213
FXUS21 KWNC 261838
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT MAY 26 2026
SYNOPSIS: MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE COUPLED WITH A STATIONARY FRONT INCREASES THE
CHANCE OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST, ESPECIALLY
FLORIDA, DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF JUNE. A LARGE AREA OF MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
IS FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS). BY THE
BEGINNING OF JUNE, THIS MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IS PREDICTED TO EXPAND
SOUTHWESTWARD AND BRING A WARMING TREND TO THE WESTERN CONUS. THE MOST LIKELY
AREAS TO EXPERIENCE EXTREME HEAT WOULD BE THE CENTRAL VALLEY OF CALIFORNIA AND
DESERT SOUTHWEST FROM JUNE 2 TO 3.
HAZARDS
MODERATE RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA, WED-THU,
JUNE 3-4.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST, WED-FRI, JUNE
3-5.
SLIGHT RISK OF EXTREME HEAT FOR THE CENTRAL VALLEY OF CALIFORNIA AND PARTS OF
THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST, WED-THU, JUNE 3-4.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS FOR PARTS OF THE CALIFORNIA COAST, WED-SUN, JUNE 3-7.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR FRIDAY MAY 29 - TUESDAY JUNE 02:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR WEDNESDAY JUNE 03 - TUESDAY JUNE 09: THE GEFS AND ECENS CONTINUE TO BE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE BEGINNING OF JUNE WITH A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED 500-HPA RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS NORTHWARD TO HUDSON BAY. DOWNSTREAM OF
THIS STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE, A 500-HPA TROUGH IS FORECAST ALONG THE EAST COAST
AND WESTERN ATLANTIC. A COLD FRONT, ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH ALOFT, IS
PREDICTED TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD AND BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE GULF COAST BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS STATIONARY FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO ENHANCE PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS FLORIDA DUE TO DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
AND A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THEREFORE, A MODERATE RISK OF HEAVY
PRECIPITATION IS CONTINUED FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM
JUNE 3-4, WITH SLIGHT EXPANSION EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT. THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR THE END OF WEEK-1, POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THE
BEGINNING OF WEEK-2. THE PROBABILISTIC EXTREMES TOOLS (PETS) INDICATE AT LEAST
A 30% CHANCE OF 3-DAY RAINFALL EXCEEDING ONE INCH ACROSS PORTIONS OF FLORIDA
DURING JUNE 3-5, WITH MOST OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURRING DURING THE FIRST TWO
DAYS OF THIS PERIOD. THE UNCALIBRATED ECENS KEEPS MORE OF THE ENHANCED RAINFALL
OVER FLORIDA (AT LEAST A 50% CHANCE OF 3-DAY RAINFALL EXCEEDING ONE INCH),
WHILE THE GEFS HAS THE FRONT SHIFTING OFFSHORE A BIT QUICKER, WITH ONLY PARTS
OF SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA SHOWING THESE HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING ONE
INCH. A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION, VALID THROUGH JUNE 5, IS DESIGNATED
FOR AREAS AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA BASED ON
24-HOUR PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM THE GEFS AND ECENS.GIVEN THE ANOMALOUS LOW
TO MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK STEERING FLOW, ANY SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS
WOULD INCREASE THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING. THE TRANSITION FROM A DRY LA NINA
PATTERN TO A WETTER REGIME WOULD BRING DROUGHT RELIEF TO THE SOUTHEAST.
ACCORDING TO THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR VALID MAY 19, THREE-QUARTERS OF FLORIDA
IS DESIGNATED WITH EXTREME (D3) TO EXCEPTIONAL (D4) DROUGHT. DESPITE CURRENT
DRY CONDITIONS, ANTICIPATED ANTECEDENT HEAVY RAINFALL MAY INITIATE FLOOD
CONDITIONS, THIS REGION WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD RISK.
AN OMEGA BLOCK AT 500-HPA OVER THE MIDDLE TO HIGH LATITUDES OF NORTH AMERICA,
NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC, AND NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC IS FORECAST TO PERSIST FROM
LATE MAY INTO THE BEGINNING OF JUNE. MID-LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS FROM THE
END OF WEEK-1 INTO WEEK-2, BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND TO THIS REGION.
A SLIGHT RISK OF EXTREME HEAT (JUNE 3 TO 4) IS POSTED FOR THE CENTRAL VALLEY OF
CALIFORNIA AND DESERT SOUTHWEST WHERE THE GEFS AND ECENS PETS DEPICT THAT THERE
IS A 20 TO 30% CHANCE OF MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING THE 85TH PERCENTILE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY ALONG WITH 95 AND 105 DEGREES F, RESPECTIVELY. THE
EXPERIMENTAL HEATRISK TOOL INDICATES ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF MAJOR OR HIGHER
HEAT RISK ACROSS THESE HIGHLIGHTED EXTREME HEAT REGIONS. ALTHOUGH PETS INDICATE
AT LEAST A 20% CHANCE OF TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING THE 85TH PERCENTILE FOR MUCH OF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, AND NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS
DURING WEEK-2, ACTUAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW THE THRESHOLD
FOR EXTREME HEAT. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES (UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S) ARE
FORECAST IN THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY OF IDAHO ALONG WITH EASTERN PORTIONS OF
OREGON AND WASHINGTON.
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY SET UP ACROSS PARTS OF COASTAL CALIFORNIA DUE TO
THERMAL LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST DUE TO
INTENSE SOLAR HEATING AND ADJACENT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SHORE OF
COASTAL CALIFORNIA. THIS SET UP SUPPORTS A SLIGHT RISK OF EPISODIC HIGH WINDS
FOR PARTS OF COASTAL CALIFORNIA JUNE 3-7. THE PETS INDICATE AT LEAST A 20%
CHANCE OF WIND SPEEDS EXCEEDING THE 85TH PERCENTILE AND 25 MPH, FURTHER
SUPPORTED BY UNCALIBRATED GUIDANCE SHOWING INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS
EXCEEDING 34 MPH.
IN ALASKA, RIVER ICE BREAKUP SEASON IS ENDING, BUT MANY RIVERS NORTH OF THE
BROOKS RANGE REMAIN ICEBOUND. RIVER BREAKUP FLOODING CAN OCCUR WITH LITTLE OR
NO NOTICE AS CONDITIONS ON FROZEN RIVERS CAN CHANGE QUICKLY, SO PLEASE CHECK
WITH THE ALASKA PACIFIC RIVER FORECAST CENTER FOR THE LATEST CONDITIONS AND
ADVISORIES.
FORECASTER: MELISSA OU
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