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FXUS21 KWNC 021831
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT OCTOBER 02 2026
SYNOPSIS: A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF COAST, ALONG WITH DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE IS FAVORED TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD HEAVY AND POTENTIALLY
HAZARDOUS PRECIPITATION AND HIGH WINDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
WEEK-2, PARTICULARLY ALONG THE EASTERN GULF COAST EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND MID-LEVELS IS FAVORED TO TRANSIT FROM THE
BERING SEA TO THE GULF OF ALASKA, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WINDS AND
HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE
STATE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HAZARDS
MODERATE RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GULF COAST AS
WELL AS MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA, AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA, SAT-MON,
OCT 10-12.
SLIGHT RISK OF EPISODIC HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR FLORIDA AND COASTAL PORTIONS OF
THE GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST INCLUDING THE COASTAL CAROLINAS, SAT-WED, OCT
10-14.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS FOR COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST, SAT-WED, OCT
10-14
MODERATE RISK OF HIGH WINDS FOR THE ALASKAN PENINSULA, THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
THE MAINLAND, AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF COASTAL SOUTHEAST ALASKA, SAT-SUN, OCT
10-11.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN,
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA, THE ALASKA PENINSULA, AND ALEUTIANS,
SAT-TUE, OCT 10-13.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
ALASKA, SAT-TUE, OCT 10-13.
FLOODING POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN GULF COAST, AND NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
FLORIDA.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR MONDAY OCTOBER 05 - FRIDAY OCTOBER 09:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR SATURDAY OCTOBER 10 - FRIDAY OCTOBER 16: THE GEFS AND ECENS CONTINUE TO BE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT, INDICATING AMPLIFYING 500-HPA RIDGING (TROUGHING) OVER
WESTERN (EASTERN) NORTH AMERICA DURING EARLY OCTOBER. A STATIONARY FRONT IS
ANTICIPATED TO STRETCH FROM THE GULF COAST TO POTENTIALLY NEAR OR ALONG THE
COASTAL SOUTHEAST SOUTH OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE EAST. THIS PATTERN
SUPPORTS A PROLONGED PERIOD OF EPISODIC HEAVY RAINFALL FOR MUCH OF THE GULF
COAST, FLORIDA, AND ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST UP TO THE OUTER BANKS THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF WEEK-2. TODAY'S GUIDANCE IS WEAKER TOWARDS THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD, THEREFORE THE PRE-EXISTING SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION
IS SHORTENED IN DURATION, NOW VALID OCT 10-14. THE GEFS AND ECENS PROBABILISTIC
EXTREMES TOOLS (PETS) ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING AT LEAST A 20% CHANCE OF
3-DAY PRECIPITATION TOTALS EXCEEDING THE 85TH PERCENTILE AND ONE INCH ACROSS
THE DESIGNATED HAZARD AREA. A MODERATE RISK (40-60% CHANCE) OF HEAVY
PRECIPITATION IS DESIGNATED FOR THE EASTERN GULF COAST, NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
FLORIDA AND HAS BEEN EXPANDED NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA, VALID OCT 10-12,
WHERE THE ECENS AND GEFS PETS HAVE BOTH INCREASED COVERAGE OF AT LEAST A 40%
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING ACCUMULATED TOTALS OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES IN 3-DAYS, FURTHER
SUPPORTED BY UNCALIBRATED GUIDANCE. THE SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION
DISCUSSED ABOVE HAS BEEN CORRESPONDINGLY EXPANDED NORTHWARD. FURTHERMORE,
MULTIPLE MODELS ARE INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL DISTURBANCES
ORIGINATING IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THAT WOULD ENHANCE ONSHORE FLOW, FURTHER
ENHANCING HEAVY RAIN, AND MAY ALSO BRING ENHANCED WIND SPEEDS TO THE REGION,
SUPPORTING A SLIGHT RISK OF EPISODIC HIGH WINDS FOR THE GULF COAST. MULTIPLE
PETS INDICATE AT LEAST A 20% CHANCE OF WIND SPEEDS EXCEEDING THE 85TH
PERCENTILE AND 25 MPH IN THIS AREA. AS WITH THE SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY
PRECIPITATION, MODEL GUIDANCE TODAY IS NOT AS STRONG REGARDING THE POTENTIAL
FOR WIND LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD, THEREFORE THE SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS
ALONG THE GULF COAST HAS BEEN SHORTENED TO COVER OCT 10-14. ANTICIPATED HEAVY
RAINFALL AND STRONG ONSHORE FLOW, COMBINED WITH EXPECTED ENHANCED RAINFALL
TOTALS FROM WEEK-1, COULD LEAD TO WIDESPREAD POTENTIAL FOR URBAN AND FLASH
FLOODING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF COAST. THEREFORE A FLOODING POSSIBLE HAZARD
REMAINS VALID FOR THE AFFECTED REGION. CAUTION IS HIGHLY ADVISED WITH REGARD TO
FLOODED ROADS AND WATERWAYS AND IF WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS OCCURRING IN YOUR
AREA UNNECESSARY TRAVEL IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED.
