376
FXUS21 KWNC 151744
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT MAY 15 2026
SYNOPSIS: MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO SHIFT EASTWARD FROM THE
NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC TO THE WEST COAST BY THE MIDDLE OF WEEK-2. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS). THIS LOW PRESSURE COMBINED WITH ENHANCED MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE GULF INCREASES THE LIKELIHOOD FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION
ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. FROM THE END OF
WEEK-1 INTO MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. SURFACE LOWS ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST MAY
SUPPORT EPISODES OF HIGH WINDS FOR PARTS OF THIS REGION AND THE GREAT PLAINS.
HAZARDS
MODERATE RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY, AND SOUTHEASTERN U.S., SAT-SUN, MAY 23-24.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, LOWER
MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS, AND SOUTHEASTERN U.S., SAT-MON, MAY 23-25.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS FOR PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR WEST AND THE GREAT
PLAINS, MON-WED, MAY 25-27.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR MONDAY MAY 18 - FRIDAY MAY 22:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR SATURDAY MAY 23 - FRIDAY MAY 29: MULTIPLE MODEL ENSEMBLE MEANS INDICATE
MID-LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTRY EXCEPT FOR TROUGHING ACROSS THE
WEST COAST FOR THE WEEK-2 PERIOD. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CONUS EXCEPT FOR THE WEST COAST, SOUTHERN FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO
WESTERN TEXAS WHICH IS FORECAST TO HAVE NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE
PROBABILISTIC EXTREMES TOOLS (PETS) INDICATE TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING THE 85TH
PERCENTILE CLIMATOLOGICALLY PERIODICALLY ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR PORTIONS
OF THE CONUS, HOWEVER NOT REACHING OR EXCEEDING HAZARDOUS CRITERIA AT THIS TIME.
MID-LEVEL TROUGHING WITH THE TROUGH AXIS CENTERED ACROSS THE WEST COAST IS
PREDICTED TO CONTINUE FROM THE END OF WEEK-1 INTO AND THROUGH WEEK-2. A SERIES
OF SURFACE LOWS AND TRAILING FRONTS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS. THIS PATTERN COMBINED WITH ENHANCED SOUTHERLY MOIST FLOW FROM
THE GULF INCREASES THE CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PARTS OF THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS DURING MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. A MODERATE
RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS DESIGNATED FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS,
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND SOUTHEASTERN U.S., MAY 23-24, WHERE THE ECENS
(GEFS) INDICATE AT LEAST A 40% (30%) CHANCE OF 3-DAY RAINFALL EXCEEDING ONE
INCH, WITH UNCALIBRATED GUIDANCE SHOWING HIGHER PROBABILITIES. A BROADER AREA
IS HIGHLIGHTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS, AND SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WITH A SLIGHT RISK (20-40% CHANCE) OF
HEAVY PRECIPITATION, MAY 23-25. CONDITIONS MAY BE CONDUCIVE TO THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. GIVEN THE PREVAILING DROUGHT
CONDITIONS FOR MANY AREAS ACROSS THE SOUTH, THESE RAINS MAY PROVE BENEFICIAL.
HOWEVER, ISOLATED FLASH AND URBAN FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. ADDITIONALLY WET
CONDITIONS DURING WEEK-1 MAY ELEVATE RIVERS IN PORTIONS OF THE REGION,
ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED RIVER FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN EAST TEXAS
AND ADJACENT AREAS.
THE SLIGHT RISK FOR HIGH WINDS ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST IS
DISCONTINUED IN TODAY’S OUTLOOK DUE TO TIMING OUT. AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST COAST, SURFACE LOWS ARE PREDICTED TO FORM ACROSS THE
INTERIOR WEST AND IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES, SUPPORTING A SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH
WINDS FOR THESE AREAS FOR THE MIDDLE OF WEEK-2 (MAY 25-27), AS THE PATTERN
BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE FOR THIS HAZARD. THE PETS SHOW AT LEAST A 20% CHANCE OF
WIND SPEEDS EXCEEDING THE 85TH PERCENTILE, WITH UNCALIBRATED ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
SHOWING ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 34 KTS (~ 40 MPH) IN THE
HIGHLIGHTED RISK AREA.
IN ALASKA, RIVER ICE BREAKUP SEASON IS NOW UNDERWAY, AND ICE JAM FLOODING CAN
OCCUR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH LITTLE OR NO NOTICE AS CONDITIONS ON FROZEN RIVERS
CAN CHANGE QUICKLY. PLEASE CHECK WITH THE ALASKA PACIFIC RIVER FORECAST CENTER
FOR THE LATEST CONDITIONS AND ADVISORIES.
FORECASTER: MELISSA OU
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