445
FXUS21 KWNC 051953
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT JUNE 05 2026
SYNOPSIS: MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA IS
EXPECTED TO DEAMPLIFY WHILE
PUSHING NORTHEASTWARD EARLY WEEK-2, LEAVING A LINGERING POTENTIAL FOR EXTREME
HEAT ACROSS
MUCH OF THE EAST COAST. PREVAILING ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES, COMBINED WITH
INSUFFICIENT
RAINFALL AND ANTECEDENT DRYNESS, INCREASES THE POTENTIAL FOR RAPID ONSET
DROUGHT (ROD) OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. FARTHER SOUTH, A SOUTHERLY FETCH OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE
INTO THE SOUTHEAST FOR MOST OF WEEK-2 IS EXPECTED TO ABET LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL DUE TO
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, RESULTING IN A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION THERE.
ADDITIONALLY, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP IN THE GULF AND MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHEAST,
INCREASING THE INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF HEAVY RAINFALL IN ITS VICINITY.
MEANWHILE, AN
AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE
POTENTIAL FOR
EXTREME HEAT FOR MUCH OF THE WEST BEFORE WEAKENING AND RETROGRADING LATER IN
THE PERIOD.
HAZARDS
SLIGHT RISK OF EXTREME HEAT ACROSS THE LOWER NORTHEAST, MID-ATLANTIC, AND
SOUTHEAST, SAT-
SUN, JUN 13-14.
SLIGHT RISK OF EXTREME HEAT IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, CALIFORNIA VALLEYS,
PACIFIC NORTHWEST,
AND NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, SAT-WED, JUN 13-17.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST AND
THE ADJACENT
SOUTHEAST, SAT-THU, JUN 13-18.
RAPID ONSET DROUGHT POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS AND
NORTHWESTERN INDIANA.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR MONDAY JUNE 08 - FRIDAY JUNE 12:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR SATURDAY JUNE 13 - FRIDAY JUNE 19: AT THE START OF WEEK-2, THE MODELS ALL
DEPICT A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA
THAT IS IN THE PROCESS OF DEAMPLIFYING AND PUSHING EASTWARD. AS A RESULT,
UNUSUALLY HOT
WEATHER ANTICIPATED FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS DURING WEEK-1 IS
EXPECTED TO
MODERATE EARLY WEEK-2, BUT A LINGERING RISK OF EXTREME HEAT IS ANTICIPATED
DURING THE
FIRST TWO DAYS OF THE PERIOD ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE LARGEST POSITIVE
500-HPA
HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHEAST, BUT THE MODEL FORECASTS ARE
ONLY IN FAIR
AGREEMENT REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE HEIGHT FIELD AROUND EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA EARLY
WEEK-2, AND THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS INTRODUCE UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE
LOCATION AND DURATION OF EXTREME HEAT. THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS AT THE
START OF WEEK-2
HIGHLIGHTS THE POTENTIAL FOR NUMEROUS DAILY RECORD HIGHS ACROSS EASTERN OHIO,
THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN APPALACHIANS, AND THE NORTHEAST ON DAY 8 (SAT JUN 13), BUT
PROBABILISTIC
GUIDANCE FROM THE EUROPEAN ENSEMBLES SHOWS THE BEST CHANCES FOR HAZARDOUS HEAT
(ENHANCED
BY ENHANCED HUMIDITY) ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST. THE 12Z EUROPEAN
DYNAMICAL
MODEL (ECMWF) FROM YESTERDAY DEPICTED TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 105 DEG F ACROSS
THE MID-
ATLANTIC, BUT THE ENSUING 0Z RUN SHOWED THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURES FARTHER SOUTH,
FROM
SOUTHERN VIRGINIA THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND ADJACENT GEORGIA. IN ADDITION, THE
PROBABILISTIC EXTREMES TOOL (PET) FROM THE EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE (ECENS) DEPICTED A
GREATER
THAN 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF TEMPERATURES AMONG THE WARMEST 15 PERCENT OF
CLIMATOLOGY AT THE
OUTSET OF WEEK-2 FROM UPSTATE NEW YORK THROUGH THE CAROLINAS, BUT THE PETS FROM
THE
CANADIAN ENSEMBLE (CMCE) AND GEFS ARE LESS ROBUST AND FARTHER NORTH, WITH ODDS
OF 30 TO 40
PERCENT COVERING THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE UNCERTAINTIES
OF INTENSITY
AND LOCATION PRECLUDE POSTING ANY MODERATE RISK, THUS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXTREME
HEAT IS
HIGHLIGHTED FROM GEORGIA THROUGH UPSTATE NEW YORK AND PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND
FOR THE
FIRST TWO DAYS OF WEEK-2. MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO DROP CLOSER TO
NORMAL AFTER
THAT WITH A MID-LEVEL TROUGH ENCROACHING FROM THE WEST, ENDING THE EXTREME HEAT
RISK.
