112
FXUS21 KWNC 161800
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT JUNE 16 2026
SYNOPSIS: PERIODIC HIGH MID-LEVEL PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) FAVORS UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WEST
AND ALONG THE GULF COAST, POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN EXTREME HEAT FOR MANY
LOCATIONS. A NEARLY STATIONARY AREA OF MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES IS FAVORED TO PRODUCE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN CONUS, SOME OF WHICH COULD REACH HAZARDOUS CRITERIA, ALTHOUGH THERE
IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME TO DESIGNATE SPECIFIC ASSOCIATED AREAS
WITH A HEAVY PRECIPITATION RISK.
HAZARDS
SLIGHT RISK OF EXTREME HEAT FOR FLORIDA AND ADJACENT REGIONS, WED-TUE, JUN
24-30.
SLIGHT RISK OF EXTREME HEAT FOR MUCH OF TEXAS, THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, AND
CALIFORNIA CENTRAL VALLEY, WED-TUE, JUN 24-30.
SLIGHT RISK OF EXTREME HEAT FOR THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST, WED-FRI, JUN 24-26.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR FRIDAY JUNE 19 - TUESDAY JUNE 23:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR WEDNESDAY JUNE 24 - TUESDAY JUNE 30: MULTIPLE MODEL ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO
DEPICT A SOMEWHAT STATIONARY PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA DURING THE WEEK-2
PERIOD, WITH RIDGING GENERALLY INDICATED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND TROUGHING
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THERE IS SOME MODEL UNCERTAINTY WITH THE GEFS BEING THE
OUTLIER OF A TRANSITION TO TROUGHING ACROSS THE WEST BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
PERIOD. REGARDLESS OF MODEL DIFFERENCES THE GENERAL PATTERN IS LIKELY TO
RESULT IN UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WEST AND BRING POTENTIALLY
EXTREME HEAT ALONG THE U.S.-MEXICO BORDER, AS WELL AS MOST OF TEXAS AND THE
CENTRAL VALLEY OF CALIFORNIA. THE PROBABILISTIC EXTREMES TOOLS (PETS) FROM
MULTIPLE ENSEMBLES INDICATE AT LEAST A 20% CHANCE OF MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
EXCEEDING 100 DEG F ALONG THE RIO GRANDE AND IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY OF
CALIFORNIA, AND 110F FOR THE MOJAVE DESERT. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
GET QUITE AS HIGH FOR CENTRAL TEXAS BUT VERY HIGH DEWPOINTS ARE LIKELY AS A
RESULT OF ROBUST INFLOW OF GULF MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THEREFORE A SLIGHT RISK OF EXTREME HEAT IS POSTED FOR THESE REGIONS, VALID FOR
ALL OF WEEK-2 (JUN 24-30). FURTHER NORTH THE PETS INDICATE AT LEAST A 20%
CHANCE OF MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING 95 DEG F FOR INTERIOR WASHINGTON AND
OREGON, AS WELL AS THE LOWER SNAKE RIVER VALLEY EARLY IN WEEK-2. WHILE HUMIDITY
IS NOT LIKELY TO BE MUCH OF A FACTOR, THIS IS WELL ABOVE THE 85TH
CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE AND WITHIN HEAT CRITERIA FOR THE REGION. TODAY'S
MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE A POTENTIAL MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD, SO THE VALID PERIOD FOR THE SLIGHT RISK OF EXTREME HEAT ISSUED
FOR THIS REGION IS SHORTENED TO COVER JUN 24-26 ONLY.
ENHANCED SUBTROPICAL RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND GREATER ANTILLES IS
INDICATED BY MULTIPLE ENSEMBLES, FAVORING ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
FLORIDA.MODELS FAVOR THIS ENHANCED RIDGING TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK, RESULTING IN ANOMALOUSLY WARM TEMPERATURES. WHILE MAXIMUM ACTUAL
TEMPERATURES ARE NOT THAT LARGE, VERY HIGH HUMIDITY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PUSH
APPARENT TEMPERATURES INTO HAZARDOUS CRITERIA. ADDITIONALLY, RECORD TO
NEAR-RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED BY THE NATIONAL BLEND OF
MODELS, BRINGING VERY LITTLE RELIEF FROM HEAT EFFECTS DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS.
GIVEN ALL THIS, A SLIGHT RISK OF EXTREME HEAT IS POSTED FOR ALL OF FLORIDA AND
ADJACENT AREAS, VALID FOR THE WHOLE WEEK-2 FORECAST PERIOD.
FORECASTER: DANNY BARANDIARAN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page