801
FXUS21 KWNC 051736
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT JULY 05 2026
SYNOPSIS: STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS OCCURRING
NEAR THE PEAK OF SUMMER BRINGS THE RISK OF EXTREME HEAT FOR MUCH OF THE
WESTERN, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHEASTERN CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) THROUGHOUT WEEK-2.
HAZARDS
MODERATE RISK OF EXTREME HEAT FOR MUCH OF THE GREAT BASIN, DESERT SOUTHWEST,
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS, AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
CENTRAL PLAINS, MON-FRI, JUL 13-17.
SLIGHT RISK OF EXTREME HEAT FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS, AS WELL
AS THE GULF COAST, AND MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S., MON-SUN, JUL 13-19.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR WEDNESDAY JULY 08 - SUNDAY JULY 12:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR MONDAY JULY 13 - SUNDAY JULY 19: MULTIPLE MODEL ENSEMBLES DEPICT ANOMALOUS
MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING QUICKLY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS EARLY IN WEEK-2,
INDICATING 500-HPA HEIGHTS REACHING A MAXIMUM NEAR 600-DM OVER COLORADO WITH A
CLOSED 594-DM CONTOUR COVERING MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CONUS AND
REMAINING QUITE AMPLIFIED THROUGH THE END OF WEEK-2. THIS PATTERN IS HIGHLY
FAVORABLE FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE LOWER 48, AND WHEN OCCURRING
NEAR THE PEAK OF SUMMER BRINGS A WIDESPREAD RISK OF EXTREME HEAT, PARTICULARLY
FOR THE WESTERN CONUS. GENERALLY SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE GULF OF AMERICA IS
FAVORED TO BOOST DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND EASTERN U.S., RESULTING IN
POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS HEAT INDEX VALUES FOR MOST OF THE REST OF THE COUNTRY.
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORED FOR THE GREAT LAKES, OHIO VALLEY,
AND NORTHEAST U.S., BUT A WEAK YET PERSISTENT TROUGH DEPICTED OVER HUDSON BAY
IS LIKELY TO KEEP MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDICES BELOW HAZARDOUS
CRITERIA FOR THESE AREAS.
THE POTENTIAL FOR EXTREME HEAT IS SUPPORTED BY A VARIETY OF FORECAST TOOLS. THE
PROBABILISTIC EXTREMES TOOLS (PETS) FROM THE GEFS AND ECMWF BOTH INDICATE A 40%
CHANCE OF MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TO EXCEED THE 85TH CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE FOR
PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN EARLY IN WEEK-2 AND AT LEAST A 20% CHANCE FOR ALL
BUT THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CONUS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
GEFS IS MORE BULLISH, INITIALLY INDICATING A 60% CHANCE OVER THE GREAT BASIN,
AND GENERALLY LARGER COVERAGE OF 40% CHANCES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF WEEK-2. THE
UNCALIBRATED EXTREME HEAT TOOL SHOWS WIDESPREAD 60% OR GREATER CHANCES OF
EITHER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE OR HEAT INDEX TO EXCEED THE 95TH PERCENTILE AT SOME
POINT DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD, AS WELL AS HEAT WAVE ONSET TO OCCUR EARLY IN
WEEK-2 AND HAVE A DURATION LASTING AT LEAST 3 DAYS. GOING WITH BEST MODEL
CONSENSUS, A MODERATE RISK OF EXTREME HEAT IS POSTED FOR MUCH OF THE GREAT
BASIN, DESERT SOUTHWEST, AND SOUTHERN PLAINS, AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL PLAINS, VALID JUL 13-17. A SLIGHT RISK OF
EXTREME HEAT IS ALSO POSTED FOR ALL BUT NORTHERNMOST PORTIONS OF THE GREAT
PLAINS, AS WELL AS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THE GULF COAST, AND MOST OF
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COVERING ALL OF WEEK-2.
FORECASTER: DANNY BARANDIARAN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page