639
FXUS21 KWNC 231813
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT MAY 23 2026
SYNOPSIS: A LARGE AREA OF MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER
THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) FROM LATE MAY INTO THE BEGINNING OF
JUNE. THIS MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE FAVORS A WARM, DRY PATTERN ACROSS THE
MIDWEST FROM MAY 31 TO JUNE 6. THE WESTERN CONUS IS LIKELY TO HAVE A WARM START
TO JUNE, BUT HAZARDOUS HEAT IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. ENHANCED TROPICAL
MOISTURE INTERACTING WITH A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INCREASES THE RISK
OF HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND COASTAL SOUTHEAST THROUGH AT
LEAST THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF JUNE.
HAZARDS
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ALONG WITH COASTAL
AREAS OF GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA, SUN-WED, MAY 31-JUNE 3.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR TUESDAY MAY 26 - SATURDAY MAY 30:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR SUNDAY MAY 31 - SATURDAY JUNE 06: THE GEFS AND ECENS MAINTAIN AN OMEGA
BLOCK AT 500-HPA OVER THE MIDDLE TO HIGH LATITUDES OF NORTH AMERICA AND THE
SURROUNDING REGIONS THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF WEEK-2. THE ENSEMBLE MEAN
SOLUTIONS DEPICT A STRONG 500-HPA RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS
NORTHWARD THROUGH MANITOBA, WITH MID-LEVEL TROUGHS OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC AND
NORTH PACIFIC. ALTHOUGH ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO ACCOMPANY THE
ANOMALOUS 500-HPA RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY, EXTREME HEAT IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME OF YEAR. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO ONLY WARM INTO THE 80S DEGREES F. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED TO EXPAND WEST TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRETY OF THE WESTERN CONUS BY DAY 10,
JUNE 2ND. THIS REGION WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR ANY ELEVATED CHANCES OF
EXTREME HEAT IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS.
LATER NEXT WEEK AND CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST THE BEGINNING OF JUNE, MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA, ESPECIALLY SOUTH FLORIDA. PRIOR TO THE START OF WEEK-2
(MAY 31), SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTLY FLOW IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE TO EXPAND NORTHWARD FROM THE CARIBBEAN. THE GEFS AND ECENS ARE IN
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER BECOMES
WELL-ESTABLISHED THROUGHOUT FLORIDA AND PERSISTS INTO THE WEEK-2 PERIOD. A
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT AND MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL ENHANCE CONVECTION WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS FAR NORTH AS COASTAL AREAS OF GEORGIA AND SOUTH
CAROLINA, SUPPORTING A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FROM MAY 31-JUNE 3.
SINCE THE ECENS AND GEFS DEPICT LESS THAN A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF 3-DAY
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 2 INCHES, A MODERATE RISK OF HEAVY
PRECIPITATION IS NOT POSTED. IN ADDITION, THE ECENS AND GEFS PROBABILISTIC
EXTREMES TOOLS INDICATE A 20 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE THAT 3-DAY PRECIPITATION
REACHES THE 85TH PERCENTILE. GIVEN THE ANOMALOUS LOW TO MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
WEAK STEERING FLOW, ANY SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORM WOULD INCREASE THE RISK OF
URBAN FLASH FLOODING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. THE RECENT TRANSITION FROM A LA NINA
DRY PATTERN TO A WETTER REGIME WOULD BRING DROUGHT RELIEF TO FLORIDA AND THE
COASTAL SOUTHEAST. ACCORDING TO THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR VALID MAY 19,
THREE-QUARTERS OF FLORIDA IS DESIGNATED WITH EXTREME (D3) TO EXCEPTIONAL (D4)
DROUGHT.
ALTHOUGH ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS
DURING WEEK-2, THE FLOODING POSSIBLE HAZARD WAS DISCONTINUED WITH THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST LATER NEXT WEEK. MULTIPLE MODEL ENSEMBLE
MEAN SOLUTIONS FEATURE AROUND AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE ENTIRE WEEK-2
PERIOD. THEREFORE, WIDESPREAD RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED HEADING INTO EARLY
JUNE.
IN ALASKA, RIVER ICE BREAKUP SEASON IS WINDING DOWN OVERALL BUT THE KOBUK RIVER
NEAR KOTZEBUE SOUND AND MANY RIVERS NORTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE REMAIN ICEBOUND.
RIVER BREAKUP FLOODING CAN OCCUR WITH LITTLE OR NO NOTICE AS CONDITIONS ON
FROZEN RIVERS CAN CHANGE QUICKLY, SO PLEASE CHECK WITH THE ALASKA PACIFIC RIVER
FORECAST CENTER FOR THE LATEST CONDITIONS AND ADVISORIES.
FORECASTER: BRAD PUGH
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