284
FXUS21 KWNC 061829
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT MAY 06 2026
SYNOPSIS: A QUICK CHANCE OF EXTREME HEAT REMAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS AT THE END OF WEEK-1 AND INTO EARLY WEEK-2. A RISK
OF HIGH WINDS, IN THE SAME VICINITY, ELEVATES WILDFIRE RISKS ACROSS THE AREA.
ALONG THE WEST COAST, HIGH WINDS REMAIN POSSIBLE BEFORE MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES AWAY FROM THE INTERIOR WEST BY THE MIDDLE OF WEEK-2.
HAZARDS
SLIGHT RISK OF EXTREME HEAT FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS,
THU, MAY 14.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS,
THU-FRI, MAY 14-15.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS FOR PORTIONS OF COASTAL CALIFORNIA AND OREGON,
THU-FRI, MAY 14-15.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR SATURDAY MAY 09 - WEDNESDAY MAY 13:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR THURSDAY MAY 14 - WEDNESDAY MAY 20: THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN
ENSEMBLES DEPICT A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS)
EARLY IN WEEK-2. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS WITH TIME. AHEAD OF THIS RIDGE, SOUTHERLY FLOW IS
FORECAST INTO PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS BRIEFLY INCREASING
CHANCES FOR EXTREME HEAT IN PARTS OF THIS REGION. OVERALL, THE STRONGEST
CHANCES FOR EXTREME HEAT ARE NOW FAVORED DURING WEEK-1 BUT SOME LINGERING
CHANCES REMAIN AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE PLAINS. PROBABILISTIC HEAT
TOOLS FAVOR 20-40% CHANCES OF MAJOR HEAT RISK ACROSS AN AREA OF THE SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THESE PROBABILITIES ARE REDUCED COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.
SIMILARLY, THE GEFS AND ECENS PROBABILISTIC EXTREMES TOOLS ALSO FORECAST LOWER
CHANCES FOR TEMPERATURES TO APPROACH HAZARDOUS CRITERIA. THEREFORE, THE
MODERATE RISK OF EXTREME HEAT IS DISCONTINUED TODAY, WHILE A SLIGHT RISK OF
EXTREME HEAT REMAINS FORECAST FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS FOR
MAY 14. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WEST AND PLAINS, ARE FAVORED TO REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE WEEK-2 PERIOD, HOWEVER, AT THIS TIME TEMPERATURES DO NOT
SEEM LIKELY TO REACH EXTREME HEAT CRITERIA.
THE ANOMALOUS WARMTH FORECAST ACROSS THE WEST FAVORS THERMAL LOW DEVELOPMENT
AND AN INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG PARTS OF THE WEST COAST. THE
UNCALIBRATED 0Z GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES BOTH SHOW ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR
WIND SPEEDS ABOVE 25-MPH ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
OREGON EARLY IN WEEK-2, AND THIS SIGNAL IS ALSO APPARENT IN THE PETS.
THEREFORE, A SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS IS POSTED ACROSS THESE AREAS, MAY 14-15.
MODELS ALSO DEPICT ELEVATED CHANCES FOR GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
CONUS, AND THIS IS PARTICULARLY CONCERNING GIVEN THE EXTREME HEAT POTENTIAL
COMBINED WITH DRY SOILS CONTRIBUTING TO AN ENHANCED WILDFIRE THREAT. THIS
SUPPORTS A SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS, MAY 14-15.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY FOR WEEK-2 ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. PETS FROM THE GEFS AND ECENS SHOW ENHANCED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
EXCEEDING THE 85TH CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD ACROSS THIS
REGION. HOWEVER, THE UNCALIBRATED PRECIPITATION GUIDANCE PROBABILITIES FROM THE
GEFS ALONG WITH ANALOG GUIDANCE IS CAUTIONARY. FURTHER, MUCH OF THIS AREA
REMAINS IN AT LEAST SEVERE DROUGHT AND ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD LIKELY BE
BENEFICIAL. THEREFORE, NO CORRESPONDING HAZARD IS POSTED BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
BE MONITORED.
BY THE MIDDLE OF WEEK-2, THE MEANS OF THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN
ENSEMBLES DEPICT A MID-LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING NEAR THE WEST COAST WHILE
MID-LEVEL RIDGING MOVES EASTWARD OVER THE PLAINS. THIS COULD SET UP A MORE
ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THE END OF WEEK-2 OVER THE CONUS. HOWEVER, UNCERTAINTY IS
PARTICULARLY HIGH BY THE MIDDLE OF THE PERIOD AND NO CORRESPONDING HAZARDS ARE
POSTED AT THIS TIME, BUT WILL BE MONITORED.
IN ALASKA, THE TYPICAL PEAK OF THE RIVER ICE BREAKUP SEASON IS APPROACHING, AND
ICE JAM FLOODING CAN OCCUR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH LITTLE OR NO NOTICE AS
CONDITIONS ON FROZEN RIVERS CAN CHANGE QUICKLY. PLEASE CHECK WITH THE ALASKA
PACIFIC RIVER FORECAST CENTER FOR THE LATEST CONDITIONS AND ADVISORIES.
FORECASTER: RYAN BOLT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page