440
FXUS21 KWNC 061745
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT OCTOBER 06 2026
SYNOPSIS: A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY LINGER ACROSS OR NEAR THE GULF COAST
AND FLORIDA FROM THE END OF WEEK-1 INTO WEEK-2. THERE MAY BE LOCALIZED AREAS OF
HEAVY PRECIPITATION IN THE REGION, BUT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ANTICIPATED
TO BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST, THERE IS DECREASED CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAIN. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BERING SEA, ALASKA PENINSULA, AND THE GULF
OF ALASKA, IN ADDITION TO REMNANTS OF RECURVING TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY IN
THE WEST PACIFIC, MAY IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ALASKA. AS A RESULT, THERE IS
AN INCREASED LIKELIHOOD OF EPISODIC HIGH WINDS ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS, ALASKA
PENINSULA, AND COASTAL PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN, SOUTHCENTRAL, AND SOUTHEASTERN
ALASKA THROUGHOUT WEEK-2 AS WELL AS HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE PERIOD.
HAZARDS
MODERATE RISK OF PERIODS OF HIGH WINDS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
ALASKA, WED-SUN, OCT 14-18.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS, ALASKA PENINSULA, AND COASTAL
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN, SOUTH-CENTRAL, AND SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA, WED-SUN, OCT
14-18.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
ALASKA, THU-SUN, OCT 15-18.
FLOODING POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION,
INCLUDING NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR FRIDAY OCTOBER 09 - TUESDAY OCTOBER 13:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR WEDNESDAY OCTOBER 14 - TUESDAY OCTOBER 20: THE GEFS, ECENS, AND CMCE
ENSEMBLE MEANS INDICATE MID-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE INTERIOR WEST AT THE
BEGINNING OF WEEK-2 SHIFTING EASTWARD WITH TIME. THE ECENS RETAINS A STRONGER
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS WITH NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGHING PROPAGATING EASTWARD. MEANWHILE THE GEFS HAS A MORE AMPLIFIED RIDGE
(TROUGH) ACROSS THE WEST (EAST), AND THE CMCE MORE AKIN TO THE ECENS. ANOMALOUS
WARMTH IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE WESTERN CONUS BUT NO HEAT HAZARDS ANTICIPATED AT
THIS TIME. THERE CONTINUES TO BE GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS REGARDING
AMPLIFIED TROUGHING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC SUPPORTING AN ACTIVE PERIOD
OF WEATHER FOR SOUTHERN ALASKA.
A STATIONARY FRONT MAY LINGER ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND FLORIDA FROM THE END OF
WEEK-1 INTO WEEK-2. THIS PATTERN MAY BRING LOCALIZED ENHANCED PRECIPITATION
ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME THERE IS LESS SUPPORT IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE AND TOOLS OF
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION FOR THE REGION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ANTICIPATED TO
BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST DECREASING CHANCES OF HEAVY RAIN, WITH MUCH OF THE
POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL DISTURBANCES FROM THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE EXPECTED TO TIME OUT BY THE BEGINNING OF WEEK-1. THEREFORE THE SLIGHT
RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS DISCONTINUED AT THIS TIME. RAINFALL IN THE
REGION DURING WEEK-2, EVEN IF NOT CONSIDERED HEAVY, MAY SUPPORT CONTINUED
POSSIBLE FLOODING ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF COAST REGION INCLUDING NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL FLORIDA GIVEN ANTICIPATED HEAVY RAIN DURING WEEK-1 (RANGING FROM 3-5+
INCHES NEAR THE COAST). CAUTION IS HIGHLY ADVISED WITH REGARD TO FLOODED ROADS
AND WATERWAYS AND IF WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS OCCURRING IN YOUR AREA.
AN AMPLIFIED 500-HPA TROUGH OVER THE BERING SEA AND WESTERN ALASKA IS LIKELY TO
PROMOTE A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS THAT TRACK FROM THE BERING SEA AND
ALASKA PENINSULA EASTWARD TO THE GULF OF ALASKA. ADDITIONALLY, TROPICAL
ACTIVITY IN THE WESTERN PACIFIC IS ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE INTO WEEK-2, WHICH
OFTEN RECURVE, BECOME ABSORBED IN THE WESTERLIES, AND MAY ENHANCE WIND SPEEDS
AND PRECIPITATION DOWNSTREAM OVER ALASKA, WITH THE IMPACT OF HIGH WINDS BEING
OF GREATEST CONCERN. A MODERATE RISK (40-60% CHANCE) OF EPISODIC HIGH WINDS IS
POSTED FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA, OCT 14-18, WITH A BROADER
SLIGHT RISK (20-40% CHANCE) ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS, ALASKA PENINSULA, AND COASTAL
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN, SOUTHCENTRAL, AND SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA FOR THE SAME
VALID PERIOD. PETS INDICATE ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF WIND SPEEDS EXCEEDING THE
85TH PERCENTILE AND 40 MPH IN THE HIGHLIGHTED RISK AREAS, FURTHER SUPPORTED BY
ENSEMBLES SHOWING INCREASED CHANCES OF WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 50 KNOTS (57 MPH).
A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS DESIGNATED FOR PARTS OF SOUTHCENTRAL
AND SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA FOR OCT 14-18 WHEN AND WHERE MODELS INDICATE THE
GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION, WITH PETS INDICATING AT LEAST A 20%
CHANCE OF 3-DAY ACCUMULATED PRECIPITATION EXCEEDING THE 85TH PERCENTILE AND
UNCALIBRATED DAILY TOTALS REACHING 2 INCHES OR GREATER.
FORECASTER: MELISSA OU
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