571
FXUS21 KWNC 051946
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT JUNE 05 2026
SYNOPSIS: MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA IS
EXPECTED TO DEAMPLIFY WHILE PUSHING NORTHEASTWARD EARLY WEEK-2, LEAVING A
LINGERING POTENTIAL FOR EXTREME HEAT ACROSS MUCH OF THE EAST COAST. PREVAILING
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES, COMBINED WITH INSUFFICIENT RAINFALL AND ANTECEDENT
DRYNESS, INCREASES THE POTENTIAL FOR RAPID ONSET DROUGHT (ROD) OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. FARTHER SOUTH, A SOUTHERLY FETCH OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHEAST FOR MOST OF WEEK-2 IS EXPECTED TO ABET LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL DUE TO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, RESULTING IN A SLIGHT RISK OF
HEAVY PRECIPITATION THERE. ADDITIONALLY, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP IN
THE GULF AND MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST, INCREASING THE INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF
HEAVY RAINFALL IN ITS VICINITY. MEANWHILE, AN AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL RIDGE ALONG
THE WEST COAST IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR EXTREME HEAT FOR MUCH
OF THE WEST BEFORE WEAKENING AND RETROGRADING LATER IN THE PERIOD.
HAZARDS
NO HAZARDS POSTED.SLIGHT RISK OF EXTREME HEAT ACROSS THE LOWER NORTHEAST,
MID-ATLANTIC, AND SOUTHEAST, SAT-SUN, JUN 13-14.
SLIGHT RISK OF EXTREME HEAT IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, CALIFORNIA VALLEYS,
PACIFIC NORTHWEST, AND NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, SAT-WED, JUN 13-17.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST AND
THE ADJACENT SOUTHEAST, SAT-THU, JUN 13-18.
RAPID ONSET DROUGHT POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS AND
NORTHWESTERN INDIANA.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR MONDAY JUNE 08 - FRIDAY JUNE 12:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR SATURDAY JUNE 13 - FRIDAY JUNE 19: AT THE START OF WEEK-2, THE MODELS ALL
DEPICT A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA THAT IS IN THE PROCESS OF
DEAMPLIFYING AND PUSHING EASTWARD. AS A RESULT, UNUSUALLY HOT WEATHER
ANTICIPATED FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS DURING WEEK-1 IS EXPECTED TO
MODERATE EARLY WEEK-2, BUT A LINGERING RISK OF EXTREME HEAT IS ANTICIPATED
DURING THE FIRST TWO DAYS OF THE PERIOD ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE LARGEST
POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHEAST, BUT THE
MODEL FORECASTS ARE ONLY IN FAIR AGREEMENT REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE
HEIGHT FIELD AROUND EASTERN NORTH AMERICA EARLY WEEK-2, AND THE DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS INTRODUCE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE LOCATION AND
DURATION OF EXTREME HEAT. THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS AT THE START OF WEEK-2
HIGHLIGHTS THE POTENTIAL FOR NUMEROUS DAILY RECORD HIGHS ACROSS EASTERN OHIO,
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN APPALACHIANS, AND THE NORTHEAST ON DAY 8 (SAT JUN 13),
BUT PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE FROM THE EUROPEAN ENSEMBLES SHOWS THE BEST CHANCES
FOR HAZARDOUS HEAT (ENHANCED BY ENHANCED HUMIDITY) ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHEAST. THE 12Z EUROPEAN DYNAMICAL MODEL (ECMWF) FROM YESTERDAY DEPICTED
TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 105 DEG F ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC, BUT THE ENSUING 0Z
RUN SHOWED THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURES FARTHER SOUTH, FROM SOUTHERN VIRGINIA
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND ADJACENT GEORGIA. IN ADDITION, THE PROBABILISTIC
EXTREMES TOOL (PET) FROM THE EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE (ECENS) DEPICTED A GREATER THAN
60 PERCENT CHANCE OF TEMPERATURES AMONG THE WARMEST 15 PERCENT OF CLIMATOLOGY
AT THE OUTSET OF WEEK-2 FROM UPSTATE NEW YORK THROUGH THE CAROLINAS, BUT THE
PETS FROM THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE (CMCE) AND GEFS ARE LESS ROBUST AND FARTHER
NORTH, WITH ODDS OF 30 TO 40 PERCENT COVERING THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. THE UNCERTAINTIES OF INTENSITY AND LOCATION PRECLUDE POSTING ANY
MODERATE RISK, THUS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXTREME HEAT IS HIGHLIGHTED FROM GEORGIA
THROUGH UPSTATE NEW YORK AND PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND FOR THE FIRST TWO DAYS OF
WEEK-2. MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO DROP CLOSER TO NORMAL AFTER THAT WITH
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH ENCROACHING FROM THE WEST, ENDING THE EXTREME HEAT RISK.