FOR THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS, PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL
OVER
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND ADJACENT PARTS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
RECENTLY, THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS HIGHLIGHTED ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THIS
REGION, AND THE WEEKLY ISSUE RELEASED THIS MORNING INTRODUCED SOME MODERATE
DROUGHT IN
PORTIONS OF THIS AREA. THE WEEK-2 PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK DEPICTS MARGINALLY
ENHANCED
CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THIS AREA, BUT THE EXPECTED HOT
WEATHER AND
ASSOCIATED INCREASES IN EVAPORATIVE MOISTURE LOSSES, IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
ELEVATED
HUMAN AND ECOLOGICAL DEMAND FOR SURFACE WATER INHERENT TO SUMMERTIME, MAKES IT
LIKELY THAT
THE PRECIPITATION WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT TO OFFSET SURFACE MOISTURE LOSSES. AS
A RESULT, A
POTENTIAL FOR RAPID-ONSET DROUGHT (ROD) IS MAINTAINED ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN
ILLINOIS AND
NORTHWESTERN INDIANA. FARTHER IN THE AREAS WHERE DROUGHT WAS INTRODUCED THIS
WEEK, SOME
RELATIVELY QUICK DETERIORATION INTO MORE SEVERE DROUGHT CLASSIFICATIONS IS
POSSIBLE.
AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE DECAYS AND DEPARTS FROM THE EASTERN CONUS, HIGH PRESSURE
IS
EXPECTED TO SETTLE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
WEEK-2. THIS
ESTABLISHES A PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FETCH OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE GULF
AND SOUTHEAST. THIS AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE UNDER BROADLY CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL
FLOW BETWEEN
THE RIDGE DEPARTING TO THE NORTHEAST AND A TROUGH GRADUALLY DIGGING INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES, ESTABLISHING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE BEING PULLED NORTHWARD FROM THE TROPICS, ANY
THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOP HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY INTENSE RAINFALL, SUPPORTING
A SLIGHT
RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST REGION
AND ADJACENT
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST. IN ADDITION, A SUBSET OF MODELS CONTINUES TO SHOW
SOME SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT SOMEWHERE IN THE GULF THAT EVENTUALLY MOVES INLAND. IF
THAT
OCCURS, IT WOULD INDUCE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION THAT IS MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS
AREAS NEAR
THE TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER. MODELS, HOWEVER, HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT
IN SHOWING
THIS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT, AND IN CASES WHERE IT IS DEPICTED, ITS INTENSITY
AND TRACK
VARY FROM RUN-TO-RUN AND MODEL-TO-MODEL, PROVIDING LOW CONFIDENCE IN FORECASTS
FOR ANY
SPECIFIC TIME AND LOCATION. BUT EVEN WITH HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SPECIFICS, THESE
FACTORS
GENERALLY SUPPORT A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION FOR MOST OF
WEEK-2.
MOST TOOLS DEPICT AN AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL RIDGE NEAR THE WESTERN CONUS COASTLINE
AT THE
START OF WEEK-2, WITH THE LARGEST POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES EXTENDING
FROM THE
COASTAL PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE ADJACENT PACIFIC. THIS RIDGE EITHER
DEAMPLIFIES IN
PLACE WITH TIME (CMCE MEAN SOLUTION) OR RETROGRADES TOWARD THE CENTRAL NORTH
PACIFIC
(ECENS AND GEFS MEANS). EITHER WAY, ABOVE-NORMAL BUT SLOWLY DECREASING 500-HPA
HEIGHTS ARE
ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE WEST OVER THE COURSE OF WEEK-2, RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF
HOT
WEATHER PEAKING AROUND DAY 9 (JUN 14) AND LINGERING UNTIL LATER WEEK-2. THE
ECENS MEAN IS
SOMEWHAT MORE ANOMALOUS WITH THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTH THAN THE GEFS AND
CMCE MEANS,
WHICH IS REFLECTED IN THE PETS. THE ECENS PET SHOWS 40 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCES
FOR
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE TOP 15 PERCENT OF CLIMATOLOGICAL OCCURRENCES FROM
NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA NORTHWARD, WITH 20 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCES INDICATED FARTHER SOUTH. IN
CONTRAST,
PETS FROM THE CMCE AND GEFS DEPICT 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCES ALONG THE FULL
LENGTH OF THE
WESTERN SEABOARD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. ECENS OUTPUT
INDICATES
HIGH CHANCES (OVER 70 PERCENT) FOR TEMPERATURES TO EXCEED 100 DEG F IN THE
DESERTS AND THE
CALIFORNIA VALLEYS, WITH LOW CHANCES (10 TO 25 PERCENT) FOR HIGHS TO REACH 110
DEG F THERE
AND APPROACH 100 DEG F AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON AND SOUTHWESTERN
IDAHO.
OTHER ENSEMBLES ARE LESS ROBUST, BUT STILL SHOW ENHANCED CHANCES FOR EXTREME
HEAT. WITH
MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ONLY GRADUALLY DECREASING OVER THE COURSE OF WEEK-2, THE
SLIGHT RISK OF
EXTREME HEAT IS EXPECTED TO LINGER UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD.
IN ALASKA, RIVER ICE BREAKUP SEASON IS ENDING, BUT MANY RIVERS NORTH OF THE
BROOKS RANGE
REMAIN ICEBOUND. RIVER BREAKUP FLOODING CAN OCCUR WITH LITTLE OR NO NOTICE AS
CONDITIONS
ON FROZEN RIVERS CAN CHANGE QUICKLY, SO PLEASE CHECK WITH THE ALASKA PACIFIC
RIVER
FORECAST CENTER FOR THE LATEST CONDITIONS AND ADVISORIES.
FORECASTER: RICH TINKER
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