428
FXUS21 KWNC 251807
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT MAY 25 2026
SYNOPSIS: MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE COUPLED WITH A STATIONARY FRONT INCREASES THE
CHANCE OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST, ESPECIALLY
FLORIDA, DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF JUNE. A LARGE AREA OF MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
IS FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS). BY THE
BEGINNING OF JUNE, THIS MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IS PREDICTED TO EXPAND
SOUTHWESTWARD AND BRING A WARMING TREND TO THE WESTERN CONUS. THE MOST LIKELY
AREAS TO EXPERIENCE EXTREME HEAT WOULD BE THE CENTRAL VALLEY OF CALIFORNIA AND
DESERT SOUTHWEST FROM JUNE 2 TO 4.
HAZARDS
MODERATE RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA, TUE-THU,
JUNE 2-4.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST, TUE-FRI, JUNE
2-5.
SLIGHT RISK OF EXTREME HEAT FOR THE CENTRAL VALLEY OF CALIFORNIA AND DESERT
SOUTHWEST, TUE-THU, JUNE 2-4.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR THURSDAY MAY 28 - MONDAY JUNE 01:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR TUESDAY JUNE 02 - MONDAY JUNE 08: AT THE BEGINNING OF JUNE, THE GEFS AND
ECENS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED 500-HPA RIDGE EXTENDING
FROM THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS NORTHWARD TO HUDSON BAY. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS STRONG
MID-LEVEL RIDGE, A 500-HPA TROUGH IS FORECAST ALONG THE EAST COAST AND WESTERN
ATLANTIC. A COLD FRONT, ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH ALOFT, IS PREDICTED TO
SHIFT SOUTHWARD AND BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE GULF COAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS STATIONARY FRONT WILL ENHANCE PRECIPITATION AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY
EVEN DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. REGARDLESS OF ANY SURFACE LOW FORMATION, THE
PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR A VERY WET PATTERN ACROSS FLORIDA DUE TO DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE AND A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THEREFORE, A MODERATE RISK OF
HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS POSTED FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
FROM JUNE 2 TO 4. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE UNCALIBRATED ECENS WHICH DEPICTS
THAT THERE IS NEAR A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF 3-DAY AMOUNTS TO EXCEED 2 INCHES. A
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION, VALID THROUGH JUNE 5, IS DESIGNATED FOR
AREAS AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA BASED ON
24-HOUR PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM THE GEFS AND ECENS.GIVEN THE ANOMALOUS LOW
TO MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK STEERING FLOW, ANY SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS
WOULD INCREASE THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING. THE TRANSITION FROM A DRY LA NINA
PATTERN TO A WETTER REGIME WOULD BRING DROUGHT RELIEF TO THE SOUTHEAST.
ACCORDING TO THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR VALID MAY 19, THREE-QUARTERS OF FLORIDA
IS DESIGNATED WITH EXTREME (D3) TO EXCEPTIONAL (D4) DROUGHT.
AN OMEGA BLOCK AT 500-HPA OVER THE MIDDLE TO HIGH LATITUDES OF NORTH AMERICA,
NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC, AND NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC IS FORECAST TO PERSIST FROM
LATE MAY INTO THE BEGINNING OF JUNE. PRIOR TO THE START OF WEEK-2 (JUNE 2),
MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS FAVOR A SOUTHWESTWARD EXPANSION OF THE
CENTRAL NORTH AMERICAN RIDGE WITH POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES (MORE THAN
+60 METERS) DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS PREDICTED LONGWAVE PATTERN
WOULD BRING A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND TO THIS REGION HEADING INTO JUNE. A
SLIGHT RISK OF EXTREME HEAT (JUNE 2 TO 4) IS POSTED FOR THE CENTRAL VALLEY OF
CALIFORNIA AND DESERT SOUTHWEST WHERE THE GEFS AND ECENS PETS DEPICT THAT THERE
IS A 20 TO 40% CHANCE THAT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES EXCEED THE 85TH PERCENTILE
ALONG WITH 95 AND 105 DEGREES F, RESPECTIVELY. ALTHOUGH ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY (>50% CHANCE) FOR MUCH OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST,
NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, AND NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS DURING WEEK-2, MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW THE THRESHOLD FOR EXTREME HEAT. THE
WARMEST TEMPERATURES (UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S) ARE FORECAST IN THE SNAKE RIVER
VALLEY OF IDAHO ALONG WITH EASTERN PORTIONS OF OREGON AND WASHINGTON.
IN ALASKA, RIVER ICE BREAKUP SEASON IS ENDING, BUT MANY RIVERS NORTH OF THE
BROOKS RANGE REMAIN ICEBOUND. RIVER BREAKUP FLOODING CAN OCCUR WITH LITTLE OR
NO NOTICE AS CONDITIONS ON FROZEN RIVERS CAN CHANGE QUICKLY, SO PLEASE CHECK
WITH THE ALASKA PACIFIC RIVER FORECAST CENTER FOR THE LATEST CONDITIONS AND
ADVISORIES.
FORECASTER: BRAD PUGH
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