FOR THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS, PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL
OVER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND ADJACENT PARTS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. RECENTLY, THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS HIGHLIGHTED
ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THIS REGION, AND THE WEEKLY ISSUE RELEASED
THIS MORNING INTRODUCED SOME MODERATE DROUGHT IN PORTIONS OF THIS AREA. THE
WEEK-2 PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK DEPICTS MARGINALLY ENHANCED CHANCES FOR
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THIS AREA, BUT THE EXPECTED HOT WEATHER AND
ASSOCIATED INCREASES IN EVAPORATIVE MOISTURE LOSSES, IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
ELEVATED HUMAN AND ECOLOGICAL DEMAND FOR SURFACE WATER INHERENT TO SUMMERTIME,
MAKES IT LIKELY THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT TO OFFSET SURFACE
MOISTURE LOSSES. AS A RESULT, A POTENTIAL FOR RAPID-ONSET DROUGHT (ROD) IS
MAINTAINED ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWESTERN INDIANA. FARTHER
IN THE AREAS WHERE DROUGHT WAS INTRODUCED THIS WEEK, SOME RELATIVELY QUICK
DETERIORATION INTO MORE SEVERE DROUGHT CLASSIFICATIONS IS POSSIBLE.
AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE DECAYS AND DEPARTS FROM THE EASTERN CONUS, HIGH PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
WEEK-2. THIS ESTABLISHES A PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FETCH OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE GULF AND SOUTHEAST. THIS AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE UNDER
BROADLY CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW BETWEEN THE RIDGE DEPARTING TO THE NORTHEAST
AND A TROUGH GRADUALLY DIGGING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES,
ESTABLISHING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
WITH AMPLE MOISTURE BEING PULLED NORTHWARD FROM THE TROPICS, ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOP HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY INTENSE RAINFALL, SUPPORTING
A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST
REGION AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST. IN ADDITION, A SUBSET OF MODELS
CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT SOMEWHERE IN THE GULF
THAT EVENTUALLY MOVES INLAND. IF THAT OCCURS, IT WOULD INDUCE HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION THAT IS MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS AREAS NEAR THE TRACK OF THE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER. MODELS, HOWEVER, HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THIS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT, AND IN CASES WHERE IT IS DEPICTED, ITS INTENSITY AND
TRACK VARY FROM RUN-TO-RUN AND MODEL-TO-MODEL, PROVIDING LOW CONFIDENCE IN
FORECASTS FOR ANY SPECIFIC TIME AND LOCATION. BUT EVEN WITH HIGHLY UNCERTAIN
SPECIFICS, THESE FACTORS GENERALLY SUPPORT A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS THE REGION FOR MOST OF WEEK-2.
MOST TOOLS DEPICT AN AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL RIDGE NEAR THE WESTERN CONUS COASTLINE
AT THE START OF WEEK-2, WITH THE LARGEST POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES
EXTENDING FROM THE COASTAL PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE ADJACENT PACIFIC. THIS
RIDGE EITHER DEAMPLIFIES IN PLACE WITH TIME (CMCE MEAN SOLUTION) OR RETROGRADES
TOWARD THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC (ECENS AND GEFS MEANS). EITHER WAY,
ABOVE-NORMAL BUT SLOWLY DECREASING 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE
WEST OVER THE COURSE OF WEEK-2, RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF HOT WEATHER PEAKING
AROUND DAY 9 (JUN 14) AND LINGERING UNTIL LATER WEEK-2. THE ECENS MEAN IS
SOMEWHAT MORE ANOMALOUS WITH THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTH THAN THE GEFS AND
CMCE MEANS, WHICH IS REFLECTED IN THE PETS. THE ECENS PET SHOWS 40 TO 60
PERCENT CHANCES FOR TEMPERATURES REACHING THE TOP 15 PERCENT OF CLIMATOLOGICAL
OCCURRENCES FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA NORTHWARD, WITH 20 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCES
INDICATED FARTHER SOUTH. IN CONTRAST, PETS FROM THE CMCE AND GEFS DEPICT 30 TO
40 PERCENT CHANCES ALONG THE FULL LENGTH OF THE WESTERN SEABOARD INTO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. ECENS OUTPUT INDICATES HIGH CHANCES
(OVER 70 PERCENT) FOR TEMPERATURES TO EXCEED 100 DEG F IN THE DESERTS AND THE
CALIFORNIA VALLEYS, WITH LOW CHANCES (10 TO 25 PERCENT) FOR HIGHS TO REACH 110
DEG F THERE AND APPROACH 100 DEG F AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON AND
SOUTHWESTERN IDAHO. OTHER ENSEMBLES ARE LESS ROBUST, BUT STILL SHOW ENHANCED
CHANCES FOR EXTREME HEAT. WITH MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ONLY GRADUALLY DECREASING OVER
THE COURSE OF WEEK-2, THE SLIGHT RISK OF EXTREME HEAT IS EXPECTED TO LINGER
UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD.
IN ALASKA, RIVER ICE BREAKUP SEASON IS ENDING, BUT MANY RIVERS NORTH OF THE
BROOKS RANGE REMAIN ICEBOUND. RIVER BREAKUP FLOODING CAN OCCUR WITH LITTLE OR
NO NOTICE AS CONDITIONS ON FROZEN RIVERS CAN CHANGE QUICKLY, SO PLEASE CHECK
WITH THE ALASKA PACIFIC RIVER FORECAST CENTER FOR THE LATEST CONDITIONS AND
ADVISORIES.
FORECASTER: RICH TINKER
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