12. TYPICALLY DURING THE
SPRINGTIME, ANY WIND SPEED MAXIMA ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBSTANTIAL MID-LEVEL
TROUGH MAY MIX DOWN TO THE VERY WARM SURFACE, RESULTING IN HIGHER WIND GUSTS.
THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE GEFS AND ECENS PETS FOR WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 20-25
MPH.
SOUTH OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE EAST, POSITIVE MID-LEVEL
HEIGHTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA, SUPPORTING INCREASED
CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION. A SLIGHT RISK OF EXTREME
HEAT IS DESIGNATED FOR THIS AREA, MAY 9-12, WHERE GEFS AND CANM MAXIMUM AIR
TEMPERATURES HAVE AT LEAST A 20% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING THE 85TH PERCENTILE AND 90
DEGREES F. ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS MAY SUPPORT HIGHER TEMPERATURES. THIS
HAZARD IS FURTHER SUPPORTED BY INDICATIONS OF CPC HEAT TOOLS.
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS INDICATING MORE AMPLIFIED RIDGING ACROSS
THE WEST THROUGHOUT MUCH OF WEEK-2, TRANSLATING TO INCREASED SIGNALS FOR
ANOMALOUS WARMTH ACROSS THE REGION. A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE HEAT IS
HIGHLIGHTED FOR THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGHOUT MOST OF WEEK-2, WHERE PETS
INDICATE AT LEAST A 20% CHANCE OF MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING THE 85TH
PERCENTILE AND 95 DEGREES F (100 DEGREES F LOCALLY). HEATRISK TOOLS FURTHER
INDICATE AT LEAST A MODERATE LEVEL OF IMPACT IN THIS REGION.
OVER ALASKA, MODELS INDICATE POSSIBLE SURFACE LOW FORMATION OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA WHICH COULD BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE.
HOWEVER, NO WIDESPREAD HAZARDS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. ADDITIONALLY, THE
TYPICAL PEAK OF THE RIVER ICE BREAKUP SEASON IS APPROACHING, AND ICE JAM
FLOODING CAN OCCUR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH LITTLE OR NO NOTICE AS CONDITIONS ON
FROZEN RIVERS CAN CHANGE QUICKLY. PLEASE CHECK WITH THE ALASKA PACIFIC RIVER
FORECAST CENTER FOR THE LATEST CONDITIONS AND ADVISORIES.
FORECASTER: ANTHONY ARTUSA
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page