036
FXUS21 KWNC 051916
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT OCTOBER 05 2026
SYNOPSIS: A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF COAST, ALONG WITH
POTENTIALLY DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AND POSSIBLE SURFACE LOW FORMATION NEAR OR
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST, IS FAVORED TO CONTINUE INCREASED CHANCES OF EPISODIC
HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE END OF WEEK-1 INTO WEEK-2, ACROSS PORTIONS OF FLORIDA,
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST, AND THE SOUTHEAST, INCLUDING PARTS OF THE
CAROLINAS. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BERING SEA, ALASKA PENINSULA, AND THE
GULF OF ALASKA, IN ADDITION TO REMNANTS OF RECURVING TYPHOONS IN THE WEST
PACIFIC, MAY IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ALASKA. THERE IS AN INCREASED
LIKELIHOOD OF EPISODIC HIGH WINDS ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS, ALASKA PENINSULA, AND
COASTAL PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN, SOUTHCENTRAL, AND SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA
THROUGHOUT WEEK-2 AS WELL AS HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF SOUTHCENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE PERIOD.
HAZARDS
SLIGHT RISK OF EPISODIC HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR FLORIDA, CENTRAL AND EASTERN
GULF COAST, AND SOUTHEAST INCLUDING THE CAROLINAS, TUE-WED, OCT 13-14.
SLIGHT RISK OF PERIODS OF HIGH WINDS FOR MOST OF THE GULF COAST, TUE-SAT, OCT
13-17.
MODERATE RISK OF PERIODS OF HIGH WINDS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
ALASKA, TUE-SAT, OCT 13-17.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS, ALASKA PENINSULA, AND COASTAL
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN, SOUTHCENTRAL, AND SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA, TUE-SAT, OCT
13-17.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
ALASKA, THU-SAT, OCT 15-17.
FLOODING POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION,
INCLUDING NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR THURSDAY OCTOBER 08 - MONDAY OCTOBER 12:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR TUESDAY OCTOBER 13 - MONDAY OCTOBER 19: IN GENERAL, MULTIPLE MODEL ENSEMBLE
MEANS INDICATE A MORE AMPLIFIED 500 HPA PATTERN COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, ALTHOUGH
WITH NOTABLE DISAGREEMENT AMONG THEM REGARDING THE PATTERN. THE ECENS, CMCE,
AND GEFS-AI FAVOR SURFACE MID-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS
PROPAGATING EASTWARD TO THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGHOUT WEEK-2, WHEREAS THE GEFS
INDICATES A MORE PERSISTENT AMPLIFIED RIDGE (TROUGH) ACROSS THE WEST (EAST).
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT, HOWEVER, REGARDING AMPLIFIED TROUGHING ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC SUPPORTING AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR SOUTHERN ALASKA.
A STATIONARY FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO EXTEND ALONG COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE GULF
COAST AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS FROM THE END OF WEEK-1 INTO WEEK-2. ADDITIONALLY,
POTENTIALLY ENHANCED MOISTURE TO THESE REGIONS ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANTS OF
POSSIBLE TROPICAL ACTIVITY DURING WEEK-1 COULD ENHANCE RAINFALL IN THESE AREAS.
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AS OF 2PM EDT HAS A 80% (HIGH) CHANCE OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION WITHIN THE NEXT 7-DAYS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. A SLIGHT
RISK OF LINGERING HEAVY PRECIPITATION FROM THE END OF WEEK-1 INTO WEEK-2 IS
DESIGNATED FOR FLORIDA, CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST, AND SOUTHEAST INCLUDING
THE CAROLINAS, OCT 13-14. THE GEFS AND ECENS PROBABILISTIC EXTREMES TOOLS
(PETS) INDICATE AT LEAST A 20% CHANCE OF 3-DAY RAINFALL EXCEEDING THE 85TH
PERCENTILE CLIMATOLOGICALLY AND ONE INCH ACROSS THE HIGHLIGHTED REGION, FURTHER
SUPPORTED BY DAILY AND 3-DAY ACCUMULATED UNCALIBRATED PRECIPITATION, ALTHOUGH
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW MUCH OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL REMAINS
OFFSHORE.
ANTICIPATED HEAVY RAINFALL DURING WEEK-2 AND STRONG ONSHORE FLOW, COMBINED WITH
EXPECTED ENHANCED RAINFALL TOTALS FROM WEEK-1 (RANGING FROM 3-7+ INCHES NEAR
THE COAST), COULD LEAD TO WIDESPREAD POTENTIAL FOR URBAN AND FLASH FLOODING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. A POSSIBLE FLOODING HAZARD REMAINS VALID FOR
MUCH OF THE GULF COAST REGION INCLUDING NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA. CAUTION
IS HIGHLY ADVISED WITH REGARD TO FLOODED ROADS AND WATERWAYS AND IF WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IS OCCURRING IN YOUR AREA, UNNECESSARY TRAVEL IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED.
AN AMPLIFIED 500-HPA TROUGH OVER THE BERING SEA AND WESTERN ALASKA IS LIKELY TO
PROMOTE A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS THAT TRACK FROM THE BERING SEA AND
ALASKA PENINSULA EASTWARD TO THE GULF OF ALASKA. ADDITIONALLY, AN ACTIVE
PATTERN OF TYPHOONS IN THE WESTERN PACIFIC IS ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE INTO
WEEK-2, WHICH OFTEN RECURVE AND MAY ENHANCE WIND SPEEDS AND PRECIPITATION, WITH
THE IMPACT OF HIGH WINDS BEING OF GREATEST CONCERN. A MODERATE RISK (40-60%
CHANCE) OF EPISODIC HIGH WINDS IS POSTED FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
ALASKA, OCT 13-17, WITH A BROADER SLIGHT RISK (20-40% CHANCE) ACROSS THE
ALEUTIANS, ALASKA PENINSULA, AND COASTAL PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN,
SOUTHCENTRAL, AND SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA FOR THE SAME VALID PERIOD. PETS INDICATE
ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF WIND SPEEDS EXCEEDING THE 85TH PERCENTILE AND 40 MPH
IN THE HIGHLIGHTED RISK AREAS, FURTHER SUPPORTED BY ENSEMBLES SHOWING INCREASED
CHANCES OF WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 50 KNOTS (57 MPH). A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY
PRECIPITATION IS DESIGNATED FOR PARTS OF SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA
FOR THE MIDDLE OF WEEK-2 (OCT 15-17) WHEN AND WHERE MODELS INDICATE THE
GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION, WITH PETS INDICATING AT LEAST A 20%
CHANCE OF 3-DAY ACCUMULATED PRECIPITATION EXCEEDING THE 85TH PERCENTILE AND
UNCALIBRATED DAILY TOTALS REACHING 2 INCHES OR GREATER.
FORECASTER: MELISSA OU
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