086
FXUS21 KWNC 221819
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT MAY 22 2026
SYNOPSIS: STRONG MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA AND WEAK MID-LEVEL
FLOW OVER THE CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) FAVOR A RELATIVELY QUIET WEEK-2 FORECAST
FROM A HAZARDS PERSPECTIVE. WIDESPREAD HEAVY PRECIPITATION DURING WEEK-1 MAY
CAUSE FLOODING FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND EAST TEXAS,
WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO LINGER INTO THE WEEK-2 PERIOD. A LINGERING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS FAVORED TO INTERACT WITH MOIST SUBTROPICAL AIR, BRINGING THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION TO PORTIONS OF FLORIDA.
HAZARDS
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA, SAT-TUE,
MAY 30-JUN 2.
FLOODING POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF EASTERN TEXAS, PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA, ARKANSAS,
LOUISIANA, AND MISSISSIPPI.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR MONDAY MAY 25 - FRIDAY MAY 29:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR SATURDAY MAY 30 - FRIDAY JUNE 05: MULTIPLE MODEL ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS FOR
500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES DEPICT A HIGH-LATITUDE OMEGA BLOCK BECOMING
ESTABLISHED AT THE OUTSET OF WEEK-2 WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE CENTERED OVER
MANITOBA AND MODERATE TROUGHING OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES, WHILE WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES ARE INDICATED IN THE SUBTROPICS, A
PATTERN REMINISCENT OF EL NINO FORCING. IT WOULD BE EARLY FOR SUCH FORCING TO
EMERGE BUT OCEAN TEMPERATURES IN THE EL NINO MONITORING REGIONS HAVE RISEN
DRAMATICALLY OVER THE LAST FEW MONTHS SO A QUICK ONSET OF FORCING IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION. REGARDLESS OF THE SOURCE THOUGH, THE HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING
PATTERN FAVORS RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WEATHER OVER THE CONUS. TEMPERATURES ARE
STRONGLY FAVORED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS, NEAR THE AXIS OF
THE RIDGE, HOWEVER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED HAZARDOUS
THRESHOLDS SO NO CORRESPONDING HAZARD IS ISSUED AT THIS TIME.
MODEL ENSEMBLES DEPICT A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING OVER THE GULF OF
AMERICA IN THE WAKE OF ACTIVE WEATHER DURING WEEK-1. THIS BOUNDARY AND
ASSOCIATED RETURN FLOW IS FAVORED TO INTERACT WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE, RESULTING
IN POTENTIALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF FLORIDA. THE PROBABILISTIC
EXTREMES TOOLS (PETS) FROM THE ECMWF AND GEFS BOTH INDICATE AT LEAST A 20%
CHANCE OF 3-DAY PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATIONS TO EXCEED THE 85TH CLIMATOLOGICAL
PERCENTILE AND AT LEAST 1 INCH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF WEEK-2. UNCALIBRATED
PROBABILITIES FROM BOTH MODELS ARE ALSO VERY BULLISH, WITH THE ECMWF INDICATING
A 20-30% CHANCE OF 2 INCH ACCUMULATIONS OVER 3 DAYS EARLY IN THE PERIOD FOR
SOUTHERN FLORIDA. THEREFORE A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS POSTED FOR
MOST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA, VALID MAY 30-JUN 2.
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE LIKELY DURING WEEK-1 AND MAY
TRIGGER FLOODING; SOME WATERSHEDS ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO RISE IN RESPONSE TO
THE LARGE INFLUX OF SURFACE WATER. WEEK-1 QPF FORECASTS FROM THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER DEPICT PRECIPITATION TOTALS EXCEEDING 3-5 INCHES FROM
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS NORTHEASTWARD INTO PORTIONS OF ARKANSAS AND LOUISIANA, AND
ANY CONTINUED HEAVY PRECIPITATION INTO WEEK-2 SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL OF
CONTINUED RIVER FLOODING. A FLOODING POSSIBLE HAZARD REMAINS POSTED FOR EASTERN
TEXAS AND MUCH OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, WHILE PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS
HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THIS HAZARD IN TODAY’S OUTLOOK. LOCALLY HEAVY
PRECIPITATION MAY TRIGGER URBAN AND FLASH FLOODING AS WELL, AND CAUTION SHOULD
ALWAYS BE EXERCISED WHEN APPROACHING FLOODWATERS.
IN ALASKA, RIVER ICE BREAKUP SEASON IS BEGINNING TO WIND DOWN, BUT PORTIONS OF
THE LOWER YUKON AND MANY RIVERS NORTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE REMAIN ICEBOUND.
RIVER BREAKUP FLOODING CAN OCCUR WITH LITTLE OR NO NOTICE AS CONDITIONS ON
FROZEN RIVERS CAN CHANGE QUICKLY, SO PLEASE CHECK WITH THE ALASKA PACIFIC RIVER
FORECAST CENTER FOR THE LATEST CONDITIONS AND ADVISORIES.
FORECASTER: DANNY BARANDIARAN
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