831
FXUS21 KWNC 071743
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT MAY 07 2026
SYNOPSIS: MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE
CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD, WHILE MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS NEAR THE WEST COAST. THIS FAVORS RELATIVELY COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE WESTERN CONUS COMPARED TO WEEK-1, ALONG WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE OF GUSTY
WINDS ACROSS COASTAL PARTS OF OREGON AND CALIFORNIA. CONVERSELY, A FLIP TO A
WARMER PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE EASTERN U.S. BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER, WHILE ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE BECOMING MORE LIKELY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE EAST, EXTREME HEAT CRITERIA IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE REACHED.
HAZARDS
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS FOR PORTIONS OF COASTAL CALIFORNIA AND OREGON,
FRI-MON, MAY 15-18.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR SUNDAY MAY 10 - THURSDAY MAY 14:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR FRIDAY MAY 15 - THURSDAY MAY 21: THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES
DEPICT A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND A BROAD +60 METER POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER
SHIFTING FROM THE WESTERN CONUS TO THE EAST-CENTRAL CONUS. AS A RESULT, MUCH
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. LATER IN WEEK-2
COMPARED TO LATE APRIL AND EARLIER IN MAY. GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR, AND LOW
HUMIDITY, MANY AREAS ARE FAVORED TO BE WARM BUT COMFORTABLE, WITH TYPICAL LATE
SPRING WEATHER. THEREFORE, NO RELATED RISKS OF EXTREME HEAT ARE FORECAST. AS
THE RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST, TROUGHING IS FAVORED TO DEVELOP IN ITS WAKE NEAR
THE WEST COAST. THIS SUPPORTS RELATIVELY COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER THE SOUTHWEST
COMPARED TO WEEK-1 ALONG WITH ELEVATED CHANCES FOR COASTAL HIGH WINDS, FURTHER
ENHANCED BY POTENTIAL THERMAL LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND A
TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE COAST. BOTH THE GEFS AND ECMWF
PROBABILISTIC EXTREMES TOOLS (PETS) INDICATE AT LEAST A 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR
WIND SPEEDS EXCEEDING THE 85TH CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE AND 25-MPH FOR MUCH OF
THE COAST. THE SLIGHT RISK IS EXTENDED FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, AND IS NOW VALID THROUGH MAY 18 GIVEN ENHANCED SIGNALS
IN THE UNCALIBRATED GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES.
EXTREME HEAT CHANCES ARE ALSO FORECAST TO DECREASE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
WHILE TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY ABOVE 95 DEG F REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER SOME AREAS,
HEAT RISK GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DOWNWARD COMPARED TO WEEK-1, WITH THE NATIONAL
BLEND OF MODELS (NBM) NOT DEPICTING RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES CONTINUING
INTO WEEK-2. THEREFORE THE SLIGHT RISK OF EXTREME HEAT OVER THE REGION IS
REMOVED IN TODAY'S OUTLOOK. ELEVATED WIND SIGNALS HAVE ALSO DIMINISHED, AND
INCREASING MOISTURE MAY LIMIT FUELS FOR WILDFIRE DEVELOPMENT. THEREFORE, THE
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS IS ALSO REMOVED.
BOTH THE GEFS AND ECMWF PETS INDICATE AT LEAST A 20 PERCENT CHANCE 3-DAY
PRECIPITATION TOTALS EXCEED 1-INCH OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND ADJACENT MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGHOUT WEEK-2 TIED TO AN EASTWARD
SHIFTING SURFACE HIGH AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING FROM THE GULF. THE
UNCALIBRATED 0Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE CONTINUES TO DEPICT A MORE ROBUST SIGNAL FOR
INCREASED PRECIPITATION OVER THE REGION COMPARED TO THE DRIER 0Z GEFS. ALONG
WITH THIS INCONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS, MANY AREAS ARE UNDERNEATH SEVERE TO
EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT. THEREFORE, ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD LIKELY BE BENEFICIAL
RATHER THAN HAZARDOUS, AND NO RELATED PRECIPITATION HAZARD IS DEPICTED IN THE
FORECAST.
TROUGHING IN THE VICINITY OF ALASKA FAVORS ENHANCED CHANCES OF NEAR- TO
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF THE STATE.
THE TYPICAL PEAK OF THE RIVER ICE BREAKUP SEASON IS APPROACHING, AND ICE JAM
FLOODING CAN OCCUR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH LITTLE OR NO NOTICE AS CONDITIONS ON
FROZEN RIVERS CAN CHANGE QUICKLY. PLEASE CHECK WITH THE ALASKA PACIFIC RIVER
FORECAST CENTER FOR THE LATEST CONDITIONS AND ADVISORIES.
FORECASTER: THOMAS COLLOW
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