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED 500-HPA TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC IS LIKELY TO
PROMOTE A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS THAT TRACK FROM THE BERING SEA AND
ALASKA PENINSULA EASTWARD TO THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE GREATEST CONCERN REGARDING
IMPACTS WOULD BE FOR HIGH WINDS, AS DEPENDING ON THE TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF THE
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DISTURBANCES IN THE EAST PACIFIC COULD LEAD TO INCREASED
RISK OF HIGH WINDS FOR SOUTHERN ALASKA. ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS TODAY DEPICT A
STRONGER SURFACE LOW AND LARGER COVERAGE OF TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENTS COMPARED
TO YESTERDAY, WARRANTING AN EXPANSION OF THE MODERATE RISK (40-60% CHANCE) OF
HIGH WINDS WESTWARD TO COVER ALL OF THE SOUTHERN COAST AND THE ALASKAN
PENINSULA FOR THE PERIOD OCT 10-11, BASED ON WHERE THE ECENS PET SHOW ENHANCED
CHANCES OF WIND SPEEDS EXCEEDING THE 85TH PERCENTILE AND 40 MPH, AND GOOD DAY
TO DAY MODEL CONSISTENCY REGARDING THE PATTERN. A BROADER AREA OF SLIGHT RISK
(20-40% CHANCE) OF HIGH WINDS IS POSTED FOR COASTAL PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN,
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA, THE ALASKA PENINSULA, AND ALEUTIANS FOR
OCT 10-13, WHERE THE GEFS AND ECENS PETS INDICATE AT LEAST A 20% CHANCE OF WIND
SPEEDS EXCEEDING THE 85TH PERCENTILE FURTHER SUPPORTED BY UNCALIBRATED GUIDANCE
INDICATING ELEVATED PROBABILITIES OF WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 50 KNOTS. BASED ON
THE ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THESE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS, AND
SUPPORT FROM THE ECENS AND GEFS PETS (20% CHANCE OF 3-DAY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
> 85TH PERCENTILE AND 2-3 INCHES), A SLIGHT RISK OF EPISODIC HEAVY
PRECIPITATION IS MAINTAINED FROM THE KENAI PENINSULA TO SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA,
ALSO VALID OCT 10-13. RECENT DETERMINISTIC MODELS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
DAILY TOTALS EXCEEDING 2-3 INCHES.
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE VERY LIKELY ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS UNDER
BUILDING RIDGING. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT DURING THE WEEK-1 PERIOD HIGH
TEMPERATURES MAY REACH IMPACTFUL LEVELS, AND WHILE VERY ANOMALOUSLY WARM
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY WELL INTO THE FIRST HALF OF OCTOBER, AT THIS TIME
FORECAST GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE INDICATION OF THE POTENTIAL FOR DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES TO REACH HAZARDOUS CRITERIA DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD, SO NO HAZARD
IS ISSUED AT THIS TIME.
FORECASTER: DANNY BARANDIARAN
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