999
FXUS21 KWNC 251854
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT JULY 25 2026
SYNOPSIS: STRONG MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BRING A PROLONGED HEAT
WAVE TO THE WEST THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF AUGUST. ANTECEDENT DRYNESS ALONG WITH
THE LIKELIHOOD OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
DURING THE NEXT TWO WEEKS SUPPORTS AN INCREASED RISK FOR THE RAPID ONSET OF
DROUGHT TO PARTS OF THE GREAT PLAINS AND CORN BELT. A MOISTURE SURGE ASSOCIATED
WITH A TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACKING NORTHWEST ACROSS THE EAST PACIFIC ALONG WITH
THE ONGOING/PREDICTED HEAT WAVE FAVORS A RENEWAL OF AN ENHANCED MONSOON DURING
EARLY AUGUST. POSSIBLE SURFACE LOWS FORMING IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES MAY
SUPPORT PERIODS OF HIGH WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD, WHICH MAY LEAD TO ENHANCED WILDFIRE RISK WHERE HOT AND
DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED.
HAZARDS
HIGH RISK OF EXTREME HEAT FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST, GREAT BASIN, AND
CALIFORNIA, SUN, AUG 2.
MODERATE RISK OF EXTREME HEAT FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, SOUTHWEST,
GREAT BASIN, ROCKIES, AND CALIFORNIA, SUN-WED, AUG 2-5.
SLIGHT RISK OF EXTREME HEAT FOR MOST OF THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS AND
SOUTHEAST U.S., SUN-SAT, AUG 2-8.
SLIGHT RISK OF EXTREME HEAT FOR THE MIDWEST, TUE-WED, AUG 4-5.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST, SUN-MON, AUG 2-3.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, SUN-SAT,
AUG 2-8.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS, SUN-TUE, AUG 2-4.
RAPID ONSET DROUGHT (ROD) POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF THE GREAT PLAINS AND CORN BELT.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR TUESDAY JULY 28 - SATURDAY AUGUST 01:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR SUNDAY AUGUST 02 - SATURDAY AUGUST 08: THE GEFS AND ECENS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT AND REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED 500-HPA RIDGE
PEAKING IN STRENGTH BY THE END OF WEEK-1 WHEN IT BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE
WESTERN CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) BEFORE BECOMING WEAKER BY THE START OF WEEK-2.
THIS ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A LINGERING HIGH RISK (>60%
CHANCE) OF EXTREME HEAT FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST, GREAT BASIN, AND
CALIFORNIA, AUG 2, WITH THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN BEING REMOVED FROM THE HIGH
RISK AND TRIMMING PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A MODERATE RISK (40-60% CHANCE)
IS HIGHLIGHTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, SOUTHWEST, GREAT BASIN,
ROCKIES, AND CALIFORNIA, AUG 2-5, WHICH ALSO HAS SLIGHTLY LESS COVERAGE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. A SLIGHT RISK (20-40% CHANCE) IS
DESIGNATED FOR MOST OF THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS AND SOUTHEAST U.S.,
WITH PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS REMOVED FROM THE RISK AREA. HEAT TOOLS
INDICATE GREATER THAN 30-40% CHANCES OF ACTUAL TEMPERATURES OR HEAT INDEX
VALUES EXCEEDING 105 DEG F ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT PLAINS, DESERT SOUTHWEST,
TEXAS, AND CALIFORNIA VALLEY, WITH THE GEFS SHOWING HIGHER VALUES OF 110 DEG F.
THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS INDICATES NEAR OR RECORD DAILY HIGHS FOR PARTS OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AT THE BEGINNING OF WEEK-2, AS WELL AS NEAR TO RECORD
NIGHTTIME LOWS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS, PROVIDING LITTLE TO NO
RELIEF IN THESE AREAS. TO THE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER, THERE IS
SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND RESULTING POTENTIAL
FOR EXTREME HEAT. IN GENERAL THE MODELS ARE LESS FAVORABLE COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY OF A LONG DURATION OF EXTREME HEAT ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST.
THEREFORE THE SLIGHT RISK FOR EXTREME HEAT FOR THE MIDWEST IS DESIGNATED FOR
JUST A TWO-DAY PERIOD FOR NOW, AUG 4-5, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
ACCORDING TO THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR VALID JULY 21, ABNORMAL DRYNESS (D0) AND
MODERATE DROUGHT (D1) EXPANDED THIS PAST WEEK ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WHERE RAPID
ONSET DROUGHT (ROD) IS WELL UNDERWAY. INCREASING 30-DAY PRECIPITATION DEFICITS,
HIGH EVAPOTRANSPIRATION RATES, AND THE INCREASED CHANCE OF ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION DURING THE NEXT TWO WEEKS SUPPORT
AN ENHANCED RISK OF ROD ACROSS EVEN MORE OF THE GREAT PLAINS AND CORN BELT.
AS OF 9AM CST, TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE IS LOCATED WELL SOUTH OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO. THIS STORM FAVORS A MOISTURE SURGE NORTH FROM THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AS THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS NORTHWARD, THERE WOULD BE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF AN ENHANCED MONSOON. A
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS POSTED FOR THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WHERE THE
PETS GENERALLY DEPICT 3-DAY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS EXCEEDING THE 85TH PERCENTILE
AND 0.5 INCH THROUGHOUT WEEK-2.
A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME STATIONARY FROM THE COASTAL CAROLINAS SOUTHWEST
TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATER NEXT WEEK. THIS FRONT MAY ENHANCE CONVECTION AND
THE ECMWF PET SUPPORTS MAINTAINING A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR
PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST, PRIMARILY AUG 2, WITH LINGERING POTENTIAL AUG 3.
SURFACE LOWS MAY FORM IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD,
WHICH MAY BRING ENHANCED WINDS TO THE REGION. A SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS IS
DESIGNATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS, AUG 2-4, WHERE WIND GUSTS
COULD EXCEED 34 KTS (~39 MPH). GUSTY CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH HOT, DRY WEATHER
MAY ENHANCE WILDFIRE RISK FOR SOME OF THESE AREAS.
FORECASTER: MELISSA OU
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