351
FXUS21 KWNC 241814
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT MAY 24 2026
SYNOPSIS: MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE COUPLED WITH A STATIONARY FRONT INCREASES THE
CHANCE OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FROM JUNE 1 TO 4. A LARGE
AREA OF MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL
CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS). BY THE BEGINNING OF JUNE, THIS MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND WESTWARD AND BRING A WARMING TREND TO THE WESTERN CONUS.
EXTREME HEAT WOULD MOST LIKELY AFFECT THE CENTRAL VALLEY OF CALIFORNIA DURING
THE FIRST WEEK OF JUNE.
HAZARDS
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST, MON-THU, JUNE
1-4.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO,
MON-TUE, JUNE 1-2.
SLIGHT RISK OF EXTREME HEAT FOR THE CENTRAL VALLEY OF CALIFORNIA, MON-THU, JUNE
1-4.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR WEDNESDAY MAY 27 - SUNDAY MAY 31:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR MONDAY JUNE 01 - SUNDAY JUNE 07: THE GEFS AND ECENS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT A 500-HPA TROUGH AMPLIFIES ALONG THE EAST COAST LATER NEXT WEEK, LEADING
TO A COLD FRONT SHIFTING INTO THE SOUTHEAST BY THE END OF MAY. THIS FRONT IS
FORECAST TO BECOME STATIONARY AND WITH THE TROUGH ALOFT, THE PATTERN IS
FAVORABLE FOR ENHANCED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TO START JUNE. BASED
ON 24-HOUR PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM THE ENSEMBLE MEANS AND SUPPORT FROM THE
GEFS AND ECENS PROBABILISTIC EXTREME TOOLS (PETS), A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY
PRECIPITATION IS POSTED FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST FROM JUNE 1 TO 4. SINCE THE
PETS DEPICT LESS THAN A 40% CHANCE THAT 3-DAY AMOUNTS EXCEED THE 85TH
PERCENTILE, A MODERATE RISK IS NOT DESIGNATED AT THIS TIME. GIVEN THE ANOMALOUS
LOW TO MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK STEERING FLOW, ANY SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS
WOULD INCREASE THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING. THE TRANSITION FROM A DRY LA NINA
PATTERN TO A WETTER REGIME WOULD BRING DROUGHT RELIEF TO THE SOUTHEAST.
ACCORDING TO THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR VALID MAY 19, THREE-QUARTERS OF FLORIDA
IS DESIGNATED WITH EXTREME (D3) TO EXCEPTIONAL (D4) DROUGHT.
THE TAIL END OF A FRONT ALONG WITH UPSLOPE, SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW INCREASES THE
RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT
HIGH PLAINS. ON JUNE 1 AND 2, THE GEFS AND ECENS (20 TO 40% CHANCE OF MORE THAN
1”) SUPPORT A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF COLORADO AND NEW
MEXICO. ELSEWHERE ACROSS TEXAS AND THE WESTERN GULF COAST, MODELS DIVERGE ON
THE RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION WITH THE GEFS DRIER THAN THE ECENS. THESE MODEL
DIFFERENCES PRECLUDE SPECIFYING ANY OTHER AREAS IN A HEAVY PRECIPITATION
HAZARD.
AN OMEGA BLOCK AT 500-HPA OVER THE MIDDLE TO HIGH LATITUDES OF NORTH AMERICA,
NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC, AND NORTHEAST PACIFIC IS FORECAST TO PERSIST FROM LATE
MAY INTO THE BEGINNING OF JUNE. THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS DEPICT A STRONG
500-HPA RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS NORTHWARD THROUGH
MANITOBA. BY JUNE 1, MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS FAVOR A WESTWARD
EXPANSION OF THIS RIDGE WITH POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES (MORE THAN +60
METERS) DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS
PREDICTED LONGWAVE PATTERN WOULD BRING A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND TO THIS
REGION HEADING INTO JUNE. A SLIGHT RISK OF EXTREME HEAT (JUNE 1 TO 4) IS POSTED
FOR THE CENTRAL VALLEY OF CALIFORNIA WHERE THE GEFS AND ECENS PETS DEPICT THAT
THERE IS A 20 TO 40% CHANCE THAT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES EXCEED THE 85TH
PERCENTILE AND 95 DEGREES F. ALTHOUGH ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY
THROUGHOUT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW THE THRESHOLD FOR EXTREME HEAT. THE
WARMEST TEMPERATURES (UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S) ARE FORECAST IN THE SNAKE RIVER
VALLEY OF IDAHO ALONG WITH EASTERN PORTIONS OF OREGON AND WASHINGTON.
IN ALASKA, RIVER ICE BREAKUP SEASON IS WINDING DOWN, BUT MANY RIVERS NORTH OF
THE BROOKS RANGE REMAIN ICEBOUND. RIVER BREAKUP FLOODING CAN OCCUR WITH LITTLE
OR NO NOTICE AS CONDITIONS ON FROZEN RIVERS CAN CHANGE QUICKLY, SO PLEASE CHECK
WITH THE ALASKA PACIFIC RIVER FORECAST CENTER FOR THE LATEST CONDITIONS AND
ADVISORIES.
FORECASTER: BRAD PUGH
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