811
FXUS21 KWNC 011826
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT OCTOBER 01 2026
SYNOPSIS: A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF COAST, ALONG WITH DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE IS FAVORED TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD HEAVY AND POTENTIALLY
HAZARDOUS PRECIPITATION AND HIGH WINDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT WEEK-2,
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE EASTERN GULF COAST EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. LOW
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND MID-LEVELS IS FAVORED TO TRANSIT FROM THE BERING
SEA TO THE GULF OF ALASKA, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WINDS AND HEAVY
PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE STATE.
HAZARDS
MODERATE RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GULF COAST AS
WELL AS MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA, FRI-SUN, OCT 9-11.
SLIGHT RISK OF EPISODIC HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR FLORIDA AND COASTAL PORTIONS OF
THE GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST INCLUDING THE COASTAL CAROLINAS, FRI-THU, OCT 9-15.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS FOR COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST, FRI-THU, OCT
9-15.
MODERATE RISK OF HIGH WINDS FOR COASTAL PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA, FRI-SUN, OCT 9-11.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN,
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA, THE ALASKA PENINSULA, AND ALEUTIANS,
FRI-TUE, OCT 9-13.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
ALASKA, FRI-TUE, OCT 9-13.
FLOODING POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN GULF COAST, AND NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
FLORIDA.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR SUNDAY OCTOBER 04 - THURSDAY OCTOBER 08:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR FRIDAY OCTOBER 09 - THURSDAY OCTOBER 15: THE GEFS AND ECENS CONTINUE TO BE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT, INDICATING AMPLIFYING 500-HPA RIDGING (TROUGHING) OVER
WESTERN (EASTERN) NORTH AMERICA DURING EARLY OCTOBER.
A STATIONARY FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO STRETCH FROM THE GULF COAST TO POTENTIALLY
NEAR OR ALONG THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST SOUTH OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE
EAST. THIS PATTERN SUPPORTS A PROLONGED PERIOD OF A SLIGHT RISK (20-40% CHANCE)
OF EPISODIC HEAVY RAINFALL FOR MUCH OF THE GULF COAST, FLORIDA, AND ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST UP TO THE OUTER BANKS THROUGHOUT WEEK-2. THE GEFS AND ECENS
PROBABILISTIC EXTREMES TOOLS (PETS) ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING AT LEAST A
20% CHANCE OF 3-DAY PRECIPITATION TOTALS EXCEEDING THE 85TH PERCENTILE AND ONE
INCH ACROSS THE DESIGNATED HAZARD AREA. A MODERATE RISK (40-60% CHANCE) OF
HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS DESIGNATED FOR THE EASTERN GULF COAST, NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL FLORIDA VALID OCT 9-11, WHERE THE ECENS AND GEFS PETS HAVE BOTH
INCREASED COVERAGE OF AT LEAST A 40% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING ACCUMULATED TOTALS OF
1 TO 1.5 INCHES IN 3-DAYS, FURTHER SUPPORTED BY UNCALIBRATED GUIDANCE.
FURTHERMORE, MULTIPLE MODELS ARE INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL
DISTURBANCES ORIGINATING IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THAT WOULD ENHANCE ONSHORE
FLOW, FURTHER ENHANCING HEAVY RAIN. ADDITIONALLY THIS PATTERN WITH SURFACE LOWS
NEAR OR ALONG THE GULF COAST MAY ALSO BRING ENHANCED WIND SPEEDS TO THE REGION,
SUPPORTING A SLIGHT RISK OF EPISODIC HIGH WINDS OR THE GULF COAST. MULTIPLE
PETS INDICATE AT LEAST A 20% CHANCE OF WIND SPEEDS EXCEEDING THE 85TH
PERCENTILE AND 25 MPH FURTHER SUPPORTED BY ENSEMBLES INDICATING A 20 TO 30%
CHANCE OF WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 34 KNOTS (ABOUT 39 MPH). ANTICIPATED HEAVY
RAINFALL AND STRONG ONSHORE FLOW, COMBINED WITH EXPECTED ENHANCED RAINFALL
TOTALS FROM WEEK-1, COULD LEAD TO WIDESPREAD POTENTIAL FOR URBAN AND FLASH
FLOODING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF COAST. THEREFORE A FLOODING POSSIBLE HAZARD IS
DESIGNATED FOR THE AFFECTED REGION, COINCIDING WITH THE MODERATE RISK OF HEAVY
PRECIPITATION HIGHLIGHTED ABOVE.
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED 500-HPA TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC IS LIKELY TO
PROMOTE A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS THAT TRACK FROM THE BERING SEA AND
ALASKA PENINSULA EASTWARD TO THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE GREATEST CONCERN REGARDING
IMPACTS WOULD BE FOR HIGH WINDS, AS DEPENDING ON THE TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF THE
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DISTURBANCES IN THE EAST PACIFIC COULD LEAD TO INCREASED
RISK OF HIGH WINDS FOR SOUTHERN ALASKA. A MODERATE RISK (40-60% CHANCE) OF HIGH
WINDS IS DESIGNATED FOR COASTAL PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
ALASKA, OCT 9-11, BASED ON WHERE THE ECENS PET OF WIND SPEEDS EXCEEDING THE
85TH PERCENTILE AND 40 MPH, MODEL GUIDANCE OF INCREASED PROBABILITIES OF 10M
WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 50 KNOTS (ABOUT 57 MPH), AND GOOD DAY TO DAY MODEL
CONSISTENCY REGARDING THE PATTERN. A BROADER AREA OF SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS
IS POSTED FOR COASTAL PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN, SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
ALASKA, THE ALASKA PENINSULA, AND ALEUTIANS FOR OCT 9-13, WHERE THE GEFS AND
ECENS PETS INDICATE AT LEAST A 20% CHANCE OF WIND SPEEDS EXCEEDING THE 85TH
PERCENTILE FURTHER SUPPORTED BY UNCALIBRATED GUIDANCE INDICATING ELEVATED
PROBABILITIES OF WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 50 KNOTS. BASED ON THE ENHANCED ONSHORE
FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THESE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS, AND SUPPORT FROM THE ECENS AND
GEFS PETS (20% CHANCE OF 3-DAY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS > 85TH PERCENTILE AND 2-3
INCHES), A SLIGHT RISK OF EPISODIC HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS MAINTAINED FROM THE
KENAI PENINSULA TO SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA, ALSO VALID OCT 9-13. RECENT
DETERMINISTIC MODELS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR DAILY TOTALS EXCEEDING 2-3
INCHES.
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE VERY LIKELY ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS UNDER
BUILDING RIDGING. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT DURING THE WEEK-1 PERIOD HIGH
TEMPERATURES MAY REACH IMPACTFUL LEVELS, AND WHILE VERY ANOMALOUSLY WARM
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY WELL INTO THE FIRST HALF OF OCTOBER, AT THIS TIME
FORECAST GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE INDICATION OF THE POTENTIAL FOR DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES TO REACH HAZARDOUS CRITERIA DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD, SO NO HAZARD
IS ISSUED AT THIS TIME.
FORECASTER: DANNY BARANDIARAN
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