985
FXUS21 KWNC 281827
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT MAY 28 2026
SYNOPSIS: TODAY’S PRIMARY HAZARD CONCERN IS THE INCREASED POTENTIAL OF EXTREME
HEAT ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS)
ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THESE REGIONS. A MODERATE
RISK (40-60% CHANCE) OF EXTREME HEAT IS DESIGNATED FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS, UPPER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND GREAT LAKES REGION
AT THE BEGINNING OF WEEK-2, WITH A SLIGHTLY BROADER AREA OF SLIGHT RISK THROUGH
JUNE 11. ANOMALOUSLY WARM TEMPERATURES, AND ANTECEDENT AND ANTICIPATED DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST INCREASES THE LIKELIHOOD OF RAPID ONSET
DROUGHT (ROD) FOR THE UPPER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES
REGION. MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IS PREDICTED TO LINGER ACROSS THE WEST COAST
AND SOUTHWEST FROM THE END OF WEEK-1 INTO THE ONSET OF WEEK-2 BEFORE SHIFTING
EASTWARD TO THE CENTRAL CONUS, CONTINUING THE RISK OF EXTREME HEAT FOR THE
CENTRAL VALLEY OF CALIFORNIA AND PARTS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FOR JUNE 5. HIGH
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE CALIFORNIA COAST FROM BEGINNING TO MID
WEEK-2.
HAZARDS
MODERATE RISK OF EXTREME HEAT ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS,
UPPER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND GREAT LAKES REGION, SAT-MON, JUNE 6-8.
SLIGHT RISK OF EXTREME HEAT FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS,
UPPER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS, AND GREAT LAKES REGION, SAT-THU,
JUNE 6-11.
SLIGHT RISK OF EXTREME HEAT FOR THE CENTRAL VALLEY OF CALIFORNIA AND PARTS OF
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, FRI, JUNE 5.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS FOR PARTS OF THE CALIFORNIA COAST, THU-MON, JUNE 4-8.
POSSIBLE RAPID ONSET DROUGHT FOR PARTS OF THE UPPER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR SUNDAY MAY 31 - THURSDAY JUNE 04:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR FRIDAY JUNE 05 - THURSDAY JUNE 11: MID-LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO BE
EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND SOUTHWEST FROM THE END OF WEEK-1
INTO THE ONSET OF WEEK-2. THIS FAVORS CONTINUANCE OF THE SLIGHT RISK OF EXTREME
HEAT FOR THE CENTRAL VALLEY OF CALIFORNIA AND PARTS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST,
JUNE 5. THE PROBABILISTIC EXTREMES TOOLS (PETS) INDICATE AT LEAST A 20 TO 30%
CHANCE OF TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING THE 85TH PERCENTILE CLIMATOLOGICALLY AND
95-100 DEG F. THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER’S (WPC) EXPERIMENTAL PROBABILISTIC
HEATRISK TOOL SHOWS ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR MAJOR OR HIGHER HEAT RISK LEVELS.
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST AT THE START OF WEEK-2 IS ANTICIPATED TO
SHIFT EASTWARD TO THE CENTRAL CONUS EARLY IN THE PERIOD, ACCOMPANIED BY THE
SHIFT IN ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR EXTREME HEAT. MULTIPLE MODEL ENSEMBLE MEANS
INDICATE MORE AMPLIFIED RIDGING DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. RECENT DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE POSITIVE
500 HPA HEIGHT NORMALIZED ANOMALIES REACHING GREATER THAN 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
THIS PATTERN AMPLIFICATION TRANSLATES TO INCREASED SIGNALS FOR HEAT ACROSS THE
NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS AND ASSOCIATED TOOLS. THEREFORE A
MODERATE RISK (40-60% CHANCE) OF EXTREME HEAT IS DESIGNATED FOR PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS, UPPER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND GREAT
LAKES REGION, JUNE 6-8. THE PETS INDICATE AT LEAST A 20 TO 30% CHANCE OF
TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING THE 85TH PERCENTILE CLIMATOLOGICALLY AND 90 DEG F (85
DEG F ACROSS MORE NORTHERN REGIONS), WITH UNCALIBRATED GUIDANCE INDICATING
AREAS FURTHER NORTH EXCEEDING 90 DEG F. A BROADER AREA OF SLIGHT RISK IS
HIGHLIGHTED FOR THESE REGIONS IN ADDITION TO THE OHIO VALLEY, JUNE 6-11.
SOUTHERLY ENHANCED MOIST FLOW IS POSSIBLE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FORMS ACROSS
THE EAST, RESULTING IN HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY WHICH COULD RESULT IN HIGHER
HEAT INDEX TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE RISK AREA. RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS 2-M
DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 70S (DEG F) IN THE EXTREME TEMPERATURE RISK
AREAS. THE EXPERIMENTAL WPC HEATRISK TOOL INDICATES INCREASED POTENTIAL OF
MAJOR OR HIGHER HEAT RISK LEVELS ACROSS THE HIGHLIGHTED RISK REGIONS.
FOLLOWING A VERY WET SPRING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY, PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN LIMITED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS. THE MOST
RECENT RELEASE OF THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR SHOWS EXPANSION OF ABNORMALLY DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION. WITH ANTICIPATED ANOMALOUS WARM
TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH DRY SOILS, AND ANTECEDENT AND ANTICIPATED DRY
CONDITIONS THERE ARE ELEVATED CHANCES FOR RAPID ONSET DROUGHT (ROD). A POSSIBLE
RISK OF ROD IS POSTED FOR PARTS OF THE UPPER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
GREAT LAKES REGION.
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY SET UP ACROSS PARTS OF COASTAL CALIFORNIA DUE TO
A THERMAL LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST DUE TO
INTENSE SOLAR HEATING AND ADJACENT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SHORE OF
COASTAL CALIFORNIA. THIS SET UP SUPPORTS A SLIGHT RISK OF EPISODIC HIGH WINDS
FOR PARTS OF COASTAL CALIFORNIA JUNE 4-8. THE PETS INDICATE AT LEAST A 20%
CHANCE OF WIND SPEEDS EXCEEDING THE 85TH PERCENTILE AND 25 MPH, FURTHER
SUPPORTED BY UNCALIBRATED GUIDANCE SHOWING INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS
EXCEEDING 34 MPH.
THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION RISK IS DISCONTINUED IN TODAY’S OUTLOOK ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST DUE TO TIMING OUT OF THE HAZARD AND UNCERTAINTY OF WHERE ENHANCED
RAINFALL MAY OCCUR DURING WEEK-2.
IN ALASKA, RIVER ICE BREAKUP SEASON IS ENDING, BUT MANY RIVERS NORTH OF THE
BROOKS RANGE REMAIN ICEBOUND. RIVER BREAKUP FLOODING CAN OCCUR WITH LITTLE OR
NO NOTICE AS CONDITIONS ON FROZEN RIVERS CAN CHANGE QUICKLY, SO PLEASE CHECK
WITH THE ALASKA PACIFIC RIVER FORECAST CENTER FOR THE LATEST CONDITIONS AND
ADVISORIES.
FORECASTER: MELISSA OU
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